Slowing Growth, Thriving Tech
Despite slowing economic growth, China’s industrial and tech strength remains formidable. Its economy is ~75% the size of the U.S. in dollar terms, but China accounts for 33% of global manufacturing value-added, projected to rise to 49% by 2050. “China is very strong in all sorts of advanced manufacturing... in many cases it is almost entirely a Chinese concern.”

The gap is vast, according to another panelist: in 2023, China had 1,500 commercial ships under construction; the U.S. had three. Non-state firms drive export growth, crowding out for shrinking shares of foreign-led exports (60% to 30%). “There is plenty of profitable activity going on, especially in the non-state sector.”

Meanwhile, Made in China 2025 has paid dividends. “At a first approximation, it looks like a pretty good success,” said one panelist, citing EVs, clean tech, and automation, but admitted that weaknesses persist in sectors like semiconductors and aerospace. Nevertheless, China’s highly competent manufacturers, tech companies, and deep reservoir of human capital ensure that despite costly and inefficient industrial policies, China still has “a good amount of fuel left in the tank.”

Rather than stagnating like Japan in the 1990s, panelists agreed China would more closely resemble a “Leninist Germany”—an authoritarian state with a globally competitive, export-driven, tech-intensive economy.

An Enduring Value Proposition for the World, but Pushback is Growing 
Around the world China is embedding itself in local production ecosystems. Several panelists described how Chinese firms have established smartphone assembly plants in Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Indonesia. EV assembly and battery processing plants have followed, particularly in Zimbabwe and the DRC. In practice, countries receiving China’s investment often express more concern about being left behind by the West than overwhelmed by China.

China’s outbound investment is not just commercial; it is also strategic. As one panelist put it, this “industrial diplomacy” steers capital toward geopolitically friendly or economically useful countries—especially those with preferential trade access to the U.S. or E.U., like Mexico and Morocco—and away from places perceived as hostile, such as India.

This strategy has helped China rebuild global supply chains with itself at the center, creating new production ecosystems around batteries, robotics, AI, and advanced manufacturing. As one expert noted, firms like BYD, Xiaomi, and Huawei are at the core of “interlocking industrial ecosystems” that tie together multiple cutting-edge sectors across borders.

Yet pushback is growing. In 2023, 117 of 198 World Trade Organization complaints against China came from low- and middle-income countries. These nations aren’t rejecting Chinese investment, panelists pointed out—they’re renegotiating harder, hedging more, and believing less.

The conference underscored a world in flux—one where China’s industrial and technological dynamism continues to reshape global supply chains even as its assertive statecraft provokes growing resistance. While some panelists warned of the breakdown of integrationist hopes, others saw opportunity in a more defined and stable strategic rivalry, even if it takes the form of a new cold war. A key takeaway was the paradox of China’s global role: it remains an important source of growth and innovation, yet inspires distrust that is prompting nations to pursue more reciprocal, conditional partnerships. In navigating this uncertain era, both China and the West appear to be groping toward a new equilibrium—messy, complex, and decidedly post-unipolar.

Discover more from the 2025 SCCEI China Conference. 
 

Urgent Rethink Needed on U.S-China Trade and Technological Competition
Stein also pushed back against long-held assumptions that the U.S. market alone can dictate global business trends. The notion that “the only market that matters is the U.S. market” no longer holds, noting that Chinese consumers and innovation ecosystems now play a decisive role in shaping product development and global supply chains. He noted that European businesses have expressed a radical shift in strategy, they said, “we've been in China for Asia, in North America, for the Americas…We're now going from that model to what could very well become an, ‘in China for China and the world minus one.’ And the minus one is, of course, the U.S. market.”

On the technology front, he offered a candid evaluation of the U.S.-China competition. Stein reflected on the current state of artificial intelligence in China and the U.S., he said, “ at the end of the day it's not who has the best model; a good enough model is a good enough model, where it really makes a difference is in the application…and I see China racing ahead in the application of AI.” 

Know Your Competitor
Stein concluded with a call for more measured and constructive engagement. He urged both Washington and Beijing to establish clearer rules of the road, maintain open lines of communication, and invest in policy solutions that reduce uncertainty rather than amplify it.

Stein’s keynote offered a business-grounded counterpoint to prevailing narratives of decoupling and confrontation. His insights reinforced the importance of understanding the full complexity of economic interdependence, as well as China’s capacity for global market disruption, and the costs of miscalculation. As part of the broader SCCEI China Conference, his remarks served as a reminder that if America does not properly understand its competitor, efforts to stay ahead may well backfire and erode U.S. strength and global standing. 

A full recording of Sean Stein’s keynote is available on YouTube and below.

China’s Global Ambitions
In response to a question posed by Professor Li, Economy said, “I think, under Xi Jinping, there are big ambitions.” She followed by listing out several of China’s objectives including:

1. Become the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific, which begins with China's sovereignty claims around Taiwan, Hong Kong and the South China Sea;
2. Continue to have the international business community be dependent on China for parts of its supply chain;
3. Create an insulated domestic economy that is protected from pressures of the global economy but at the same time exerts enormous influence on it;
4. Shape the geostrategic and political landscape in new ways through programs like the Belt and Road Initiative and through its behavior in international institutions;
5. De-dollarize the global economy and increase the role of the Chinese currency.

Economy concluded by sharing that China has “a number of big ambitions, none of which actually coincides with us,” and although there are certainly areas for collaboration between China and the U.S., she’s not sure the current U.S. administration is interested in exploring them.

Economy’s address was a highlight of the SCCEI China Conference, which featured panels and presentations from leading scholars and practitioners on China’s economy, governance, and international strategy. The event reflects SCCEI’s mission to promote policy-relevant research and open dialogue on China’s role in the global economy.

A full recording of Dr. Economy’s talk is available on YouTube and below.

Key Takeaways

• China's national government recognizes a significant challenge in rural communities: the high rate of developmental delays in children. These delays are not primarily due to genetic factors, health, or nutrition, but are largely attributed to a lack of stimulating home environments. Addressing this issue through improved understanding of the importance of engaging ECD at home can make a substantial difference.
• Experts, including academics and top health officials, believe this challenge is solvable. The research of REAP and its collaborators has been seminal in providing the basis for addressing both the problems and the solutions. By training caregivers - primarily mothers and grandmothers - on how to engage with their children through reading, storytelling, and interactive play, children who are mildly or moderately delayed can achieve normal development. However, current programs are thought to be too costly (given shortages of fiscal resources in many regions of China), highlighting the urgent need to develop both effective and affordable strategies for equipping parents to create enriching home environments for ECD. Supporting caregiver training initiatives is critical for addressing the challenges of developmental delays in rural schoolchildren.

The conference highlighted the importance of continued research, collaboration, and innovation to advance ECD and achieve high-quality population development. Both REAP and the 1000-Day Initiative was recognized for its contributions to exploring intervention models and fostering ECD in China.

Experience sharing. Many of the presentations and reports showed that investing in ECD projects is effective. One-on-one intervention models tailored to children and caregivers significantly enhance developmental outcomes. Training caregivers in health, nutrition, and mental health amplifies the impact of these initiatives. By focusing on underserved communities and understanding success factors, the lives of young children and their families can be transformed by ensuring ECD projects reach those in need and deliver meaningful benefits.

Researching cost effectiveness - and effectiveness. While it is known that it is possible to intervene and address the basic ECD challenges in rural China, one of the main goals now of academic and policy officials is to identify interventions that are also cost effective. Shen Yun, a postdoctoral scholar at REAP/Stanford University, is running a group-based training project in Zhejiang Province using a one-on-five approach to enhance early learning. In Hubei Province, Xiao Yuyin, also a REAP/Stanford University postdoctoral scholar, and Yiwei Qian, an associate professor at Southwest University of Finance and Economics (and former postdoctoral scholar at REAP/Stanford University) are principal investigators in an innovative "digital plus" intervention that combines digital technology with short-term (8-12 weeks), traditional one-on-one training methods. A cost-benefit analysis shows that if these interventions enhance cognition, language, and social-emotional skills, costs per child could drop to 30-40% of previous one-on-one training models, maximizing reach and impact. Professor Guan Hongyuan, Capital University School of Medicine, introduced a community-based parenting skills model emphasizing parental involvement in child development. These initiatives are vital in transforming education for young rural children.

Long-term impacts. In the presentation by Professor Wang Lei of Shaanxi Normal University (pictured right), the audience was shown the real importance of ECD training for mothers and grandmothers in fostering large, positive, short- and long-term child outcomes. In the longitudinal study with over 600 infants, about 300 received ECD training while the others did not. The results showed that not only did the treatment group children have significant improvements in cognition and language by age 3, even more outstanding is that the benefits of the 0 to 3 training program become even more pronounced by the ages of 5 and 10 and 11. When the treatment children were in the fifth grade, they also scored notably higher in math, indicating long-term academic advantages. This training encourages families to invest in their children's potential, promoting greater educational engagement. The study's title, "Same Village / Different Destinies," underscores the impact of early interventions on life trajectories. Support for ECD programs can help many children experience transformative benefits and create brighter futures.

Grassroots practices. Maternal and child health professionals from three pilot counties in eastern, central, and western China shared experiences from their ECD projects. Professors Shao Jie, Zhejiang University, and Li Guohong, Shanghai Jiaotong University, emphasized the vital need for high-quality nutrition and healthcare for young children. Their discussions highlight that improving these foundational elements is crucial for better health and developmental outcomes. By focusing on grassroots practices, these professionals aim to implement effective strategies to enhance the well-being of children and families in their communities. The study, presented by Dorien Emmers, an assistant professor at Belgium's KU Leuven University, showed that when 1- to 2-year old children have better health and nutrition, their levels of cognition rise faster in a stimulating home environment when they are 2 to 3 years of age.