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This paper empirically investigates the labor market effects of China’s 2007 VAT reform, which significantly reduced the tax cost of capital investment. Employing city-by-year variation in the reform, we demonstrate that the tax cuts increased the earnings of skilled workers and left the earnings of the unskilled workers unaffected. Moreover, we find limited impacts of the reform on employment for both skill groups. These results suggest that the tax incentives increased the relative demand for skills, thus resulting in a higher income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers.

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Labour Economics
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
Lingsheng Meng
Lingsheng Meng

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Spencer Smith is the Administrative Associate at the Rural Education Action Program (REAP) at Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI). He graduated magna cum laude from the University of Oregon in 2023 and holds a B.S. with honors in Political Science and Ethnic Studies. Prior to joining SCCEI, Spencer held several positions at the University of Oregon where he worked to enhance administrative processes, research operations, and academic programs at both the School of Law and the Lyllye Reynolds-Parker Black Cultural Center. His academic and professional experiences instilled in him a deep interest in participatory action research, cross-cultural collaboration, and project management, which led him to join REAP in the fall of 2024. While at SCCEI, Spencer will be working on a variety of projects that facilitate the administration of REAP’s research and programs.

Administrative Associate, Rural Education Action Program
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Heather Rahimi
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Why do authoritarian regimes charge political opponents with non-political crimes when they can levy charges directly related to opponents' political activism?

On October 3, 2024, Stanford Professor of Communication, Jennifer Pan, presented her recent research answering this question. Professor Pan and her research collaborators used experimental and observational data from China and found that, “disguising repression by charging opponents with non-political crimes undermines the moral authority of opponents, minimizing backlash and mobilization while increasing public support for repression.”

During the lecture, Pan detailed the survey she and her collaborators conducted in China and shared a case study using data from Weibo to illustrate how China uses select charges to manipulate the public's view of influential dissidents and induce self-censorship among other dissidents in an act of disguised repression.


 

SCCEI China Briefs: Translating academic research in evidence-based insights

SCCEI produced a China Brief based off of Professor Pan’s paper on disguised repression in China. Read the brief here for a synthesized recap of the paper. 
 



Watch the recorded lecture to learn more about the research and her findings. 
 

 

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Is It Me or the Economic System? Changing Evaluations of Inequality in China

The latest Big Data China feature examines Martin Whyte and Scott Rozelle's new survey results demonstrating that the Chinese populace increasingly attribute inequality to the economic system rather than individual ability.
Is It Me or the Economic System? Changing Evaluations of Inequality in China
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Decoding China’s Economic Slowdown: A Roundtable Discussion

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on China's recent economic slowdown and produced summary report of the discussion.
Decoding China’s Economic Slowdown: A Roundtable Discussion
Craig Allen speaks at SCCEI 2024 conference
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Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China

Craig Allen, the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, spoke on the evolving dynamics of technological leadership between the U.S. and China and their implications for the rest of the world.
Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China
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Why do authoritarian regimes charge political opponents with non-political crimes when they can levy charges directly related to opponents' political activism? Professor Pan presents her newest research during a Fall 2024 SCCEI event.

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China’s economy registered an average annual growth of 9.5% from the start of reforms in 1978 until 2019. Throughout this period, economic performance was a key indicator of China’s success and served as a critical pillar of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. Over the past five years, however, China’s leadership has taken an ideological turn under Xi Jinping, and economic growth has no longer been a top priority.

To examine the myriad factors behind China’s recent economic slowdown and, more importantly, consider where China might be headed, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized the fourth in their series of closed-door roundtables. Held in April 2024 and conducted under the Chatham House Rule, the roundtable brought together leading experts on the Chinese economy for a discussion focused on the following questions:

  1. What is the mix of determinants — cyclical, structural, and political — for slower economic growth in China?
  2. How much can China’s recent economic woes be attributed to Beijing’s own policy mistakes, and how much to tensions between China’s hybrid Leninist political regime and the dynamism of a market economy?
  3. What are the potential political, social, and geopolitical consequences of the slowdown?
  4. If the slowdown continues, or even worsens, could the leadership’s priorities shift? If so, what policy measures or structural reforms might reverse the slowdown and preempt some of the broader consequences?
     

In partnership with Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis

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Experts Convene Roundtable to Discuss China’s Property Sector Slowdown

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the extent, causes, and implications of China’s current property sector slowdown and produced a summary report of the discussion.
Experts Convene Roundtable to Discuss China’s Property Sector Slowdown
Fruit vendor walks through street in China with his bike and fruit on the back.
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Scholars Gather for Roundtable to Analyze Causes, Prospects, and Challenges of China’s Common Prosperity Program

SCCEI joins forces with the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) to convene private roundtables comprised of social science experts who conduct data-intensive research into timely issues confronting China’s economy.
Scholars Gather for Roundtable to Analyze Causes, Prospects, and Challenges of China’s Common Prosperity Program
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Experts Convene Roundtable to Discuss China’s Industrial Policy

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the scope, impact, and implications of China’s industrial policy and produced a summary report of the discussion.
Experts Convene Roundtable to Discuss China’s Industrial Policy
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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on China's recent economic slowdown and produced summary report of the discussion.

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How do state-controlled broadcasters reach foreign publics to engage in public diplomacy in the era of social media? Previous research suggests that features unique to social media, such as the ability to engage in two-way communication with audiences, provide state-controlled broadcasters new opportunities for online public diplomacy. In this paper, we examine what strategies were used by four Chinese state-controlled media outlets on Twitter to reach foreign publics as the Chinese Communist Party worked to expand its public diplomacy and international media outreach efforts. We find that all outlets increased the volume and diversity of content while none engaged in interactive, two-way communication with audiences, and none appeared to artificially inflate their follower count. One outlet, China Global Television Network, made outsized gains in followership, and it differs from the other Chinese outlets in that it was rebranded, it disseminated a relatively lower share of government-mandated narratives pertaining to China, and the tone of its reporting was more negative. These results show that during a period when Chinese state-controlled broadcasters gained followers on Twitter, outlets made limited use of features unique to social media and instead primarily used social media as a broadcast channel.

Journal Publisher
Political Communication
Authors
Yingjie Fan
Jennifer Pan
Jaymee Sheng
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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the extent, causes, and implications of China’s current property sector slowdown. The roundtable focused on China’s property sector, which has been a major engine of economic growth in China for over three decades. Through its large impact on local government revenues, the financial sector, household wealth, and employment, the property sector plays an outsized role in China’s economy – far more than in most other countries. 

By 2021, however, there were signs that China’s property sector may be reaching a peak, and even beginning to contract, potentially signifying wider distress in the economy. The property sector exemplifies an investment-driven growth model that China has pursued for the past few decades, and the policy responses to the current property downturn also has implications for how and whether China can transition toward an alternative, high-quality growth model less reliant on the property sector.  

The summary report of the roundtable, conducted under the Chatham House Rule, details the in-depth discussion that centered on four key questions:

  1. How sharp and sustained will the slowdown in China’s property sector be?
  2. What are the most important determinants of this slowdown: government policy or structural factors? 
  3. What are the implications of China’s property slowdown for other areas of China’s economy? 
  4. What can China do to offset risks and negative consequences associated with the property slowdown?

     


 

In partnership with Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis

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2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China

SCCEI’s Impact Team attended the 13th Annual China Business Conference held in Washington, D.C. in May 2023. The team shares insights from the conference on issues raised surrounding the troubled U.S.-China relationship.
2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China
Fruit vendor walks through street in China with his bike and fruit on the back.
News

Scholars Gather for Roundtable to Analyze Causes, Prospects, and Challenges of China’s Common Prosperity Program

SCCEI joins forces with the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) to convene private roundtables comprised of social science experts who conduct data-intensive research into timely issues confronting China’s economy.
Scholars Gather for Roundtable to Analyze Causes, Prospects, and Challenges of China’s Common Prosperity Program
Washington DC capitol buildings.
News

US-China Business Council President Shares Insights on US-China Relations in Private Roundtable

SCCEI hosted a private roundtable discussion with the president of the US-China Business Council, Craig Allen, and a select group of Stanford faculty and business leaders, discussing technology competition and the shifting business environment between the US and China.
US-China Business Council President Shares Insights on US-China Relations in Private Roundtable
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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the extent, causes, and implications of China’s current property sector slowdown and produced a summary report of the discussion.

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2023)



Friday, November 17, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way


How Digital Surveillance Justifies Massive Lockdowns in China During COVID-19
 

China’s draconian response to COVID-19 drew considerable criticism, with many suggesting that intense digital surveillance and harsh lockdowns triggered the unusual public dissent seen in China in late 2022. However, we argue that rather than backfiring, digital surveillance may have legitimized the government’s overreaction by making uncertain threats appear certain. We collected data on daily counts of lockdown communities and COVID cases from 2020 to 2023. Using a difference-in-differences approach with World Value Surveys (China 2012, 2018) and a nationwide online survey in 2023, we show that real-world lockdowns significantly reduced public perception of respect for human rights and trust in the government; however, these effects are moderated by the pervasiveness of COVID surveillance, proxied by cellphone usage. To establish causality, we use a survey experiment to show that digital surveillance indeed increases support for COVID lockdowns by making citizens more likely to believe they are close contacts. In contrast, surveillance cannot justify protest crackdowns. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in threats to public safety may foster support for state surveillance and coercion.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker 
 

Xu Xu headshot

Xu Xu is Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. Xu studies digital authoritarianism, political repression, and the political economy of development, with a regional focus on China. He is currently working on a book entitled Authoritarian Control in the Age of Digital Surveillance. His other ongoing projects examine the political aspects of artificial intelligence, social media propaganda, public opinion on state repression, and state-society relations in China. His work has appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and the Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, among other peer-reviewed journals.

He received his Ph.D. in political science from Pennsylvania State University in 2019, and was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University from 2020 to 2021.
 


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.



Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 


Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Xu Xu, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
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We study the effect of a victimization narrative on national identity and public opinion in China experimentally. Previous research has suggested that governments can shape public opinion by guiding citizens’ collective memories of historical events, but few studies have established a clear causal link. By conducting an online survey experiment among 1890 urban Chinese citizens, we examine the causal impact of historical narratives on political attitudes. We find that, compared to control conditions, a narrative focusing on China’s humiliating past in the late Qing significantly reinforces respondents’ attachment to the victim side of the Chinese national identity, raises suspicion of the intention of foreign governments in international disputes, stimulates preference for more hawkish foreign policies, and strengthens support for China’s current political system. These effects are particularly strong among respondents without a college degree.

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Research & Politics
Authors
Yiqing Xu
Jiannan Zhao
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Repression research examines the causes and consequences of actions or policies that are meant to, or actually do, raise the costs of activism, protest, and/or social movement activity. The rise of digital and social media has brought substantial increases in attention to the repression of digital activists and movements and/or to the use of digital tools in repression, which is spread across many disciplines and areas of study. We organize and review this growing welter of research under the concept of digital repression by expanding a typology that distinguishes actions based on actor type, whether actions are overt or covert, and whether behaviors are shaped by coercion or channeling. This delineation between broadly different forms of digital repression allows researchers to develop expectations about digital repression, better understand what is “new” about digital repression in terms of explanatory factors, and better understand the consequences of digital repression.

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Science Advances
Authors
Jennifer Earl
Thomas Maher
Jennifer Pan
Jennifer Pan
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Government censorship—internet shutdowns, blockages, firewalls—impose significant barriers to the transnational flow of information despite the connective power of digital technologies. In this paper, we examine whether and how information flows across borders despite government censorship. We develop a semi-automated system that combines deep learning and human annotation to find co-occurring content across different social media platforms and languages. We use this system to detect co-occurring content between Twitter and Sina Weibo as Covid-19 spread globally, and we conduct in-depth investigations of co-occurring content to identify those that constitute an inflow of information from the global information ecosystem into China. We find that approximately one-fourth of content with relevance for China that gains widespread public attention on Twitter makes its way to Weibo. Unsurprisingly, Chinese state-controlled media and commercialized domestic media play a dominant role in facilitating these inflows of information. However, we find that Weibo users without traditional media or government affiliations are also an important mechanism for transmitting information into China. These results imply that while censorship combined with media control provide substantial leeway for the government to set the agenda, social media provides opportunities for non-institutional actors to influence the information environment. Methodologically, the system we develop offers a new approach for the quantitative analysis of cross-platform and cross-lingual communication.

Journal Publisher
The International Journal of Press/Politics
Authors
Yingdan Lu
Jack Schaefer
Kunwoo Park
Jungseok Joo
Jennifer Pan
Jennifer Pan
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