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Policy Analysis

Experts Convene Roundtable to Discuss China’s Property Sector Slowdown

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 ROUNDTABLE SYNOPSIS     FULL REPORT 

 

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the extent, causes, and implications of China’s current property sector slowdown. The roundtable focused on China’s property sector, which has been a major engine of economic growth in China for over three decades. Through its large impact on local government revenues, the financial sector, household wealth, and employment, the property sector plays an outsized role in China’s economy – far more than in most other countries. 

By 2021, however, there were signs that China’s property sector may be reaching a peak, and even beginning to contract, potentially signifying wider distress in the economy. The property sector exemplifies an investment-driven growth model that China has pursued for the past few decades, and the policy responses to the current property downturn also has implications for how and whether China can transition toward an alternative, high-quality growth model less reliant on the property sector.  

The summary report of the roundtable, conducted under the Chatham House Rule, details the in-depth discussion that centered on four key questions:

  1. How sharp and sustained will the slowdown in China’s property sector be?
  2. What are the most important determinants of this slowdown: government policy or structural factors? 
  3. What are the implications of China’s property slowdown for other areas of China’s economy? 

  4. What can China do to offset risks and negative consequences associated with the property slowdown?

     

 

In partnership with Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis

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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the extent, causes, and implications of China’s current property sector slowdown and produced a summary report of the discussion.

Xu Xu | How Digital Surveillance Justifies Massive Lockdowns in China During COVID-19

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2023)


Friday, November 17, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way

How Digital Surveillance Justifies Massive Lockdowns in China During COVID-19
 

China’s draconian response to COVID-19 drew considerable criticism, with many suggesting that intense digital surveillance and harsh lockdowns triggered the unusual public dissent seen in China in late 2022. However, we argue that rather than backfiring, digital surveillance may have legitimized the government’s overreaction by making uncertain threats appear certain. We collected data on daily counts of lockdown communities and COVID cases from 2020 to 2023. Using a difference-in-differences approach with World Value Surveys (China 2012, 2018) and a nationwide online survey in 2023, we show that real-world lockdowns significantly reduced public perception of respect for human rights and trust in the government; however, these effects are moderated by the pervasiveness of COVID surveillance, proxied by cellphone usage. To establish causality, we use a survey experiment to show that digital surveillance indeed increases support for COVID lockdowns by making citizens more likely to believe they are close contacts. In contrast, surveillance cannot justify protest crackdowns. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in threats to public safety may foster support for state surveillance and coercion.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker 
 

Xu Xu headshot

Xu Xu is Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. Xu studies digital authoritarianism, political repression, and the political economy of development, with a regional focus on China. He is currently working on a book entitled Authoritarian Control in the Age of Digital Surveillance. His other ongoing projects examine the political aspects of artificial intelligence, social media propaganda, public opinion on state repression, and state-society relations in China. His work has appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and the Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, among other peer-reviewed journals.

He received his Ph.D. in political science from Pennsylvania State University in 2019, and was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University from 2020 to 2021.
 


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Xu Xu, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
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The Power of History: How Victimization Narrative Shapes National Identity and Public Opinion in China

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We study the effect of a victimization narrative on national identity and public opinion in China experimentally. Previous research has suggested that governments can shape public opinion by guiding citizens’ collective memories of historical events, but few studies have established a clear causal link. By conducting an online survey experiment among 1890 urban Chinese citizens, we examine the causal impact of historical narratives on political attitudes. We find that, compared to control conditions, a narrative focusing on China’s humiliating past in the late Qing significantly reinforces respondents’ attachment to the victim side of the Chinese national identity, raises suspicion of the intention of foreign governments in international disputes, stimulates preference for more hawkish foreign policies, and strengthens support for China’s current political system. These effects are particularly strong among respondents without a college degree.

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Research & Politics
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Yiqing Xu

The Digital Repression of Social Movements, Protest, and Activism: A Synthetic Review

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Repression research examines the causes and consequences of actions or policies that are meant to, or actually do, raise the costs of activism, protest, and/or social movement activity. The rise of digital and social media has brought substantial increases in attention to the repression of digital activists and movements and/or to the use of digital tools in repression, which is spread across many disciplines and areas of study. We organize and review this growing welter of research under the concept of digital repression by expanding a typology that distinguishes actions based on actor type, whether actions are overt or covert, and whether behaviors are shaped by coercion or channeling. This delineation between broadly different forms of digital repression allows researchers to develop expectations about digital repression, better understand what is “new” about digital repression in terms of explanatory factors, and better understand the consequences of digital repression.

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Science Advances
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Jennifer Pan

How Information Flows from the World to China

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Government censorship—internet shutdowns, blockages, firewalls—impose significant barriers to the transnational flow of information despite the connective power of digital technologies. In this paper, we examine whether and how information flows across borders despite government censorship. We develop a semi-automated system that combines deep learning and human annotation to find co-occurring content across different social media platforms and languages. We use this system to detect co-occurring content between Twitter and Sina Weibo as Covid-19 spread globally, and we conduct in-depth investigations of co-occurring content to identify those that constitute an inflow of information from the global information ecosystem into China. We find that approximately one-fourth of content with relevance for China that gains widespread public attention on Twitter makes its way to Weibo. Unsurprisingly, Chinese state-controlled media and commercialized domestic media play a dominant role in facilitating these inflows of information. However, we find that Weibo users without traditional media or government affiliations are also an important mechanism for transmitting information into China. These results imply that while censorship combined with media control provide substantial leeway for the government to set the agenda, social media provides opportunities for non-institutional actors to influence the information environment. Methodologically, the system we develop offers a new approach for the quantitative analysis of cross-platform and cross-lingual communication.

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Jennifer Pan

Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality in Lower-Income Countries with Prof. Grant Miller

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SCCEI Fall Seminar Series 

Tuesday, November 29, 2022      11:00 am -12:15 pm Pacific Time

Goldman Room E401, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way | Zoom Meeting 

Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality in Lower-Income Countries

About the Speaker

Grant Miller

As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Grant Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.

His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.

Seminar Series Moderators

Headshot of Dr. Scott Rozelle

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University.  For the past 30 years, he has worked on the economics of poverty reduction. Currently, his work on poverty has its full focus on human capital, including issues of rural health, nutrition and education. For the past 20 year, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Most recently, Rozelle's research focuses on the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition in China. In recognition of this work, Dr. Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards. Among them, he became a Yangtse Scholar (Changjiang Xuezhe) in Renmin University of China in 2008. In 2008 he also was awarded the Friendship Award by Premiere Wen Jiabao, the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner. 

 

hongbin li headshot

Hongbin Li is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, and a Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Hongbin obtained his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2001 and joined the economics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), where he became full professor in 2007. He was also one of the two founding directors of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the CUHK. He taught at Tsinghua University in Beijing 2007-2016 and was C.V. Starr Chair Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management. He founded the Chinese College Student Survey (CCSS) in 2009 and the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) in 2014.

Hongbin’s research has been focused on the transition and development of the Chinese economy, and the evidence-based research results have been both widely covered by media outlets and well read by policy makers around the world. He is currently the co-editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics.

A NOTE ON LOCATION

This seminar is a hybrid event. Please join us in person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing, or join remotely via Zoom.

Questions? Contact Heather Rahimi at hrahimi@stanford.edu

 

Scott Rozelle
Hongbin Li

Hybrid Event: Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall | Zoom Meeting

Grant Miller

Encina Commons Room 101,
615 Crothers Way,
Stanford, CA 94305-6006

(650) 723-2714 (650) 723-1919
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Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor
Professor, Health Policy
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Professor, Economics (by courtesy)
grant_miller_vert.jpeg PhD, MPP

As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.

His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.

Faculty Fellow, Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development
Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center for Latin American Studies
Faculty Affiliate, Woods Institute for the Environment
Faculty Affiliate, Interdisciplinary Program in Environment & Resources
Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Yiqing Xu

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Assistant Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
headshot2025.jpg PhD

Yiqing Xu is an Assistant Professor at Department of Political Science, Stanford University. His primary research covers methodology and comparative politics, focusing on China. He received a PhD in Political Science from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2016), an MA in Economics from China Center for Economic Research at Peking University (2010) and a BA in Economics (2007) from Fudan University.

His work has appeared in American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, Political Science Research and Methods, among other peer-reviewed journals. He has won several professional awards, including the best article award from American Journal of Political Science in 2016 and the Miller Prize (2018, 2020) for the best work appearing in Political Analysis the preceding year.

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Eric Hanushek

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Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Eric Hanushek is the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is internationally recognized for his economic analysis of educational issues, and his research has had broad influence on education policy in both developed and developing countries. He received the Yidan Prize for Education Research in 2021. He is the author of numerous widely-cited studies on the effects of class size reduction, school accountability, teacher effectiveness, and other topics. He was the first to research teacher effectiveness by measuring students’ learning gains, which forms the conceptual basis for using value-added measures to evaluate teachers and schools, now a widely adopted practice. His recent book, The Knowledge Capital of Nations: Education and the Economics of Growth summarizes his research establishing the close links between countries’ long-term rates of economic growth and the skill levels of their populations. His current research analyzes why some countries’ school systems consistently perform better than others. He has authored or edited twenty-four books along with over 250 articles. He is a Distinguished Graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and completed his Ph.D. in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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The AI-Surveillance Symbiosis in China: A Big Data China Event

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The event will be webcast live from this page.

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics launch the third feature of the new collaboration, Big Data China, on July 27 at 9 a.m. PDT / 12 p.m. EDT.  The feature, “The AI-Surveillance Symbiosis in China,” highlights the work of professors Noam Yuchtman (London School of Economics) and David Yang (Harvard University) and their colleagues. The feature shows how China‘s large-scale investments in surveillance technology is both enhancing the state‘s capacity to repress dissent and providing commercial advantage to Chinese AI companies operating in the facial recognition and surveillance space.


The event will feature a presentation of the key findings of the analysis and its implications for the Washington policy community by Noam Yuchtman of London School of Economics, David Yang of Harvard University, and Trustee Chair Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco. Trustee Chair Director Scott Kennedy will moderate a panel discussion which will include questions from the public and questions from the audience. The distinguished panelists for the event are: Emily Weinstein of CSET, Paul Mozur of the New York Times, and Trustee Chair non-resident senior associate Paul Triolo. 

WATCH THE RECORDING

FEATURING

Noam Yuchtman 
Professor of Managerial Economics and Strategy, London School of Economics and Political Science		David Yang 
Assistant Professor of Economics, Harvard University
Emily Weinstein  
Research Fellow, Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), Georgetown University		Paul Mozur 
Correspondent, New York Times
Scott Kennedy 
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Ilaria Mazzocco 
Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Paul Triolo 
Senior Associate (Non-resident), Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		 

EVENT PARTNERS
 

SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Scott Kennedy
Ilaria Mazzocco
Paul Mozur
Paul Triolo
Emily Weinstein
David Yang
Noam Yuchtman
Panel Discussions

China's Entrenched Inequality Problem: A Big Data China Event

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Big Data China logo
Join the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) for the launch of the second feature of their collaboration, Big Data China, on May 27, 12:00-1:15 pm ET. Our latest digital report, “How Inequality Is Undermining China’s Prosperity,” written by CSIS Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco, highlights the path-breaking work of Stanford scholars Scott Rozelle, Hongbin Li, and their colleagues. By analyzing data on inequality and its sources, the feature shows how trends in China’s labor market, educational attainment, automation, and rural employment are conspiring to harden inequality, which could hurt prospects for growth and undermine political stability. These developments will complicate how the United States should address the China challenge in the years ahead.

Following a presentation by Scott Rozelle of Stanford University on the key findings of the analysis and its implications for the Washington policy community, Trustee Chair Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco will moderate the panel discussion and questions from the audience. The distinguished panelists for the event include Mary Gallagher of the University of Michigan, Mary E. Lovely of the Peterson Institute and Syracuse University, and Martin K. Whyte of Harvard University.

Watch the Recording:

FEATURING

Scott Rozelle 
Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow, FSI and SIEPR, 
& Co-director, SCCEI,  
Stanford University		Mary Gallagher 
Professor, Democracy, Democratization, and Human Rights, University of Michigan
Mary E. Lovely 
Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute 
for International Economics; 
Professor Emeritus, Department 
of Economics, Syracuse University		Martin K. Whyte 
Professor Emeritus, International Studies and Sociology, Harvard University
Ilaria Mazzocco 
Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		 

 

EVENT PARTNERS
 

SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Mary Gallagher
Mary Lovely
Ilaria Mazzocco
Scott Rozelle
Martin Whyte
Panel Discussions
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