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The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this event on July 5 at 6 a.m. PT / 9 a.m. ET, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics present their latest Big Data China publication. The feature evaluates the efficacy of China’s official GDP growth data and potential alternative proxies. Based on interviews with over a dozen economists and collection of a wide assortment of data, the feature’s authors, Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy and Research Associate Maya Mei, find that although there is substantial skepticism about China’s official data, the majority of experts believe that proper analysis of China’s economic growth trajectory requires consideration of both the official data and a wide range of other metrics.

Following a brief presentation of the feature’s core findings, there will be a roundtable discussion about the pros and cons of the official data and various proxies. Panelists will include Daniel Rosen of the Rhodium Group, Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, and Yao Yang of Peking University.

FEATURING

Scott Kennedy 
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Maya Mei 
Research Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Daniel Rosen 
Senior Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Scott Rozelle 
Co-director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Anne Stevenson-Yang 
Managing Principal, J Capital Research
Yao Yang 
Dean, National School of Development, Peking University

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Virtual Livestream 

Scott Kennedy
Maya Mei
Daniel Rosen

Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
scott_rozelle_new_headshot.jpeg PhD

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.

His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.

Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. His book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, was published in 2020 by The University of Chicago Press. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.

In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.

Faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Faculty Affiliate at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Scott Rozelle
Anne Stevenson-Yang
Yao Yang
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Significance
One fundamental issue in economic, psychological, and social sciences is whether and how much income truly brings happiness. This paper draws on twins data to examine whether income indeed affects happiness and estimates the size of such an effect. We control for unobserved genetic factors that may impact both income and happiness using identical twins, address measurement error bias, and conduct a series of robustness checks. Income has a much larger effect than previous estimates: doubling income boosts the four-scale happiness value by 0.26 scales or 0.37 SDs. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that income matters most for males and the middle-aged. Our findings emphasize the importance of income maintenance for individuals’ well-being.


Abstract
We estimate the causal effect of income on happiness using a unique dataset of Chinese twins. This allows us to address omitted variable bias and measurement errors. Our findings show that individual income has a large positive effect on happiness, with a doubling of income resulting in an increase of 0.26 scales or 0.37 SDs in the four-scale happiness measure. We also find that income matters most for males and the middle-aged. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for various biases when studying the relationship between socioeconomic status and subjective well-being.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Authors
Hongbin Li
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On February 7, 2023, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) collaborated with the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics to host the Big Data China event, “How Private are Chinese Companies?” SCCEI’s co-director, Scott Rozelle, introduced the event while Scott Kennedy, the Trustee Chair Director, hosted. Professors Curtis Milhaupt of Stanford Law School and Lauren Yu-Hsin Lin of the City University of Hong Kong School of Law discussed their research (see two SCCEI China Briefs highlighting their work: China’s Corporate Social Credit System and Its Implications and CCP Influence Over China’s Corporate Governance). Their presentation was followed by a discussion of the implications for U.S.-China relations and U.S. policy with experts Barry Naughton of UC San Diego, Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Trustee Chair Senior Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco

Curtis Milhaupt and Lauren Yu-Hsin Lin’s research explored two separate channels of potential CCP influence over China’s corporations: i) a set of initiatives called the “party-building” or dangjian policy that China’s central government launched in 2015 intending to strengthen and formalize the role of the CCP in China’s SOEs; and ii) China’s corporate social credit system (CSCS), a data-driven scoring system to rate the “trustworthiness” of all business entities registered in China. Panelists offered some initial reactions, agreeing that Milhaupt and Lin’s findings suggest that there is indeed separation between the public sector and private sector, as the data show substantial variation in the ability of the party to exercise control of firms across the state-owned and private sectors. Nonetheless, the scope for a truly private sector is becoming increasingly narrower as the lines blur between the two sectors.  

The subsequent discussion included a range of implications for U.S.-China relations and suggestions for policy action. While panelists agreed that Lin and Milhaupt’s findings underscore important distinctions in the party’s role in state-owned and private firms, some suggested that because the lines are increasingly blurry, policymakers should essentially treat the two sectors the same way. However, others suggested that Lin and Milhaupt’s research could be used as a sort of “how-to guide” for policymakers in understanding the varying degrees of party influence in the private sector. Meanwhile, panelists collectively underscored the need for regulations on the U.S. side mandating transparency by China’s corporations in an effort to avoid ad hoc regulation created after problems emerge, as in the case of TikTok.

Watch the entire event below for more.

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China’s Marginalized Millions: How Beijing’s Failure to Invest in Rural Workers Hurts Economic Growth

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Hosted in collaboration with the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, this Big Data China event provided an overview of the latest data-driven research evaluating the influence of China’s party-state on China’s companies and their ability to maintain autonomy.

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We link industrial clusters, regional productivity and resource reallocation efficiency with geographical and sectoral disaggregated data. Based on a county-industry level panel from 1998 to 2007 in China, we find that industrial clusters significantly increase local industries' productivity by lifting the average firm productivity and reallocating resources from less to more productive firms. Moreover, we find major mechanisms through which resource reallocation is improved within clusters: (i) clusters are associated with a higher firm turnover with increased entry and exit rates simultaneously; and (ii) within clusters' environment, the dispersion of individual firm's markup is significantly reduced, indicating intensified local competition within clusters. Such results suggest that industrial clusters in China help improve regional productivity and resource allocation efficiency with intensified competition and accelerated firm dynamics. The identification issues are carefully addressed by two-stage estimations with instrumental variables and other robustness checks.

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Research Policy
Authors
Chenggang Xu
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In each of the three waves of the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports, the US government exempted some products on the originally proposed list from additional duties. Using these exempted products as the counterfactual, we identify modest but heterogeneous impacts of the tariffs on the value of US imports from China. We find a complete pass-through for the first and second waves of tariffs. However, unlike in previous studies, we estimate a very limited tariff pass-through of the third wave of tariffs. Finally, we find little import diversion for the US and significant export diversion for China.

Journal Publisher
Canadian Journal of Economics
Authors
Lingsheng Meng
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Big Data China logo

The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this event on February 7 at 8 a.m. PT / 11 a.m. ET, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics present their latest Big Data China publication. The feature provides an overview of the latest data-driven research evaluating the influence of the Chinese party-state on Chinese corporations and their ability to maintain autonomy.

CSIS Trustee Chair Director Scott Kennedy will host the event, which will include an introduction by Professor Scott Rozelle of Stanford University. Professors Curtis Milhaupt of Stanford Law School and Lauren Yu-Hsin Lin of the City University of Hong Kong School of Law will discuss their research on the topic, followed by a discussion on the implications for U.S.-China relations and U.S. policy with distinguished panellists Barry Naughton of UC San Diego, Martin Chorzempa of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and CSIS Trustee Chair Senior Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco.
 

WATCH THE EVENT RECORDING

FEATURING

Scott Kennedy 
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business 
and Economics
Ilaria Mazzocco 
Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Scott Rozelle 
Co-director at Stanford Center on China's Economy 
and Institutions
Barry Naughton 
So Kwan Lok Chair of Chinese International Affairs, UC San Diego
Curtis J. Milhaupt 
William F. Baxter-Visa International Professor of Law, Stanford Law School
Lauren Yu-Hsin Lin 
Associate Professor, School of Law, City University of Hong Kong
Martin Chorzempa 
Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
 
  

EVENT PARTNERS
 

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SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Martin Chorzempa
Scott Kennedy
Ilaria Mazzocco
Curtis J. Milhaupt
Barry Naughton
Scott Rozelle
Lauren Yu-Hsin Lin
Panel Discussions
Authors
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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the scope, impact, and implications of China’s industrial policy. The roundtable focused on an intensified round of industrial policies in China that gained momentum around 2014. Beijing announced its “Made in China 2025” plan in 2015, quickly followed by its 2016 “Innovation-driven Development Strategy.” The strategy specifically focused on the emerging technological revolution, targeting sectors such as next generation information technology, advanced manufacturing, biotechnology, and digital media. 

Since the announcements, industrial policy has increasingly become a central feature of Chinese economic development efforts and ongoing public debates about the future of U.S.-China competition and the global economic and geopolitical order. Around the world, effectiveness of national industrial policies has become a key point of policy and political contention. In addition, carefully judging the impact of Beijing’s industrial policy is also now critical to accurately assessing the long-term performance and sustainability of China’s economic growth model.

The full report on the roundtable, conducted under the Chatham House Rule, recounts a candid discussion that coalesced around the examination of five key questions:

  1. How much is China spending on industrial policy?
  2. What are the possible objectives of China’s industrial policy?
  3. What have been the effects of China’s industrial policy?
  4. What are the key, open questions still remaining around China’s industrial policy?
  5. What are the implications for Washington, D.C. and the international community?

 


 

In partnership with Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis

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US-China Business Council President Shares Insights on US-China Relations in Private Roundtable

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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on the scope, impact, and implications of China’s industrial policy and produced a summary report of the discussion.

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After nearly two decades of rising wages for those in the unskilled sectors of China's economy, in the mid-2010s employment and wages in China began to experience new polarizing trends. Using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this paper examines trends in multiple sectors and subeconomies of China, revealing the substantial rise of employment in informal, low-skilled services as well as the steady decline of wage growth in the informal subeconomy. At the same time, we find that although employment growth in the formal subeconomy is relatively moderate, wage growth in high-skilled services is steadily rising. These two trends pose a challenge for China, presenting a new and uncertain period of economic change.

Journal Publisher
The China Quarterly
Authors
Scott Rozelle
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This paper estimates the labor market impacts of parenthood in China. We find that becoming a mother has negative impacts on women's labor outcomes. But the impacts appear to recover sooner than what has been found in other countries. A decomposition exercise suggests that parenthood plays a limited role in explaining the large gender inequality in China's labor market. We document a form of intergenerational arrangement that is prevalent among Chinese families: Upon the arrival of a child, grandmothers substantially reduce market labor supply and provide much of the childcare. Grandparents’ help with childcare likely plays an important role in alleviating the motherhood effect. Suggestive evidence indicates that in return, grandparents who help with childcare receive more intra-family transfers and report higher subjective wellbeing. We further show that the motherhood effect, though relatively small, has increased substantially over the past decades. The rising gender gap in the labor market, the declining state sector that historically provides more flexible accommodations for working mothers, and the abolishment of the one-child policy all suggest a rising burden of motherhood on labor market outcomes.

Journal Publisher
Journal of Comparative Economics
Authors
Lingsheng Meng
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