Shirk began her talk by acknowledging the deterioration of relations between China and the U.S. and outlined how the last decade of policy evolution has shaped the relationship. Shirk focused on two major themes in her talk: 1) China's pattern of overreach over the past decade and 2) the U.S.’s habitual overreaction to counter China’s overreach. 

Shirk suggests that China has established a system that lacks checks and balance. Officials at every level compete to outdo one another while implementing leaders' directives, thus escalating the outcome to levels Xi Jinping may not have initially intended. This has led to a system of overreach that has provoked great global backlash. Shirk highlighted numerous examples of overreach, the most recent examples include the crackdown on the private sector in China, Beijing’s takeover of Hong Kong, and China's policy toward Russia. Shirk suggested that all of these acts characterize overreach and have prompted governments across the world to reduce their economic reliance on China and to lack confidence in the country. 

To counter China’s overreach, the worst mistake the rest of the world, and the United States in particular, can make is to overreact, says Shirk.  However, the U.S. has a pattern of overreacting to overreach with “anti-China policies that have become the bi-partisan axis of American politics.” These policies have become so ingrained in U.S. politics, that it has become difficult for American policy makers to think critically of their policies. Instead of overreacting with damaging policies, Shirk encourages a return to diplomacy between the two countries, noting that “understanding the domestic political drivers of foreign policy in both countries can help us stem the downward spiral in relations.” 

Listen to the recorded lecture here: 

 

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