Stanford University

Economic Affairs

The Guardian Quotes Scott Rozelle Speaking on China's Economy

Authors
News Type
News
Date
Hero Image
All News button
1
Subtitle

In the article, "Peak China? Jobs, local services and welfare strain under economy’s structural faults" Rozelle is quoted saying, "'You don’t turn yourself into a high-income country with [close to] 70% of your economy in the informal sector.'”

Date Label

"Measurement Problems: China's GDP Growth Data and Potential Proxies": A Big Data China Event

-

 

Big Data China logo

The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this event on July 5 at 6 a.m. PT / 9 a.m. ET, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics present their latest Big Data China publication. The feature evaluates the efficacy of China’s official GDP growth data and potential alternative proxies. Based on interviews with over a dozen economists and collection of a wide assortment of data, the feature’s authors, Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy and Research Associate Maya Mei, find that although there is substantial skepticism about China’s official data, the majority of experts believe that proper analysis of China’s economic growth trajectory requires consideration of both the official data and a wide range of other metrics.

Following a brief presentation of the feature’s core findings, there will be a roundtable discussion about the pros and cons of the official data and various proxies. Panelists will include Daniel Rosen of the Rhodium Group, Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, and Yao Yang of Peking University.

FEATURING

Scott Kennedy 
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Maya Mei 
Research Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Daniel Rosen 
Senior Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Scott Rozelle 
Co-director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Anne Stevenson-Yang 
Managing Principal, J Capital Research		Yao Yang 
Dean, National School of Development, Peking University

EVENT PARTNERS
 

SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Scott Kennedy
Maya Mei
Daniel Rosen

Scott Rozelle

Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

0
Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
scott_rozelle_new_headshot.jpeg
PhD

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.

His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.

Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.

In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.

Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions

Learn more
Faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Faculty Affiliate at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label
Scott Rozelle
Anne Stevenson-Yang
Yao Yang
Panel Discussions

Lingsheng Meng

John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building, 366 Galvez Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6015

0
Academic Research Scholar, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
lingsheng_meng_vert.jpg
PhD

Lingsheng Meng is an Academic Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI). His research interests are in the fields of labor economics, development economics, and public economics. So far, the bulk of his work is highly empirical and concerned with six main areas: (1) social mobility; (2) inequality; (3) gender disparities; (4) the role of government; (5) political connections; (5) higher education; (6) the US-China trade war. His work appeared in the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Human Resources, the Journal of Development Economics, and other peer-reviewed journals. 

Lingsheng received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland at College Park in 2010, an M.Phil. in Economics from the Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2004, and a B.A. in Economics and Thai from Peking University in 2002. Before joining Stanford, he taught at Tsinghua University from 2010 to 2017 and at the Chinese University of Hong Kong from 2017 to 2022.

Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label

Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality in Lower-Income Countries with Prof. Grant Miller

-

SCCEI Fall Seminar Series 

Tuesday, November 29, 2022      11:00 am -12:15 pm Pacific Time

Goldman Room E401, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way | Zoom Meeting 

Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality in Lower-Income Countries

About the Speaker

Grant Miller

As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Grant Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.

His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.

Seminar Series Moderators

Headshot of Dr. Scott Rozelle

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University.  For the past 30 years, he has worked on the economics of poverty reduction. Currently, his work on poverty has its full focus on human capital, including issues of rural health, nutrition and education. For the past 20 year, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Most recently, Rozelle's research focuses on the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition in China. In recognition of this work, Dr. Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards. Among them, he became a Yangtse Scholar (Changjiang Xuezhe) in Renmin University of China in 2008. In 2008 he also was awarded the Friendship Award by Premiere Wen Jiabao, the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner. 

 

hongbin li headshot

Hongbin Li is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, and a Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Hongbin obtained his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2001 and joined the economics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), where he became full professor in 2007. He was also one of the two founding directors of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the CUHK. He taught at Tsinghua University in Beijing 2007-2016 and was C.V. Starr Chair Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management. He founded the Chinese College Student Survey (CCSS) in 2009 and the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) in 2014.

Hongbin’s research has been focused on the transition and development of the Chinese economy, and the evidence-based research results have been both widely covered by media outlets and well read by policy makers around the world. He is currently the co-editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics.

A NOTE ON LOCATION

This seminar is a hybrid event. Please join us in person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing, or join remotely via Zoom.

Questions? Contact Heather Rahimi at hrahimi@stanford.edu

 

Scott Rozelle
Hongbin Li

Hybrid Event: Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall | Zoom Meeting

Grant Miller

Encina Commons Room 101,
615 Crothers Way,
Stanford, CA 94305-6006

(650) 723-2714 (650) 723-1919
0
Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor
Professor, Health Policy
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Professor, Economics (by courtesy)
grant_miller_vert.jpeg
PhD, MPP

As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.

His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.

Faculty Fellow, Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development
Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center for Latin American Studies
Faculty Affiliate, Woods Institute for the Environment
Faculty Affiliate, Interdisciplinary Program in Environment & Resources
Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
CV
Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label
Seminars

China’s Marginalized Millions: How Beijing’s Failure to Invest in Rural Workers Hurts Economic Growth

Authors
Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle
Matthew Boswell
Matthew Boswell
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

The full article is published in Foreign Affairs, the following text is an excerpt from the article, read the full article here.

One often hears the Chinese Communist Party lauded for “lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty,” as the expression usually goes. And there is no denying that the CCP deserves credit for that historic achievement. Less remarked on, however, is the plight of the hundreds of millions of Chinese people living on low incomes in the country’s rural areas, facing few prospects for advancement. China’s rural inhabitants are not living in poverty, but the CCP provides them with almost no means for social mobility—or any mobility at all, owing to the restrictive hukou residential permitting system.

This substantial subset of the population poses a major long-term obstacle to China’s continued economic growth, just as consequential as more familiar factors, such as the country’s “zero COVID” policy, regulatory crackdowns, and ballooning debt. Low-skilled workers once powered the manufacturing and construction booms that led to China’s phenomenal rise. But decades of discriminatory policies have trapped hundreds of millions of people in rural areas, cut off from educational and employment opportunities.

This presents a policy conundrum for the CCP. Even if rural, low-skilled workers could more easily relocate to large cities, they would struggle to compete in the labor markets there, owing to deficits in their education. And it would take a long time to build a reliable pool of skilled workers in rural areas by spending more on education, especially since doing so would require forms of economic redistribution that might be risky for the CCP. There are no easy answers to China’s rural human capital problem, which is likely to affect the country’s growth prospects for decades to come.

Read More

Elderly woman scoops water in Shanxi province.
News

In China’s Rapidly Ageing Society, Elderly Rural Residents Must Not Be Left to Fend for Themselves

Author Lijia Zhang quotes Scott Rozelle in her opinion piece in the South China Morning Post looking at how China’s ageing problem is particularly acute in rural areas, where elderly residents often have no children around to care for them and pensions are too low to live on.
In China’s Rapidly Ageing Society, Elderly Rural Residents Must Not Be Left to Fend for Themselves
Animated robots in factory
News

"China's Bot Boom" Article in The Wire Quotes SCCEI Scholars

"Can robot-driven advanced manufacturing be a panacea for China’s slowing economy? China sure hopes so." The Wire China author Isabella Borshoff quotes SCCEI co-directors Hongbin Li and Scott Rozelle in pursuit of the answer.
"China's Bot Boom" Article in The Wire Quotes SCCEI Scholars
Factory workers in China
News

The Economist: China is Improving its Human Capital. Gradually

The Economist features Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's book "Invisible China" in this article highlight China's efforts to improve their human capital and face the invisible crisis no one knows about.
The Economist: China is Improving its Human Capital. Gradually
All News button
1
Subtitle

Scott Rozelle and Matthew Boswell comment on China's invisible rural workforce in their piece published in Foreign Affairs.

Chenggang Xu

0
Senior Research Scholar, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
chenggang_xu.jpeg
PhD

Chenggang Xu is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economic and Institutions, and a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and a Visiting Professor, Department of Finance, Imperial College London.

Chenggang received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 1991. He previously taught at the University of Hong Kong as Chung Hon-Dak Professor of Economics, at Tsinghua University as Special-term Professor of Economics, at Seoul National University as World-Class University Professor of Economics, and at LSE as Reader of Economics. He was the President of the Asian Law and Economics Association.  He was a first recipient of China Economics Prize (2016) and a recipient of the Sun Yefang Economics Prize (2013). 

Chenggang's research is in political economics, institutional economics, law and economics, development economics, transition economics and the Chinese political economy. His research and opinions have been covered widely in the Greater China area and in the world. He is currently a board member of the Ronald Coase Institute (RCI) and a research fellow of the CEPR.

Speaking Engagements

All people Back to top
CV
Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label

Eric Hanushek

0
Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Hanushek_resized.jpeg

Eric Hanushek is the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is internationally recognized for his economic analysis of educational issues, and his research has had broad influence on education policy in both developed and developing countries. He received the Yidan Prize for Education Research in 2021. He is the author of numerous widely-cited studies on the effects of class size reduction, school accountability, teacher effectiveness, and other topics. He was the first to research teacher effectiveness by measuring students’ learning gains, which forms the conceptual basis for using value-added measures to evaluate teachers and schools, now a widely adopted practice. His recent book, The Knowledge Capital of Nations: Education and the Economics of Growth summarizes his research establishing the close links between countries’ long-term rates of economic growth and the skill levels of their populations. His current research analyzes why some countries’ school systems consistently perform better than others. He has authored or edited twenty-four books along with over 250 articles. He is a Distinguished Graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and completed his Ph.D. in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label

Publishing and Assessing the Research of Economists: Lessons from Public Health

Authors
Scott Rozelle
News Type
Blogs
Date
All News button
1
Subtitle

Scott Rozelle introduces his recent publication, "Publishing and Assessing the Research of Economists: Lessons from Public Health" in a blog post for the China Economic Review's official Wechat account to celebrate its 30th anniversary.

SCCEI Launches New Impact Initiative with the China Briefs

Authors
Claire Cousineau
Heather Rahimi
Belinda Byrne
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

On November 15, 2021, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) launched its new impact initiative:  the SCCEI China Briefs.  The briefs translate data-driven social science research into accessible insights for those interested in China and U.S.-China relations.  Released twice a month, the briefs cover timely issues that inform policy and advance public understanding of China and its role on the global stage.

This initiative targets one of SCCEI’s primary objectives: to inform public debates on U.S.-China relations with empirically-driven social science research.

This initiative targets one of SCCEI’s primary objectives: to inform public debates on U.S.-China relations with empirically-driven social science research.

On Monday, SCCEI released its first three China Briefs spotlighting findings central to China’s economy, U.S.-China trade competition, and their implications for U.S.-China relations:   

In “Did ‘China Shock’ Cause Widespread Job Losses in the U.S.?” Stanford's own Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors find compelling evidence that import competition from China did not, in fact, cause aggregate employment loss in the U.S. – a finding that contradicts prevailing views. Read our brief for a fuller picture of how “China shock” impacted U.S. employment dynamics and how this might impact regional inequality and political polarization in the U.S.

Only a handful of countries have escaped the middle-income trap since 1960. In “Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Unemployed May Slow China’s Growth,” SCCEI’s co-director Scott Rozelle finds that approximately 70% of China’s labor force – 500 million people – concentrated in rural areas do not have a high school education. Our SCCEI China Brief sheds light on why these statistics matter – not only for China, but for the rest of the world.

In “Rise of Robots in China,” SCCEI’s co-director Hongbin Li presents strong data revealing China’s global leadership in the use of industrial robots. What is driving this relentless growth of automation in China? What future trends and implications can we glean from China’s use and production of robots? Read our SCCEI China Brief to find out more.

Read the Briefs

 

Shipping container ship docked.

 

 

 

Did "China Shock" Cause Widespread Job Losses in the U.S.?
Findings in this brief challenge prevailing views regarding net jobs lost in the U.S.
 

 

Invisible China feature image

 

 

 

Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China's Growth
Education is the key for China to realize its goal of moving from a middle-income to high-income economy

 

Robotic arm in a factory

 

 

 

Rise of the Robots in China
Data representative of China’s manufacturing sector reveals China’s global leadership in the use of industrial robots

 

Join our mailing list to receive SCCEI China Brief email announcements. The briefs are also posted on our SCCEI China Briefs homepage every other week. 

Read the Briefs

[[{"fid":"250414","view_mode":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960","fields":{"format":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Shipping container ship docked. ","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960"},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"6":{"format":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Shipping container ship docked. ","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960"}},"attributes":{"alt":"Shipping container ship docked. ","style":"width: 200px; height: 150px; margin-left: 10px; margin-right: 10px; float: left;","class":"media-element file-crop-wysiwyg-scale1-960","data-delta":"6"}}]]Did "China Shock" Cause Widespread Job Losses in the U.S.?
Findings in this brief challenge prevailing views regarding net jobs lost in the U.S.
 

[[{"fid":"250003","view_mode":"crop_wysiwyg_scale4_350","fields":{"format":"crop_wysiwyg_scale4_350","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Invisible China feature image","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_wysiwyg_scale4_350"},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"1":{"format":"crop_wysiwyg_scale4_350","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Invisible China feature image","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_wysiwyg_scale4_350"}},"attributes":{"alt":"Invisible China feature image","style":"float: left; height: 150px; width: 200px; margin-left: 10px; margin-right: 10px;","class":"media-element file-crop-wysiwyg-scale4-350","data-delta":"1"}}]]Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China's Growth
Education is the key for China to realize its goal of moving from a middle-income to high-income economy

[[{"fid":"250375","view_mode":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960","fields":{"format":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Robotic arm in a factory","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"GettyImages","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960"},"type":"media","field_deltas":{"4":{"format":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960","field_file_image_description[und][0][value]":"","field_file_image_alt_text[und][0][value]":"Robotic arm in a factory","field_file_image_title_text[und][0][value]":false,"field_credit[und][0][value]":"GettyImages","field_caption[und][0][value]":"","thumbnails":"crop_wysiwyg_scale1_960"}},"attributes":{"alt":"Robotic arm in a factory","style":"float: left; margin-left: 10px; margin-right: 10px; width: 200px; height: 150px;","class":"media-element file-crop-wysiwyg-scale1-960","data-delta":"4"}}]]Rise of the Robots in China
Data representative of China’s manufacturing sector reveals China’s global leadership in the use of industrial robots

 

Join our mailing list to receive SCCEI China Brief email announcements. The briefs are also posted on our SCCEI China Briefs homepage every other week. 

Hero Image
All News button
1
Subtitle

The SCCEI China Briefs are short features that translate top-quality academic research into evidence-based insights for those interested in China and U.S.-China relations. Released twice a month, the briefs will cover timely issues that inform policy and advance the public understanding of China and its role on the global stage.

Subscribe to Economic Affairs