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In a timely and insightful lecture, Stanford professor Matteo Maggiori, Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, delivered the 2025 Hsieh Lecture on “Geoeconomics and the U.S.–China Great Power Competition,” exploring the increasing use of economic tools to exert geopolitical influence in an era of rising global fragmentation.

Geoeconomics, as defined by Maggiori, is the use of existing economic relationships—such as trade networks and financial systems—by powerful states to advance strategic political goals. Maggiori explained that this isn’t just about tariffs or headlines, it’s about shaping long-term global dependencies and controlling the choke points that others can’t easily escape. Maggiori went on to say that, “as economists, we have reduced the notion of power too much to be a synonym with market power, the idea that you can sell your goods at a markup compared to cost. Now, that's certainly a form of power, but when we say that a large country or a corporation is powerful, we really mean something much broader than the ability to charge a markup.”

Throughout the talk, he illustrated how threats to withhold trade or access to financial networks can be more effective than traditional military power, particularly when concentrated choke points—like control over critical technologies or payment systems—leave countries with few alternatives.

Maggiori outlined three major insights for optimal international economic policy:
 

  1. Power-building, not just trade manipulation: Traditional economic tools like tariffs are increasingly used to create dependency, not just manage trade balances.
  2. Security vs. Efficiency: Countries are enacting “economic security policies” that reduce dependence on foreign suppliers—even at the cost of efficiency—leading to a more fragmented global economy.
  3. Limits of Coercion: Hegemons must commit to multilateral norms to maintain influence; otherwise, overreach could prompt countries to decouple entirely.

The talk culminated in a preview of Maggiori’s new research using large language models (LLMs) to analyze earnings calls and analyst reports at scale. His team leveraged AI to detect when companies reacted to government pressure—offering real-time visibility into geoeconomic tensions. Maggiori goes on to explain how tools like these allow us to capture threats that never appear in policy, in fact, “some of the most powerful threats never occur because the target complies.”

Maggiori’s talk emphasizes the need for economists and policymakers to develop and use better tools to measure power, model interdependence, and design policy that balances trade gains with national security; Because this is not just theory, these dynamics are shaping the world we live in today.



 

Watch the Full Talk Here

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Professor Maggiori joined SCCEI and Stanford Libraries to discuss how the U.S. and China apply economic pressure to achieve their political and economic goals, and the economic costs and benefits that this competition is imposing on the world.

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Stanford Libraries and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions are pleased to present the 2025 Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture featuring Professor Matteo Maggiori who will be speaking on Geoeconomics and the US-China Great Power Competition.

To attend in person, please register here.
To attend online, please register here.



Professor Maggiori will discuss how the U.S. and China apply economic pressure to achieve their political and economic goals, and the economic costs and benefits that this competition is imposing on the world. A discussion of economic security policies that other countries are implementing to shield their economies.
 


About the Speaker 

 

Headshot of Matteo Maggiori in dark collared shirt with light blue background

Professor Maggiori is the Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. His research focuses on international macroeconomics and finance. He is a co-founder and director of the Global Capital Allocation Project. His research topics have included the analysis of exchange rates under imperfect capital markets, capital flows, the international monetary system, reserve currencies, geoeconomics, tax havens, very long-run discount rates and climate change, and expectations and portfolio investment. His research combines theory and data with the aim of improving international economic policy. He is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research. He received his PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.

Among a number of honors, he is the recipient of the Fischer Black Prize awarded to an outstanding financial economist under the age of 40, the Carnegie and Guggenheim fellowships, and the Bernacer Prize for outstanding contributions in macroeconomics and finance by a European economist under age 40.



The family of Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh donated his personal archive to the Stanford Libraries' Special Collections and endowed the Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture series to honor his legacy and to inspire future generations. Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh (1919-2004) was former Governor of the Central Bank in Taiwan. During his tenure, he was responsible for the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and was widely recognized for achieving stability and economic growth. In his long and distinguished career as economist and development specialist, he held key positions in multilateral institutions including the Asian Development Bank, where as founding Director, he was instrumental in advancing the green revolution and in the transformation of rural Asia. Read more about Dr. Hsieh.



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GSB Knight Management Center, Oberndorf Event Center 
657 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Matteo Maggiori, Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business
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On February 26, 2025 the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions hosted a discussion on the role of industrial policy in U.S.-China competition, featuring insights from Skyline Scholars Loren Brandt from the University of Toronto and Xiaonian Xu from the China Europe International Business School, as well as Senior Fellow Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The panelists examined the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

Before moving to a question and answer session moderated by SCCEI Co-Director Scott Rozelle, each panelist shared their insights on the topic through short-form presentations.



China’s Growth: From Industrialization to Innovation
Panelists highlighted the transformation of China’s economy, characterizing its past expansion as a result of rapid industrialization rather than a so-called "economic miracle." They described China’s growth in two stages: an initial phase driven by market expansion and a later phase, emerging after 2008, where state-led stimulus measures played a dominant role.

It was noted that China’s post-industrialization period has led to economic stagnation, as capital accumulation peaked in 2005, leaving excess capacity in key sectors. With investment-driven growth slowing, experts emphasized the need for a shift toward innovation. However, this transition requires structural changes, including stronger rule of law, well-functioning markets, and better incentives for entrepreneurship. While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

China’s Industrial Dominance: Successes and Costs
The discussion also analyzed China’s dominance in industries such as lithium batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and shipbuilding. The country’s success in these sectors was attributed to industrial policies that strategically direct state resources into key industries. However, these policies come with economic inefficiencies, including excessive production capacity and stagnating productivity growth.

While China’s industrial policies aim to reduce reliance on foreign technology and foster indigenous innovation, they have also led to concerns about global trade imbalances. For instance, China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now significantly surpasses that of historical export champions Germany and Japan, disrupting global markets. Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Trade Tensions and U.S. Policy Responses
The panelists also explored how China’s development model has triggered trade tensions with the U.S. and other nations. They noted that industrial subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfers, and non-tariff barriers have led to accusations of unfair trade practices. In response, the U.S. has imposed tariffs, blocked WTO dispute resolution mechanisms, and debated revisions to trade agreements, including the Phase 1 trade deal.

Some participants suggested that while U.S.-China relations remain contentious, future shifts in U.S. foreign policy—such as improved U.S.-Russia ties under the new Trump administration—could influence the direction of trade negotiations with China. However, national security concerns and economic competition in emerging sectors like AI and clean energy will likely keep tensions high.

Looking Ahead
The discussion collectively emphasized that China’s economy will face significant challenges if it doesn’t move from an investment-driven approach to one centered on innovation. While China continues to exert influence in key industries, questions remain about its ability to sustain long-term growth without addressing underlying inefficiencies. Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies will play a crucial role in shaping the future of global economic competition.

The event underscored the complexity of U.S.-China economic relations, with industrial policy at the heart of the debate. As both countries navigate these challenges, the global economy will continue to feel the ripple effects of their evolving competition.

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During this SCCEI event, expert panelists Xiaonian Xu, Loren Brandt, and Mary Lovely shared insights on the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

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SCCEI China Conference 2025 on China and The Changing Global Economy on May 14, 2025.

 

The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institution's (SCCEI) annual China Conference brings together leading voices from policy, business, and academia to examine key economic trends in China and their implications for the world.

This year's conference will examine China's role in a changing global economy. Panels of experts from Stanford and around the world will take a deep dive into China’s evolving economic ambitions and self-perception on the global stage, assess the roles of state and private enterprises in advancing China’s goals, and analyze the impacts on global trade, finance, and institutions.



We are finalizing an outstanding lineup of speakers from academia, industry, and policy communities. Updates will be posted here as confirmed. 

*Schedule is subject to change  

Location: 

Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford University



9:00 AM - 9:30 AM  Registration & Light Breakfast

9:30 AM - 9:45 AM  Welcome & Opening Remarks


Scott Rozelle 
Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship; Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Stanford University


9:45 AM - 10:30 AM  Morning Fireside Chat


Elizabeth Economy
Hargrove Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Stanford University  

Moderator:
Hongbin Li 
Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions 
The James Liang Endowed Chair; Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Stanford University
 

10:30 AM - 11:00 AM  Break
 
11:00 AM - 12:00 PM  Session 1 | The View from Beijing: China's Economic Ambitions in a Changing World


Session Panelists:
Gangsheng Bao 
Professor of Political Science, Fudan University
Skyline Scholar, Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions

Jonathan Czin
Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies, John L. Thornton China Center
Brookings Institute

Stephen Kotkin
Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; 
Kleinheinz Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Stanford University

Moderator:
Ruixue Jia
Professor of Economics, School of Global Policy and Strategy
University of California San Diego
 

12:00 PM - 1:00 PM  Lunch
 
1:00 PM - 2:00 PM  Session 2 | China Inc.: The Role of State and Private Enterprises in Fulfilling China's Ambitions


Session Panelists:
Nan Jia
Professor of Management and Organization
University of Southern California

Arthur Kroeber
Founding Partner
Gavekal Dragonomics

Dan Wang
Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
Stanford University

Moderator:
Zhiguo He
James Irvin Miller Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business; Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions, 
Stanford University
 

2:00 PM - 2:30 PM  Break

2:30 PM - 3:15 PM  Afternoon Keynote


Sean Stein
President, U.S.-China Business Council

Moderator: 
Scott Rozelle 
Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Stanford University
 

3:15 PM - 3:45 PM  Break

3:45 PM – 4:45 PM  Session 3 | China in the Global Economy: Disruptor, Competitor, Partner?


Session Panelists:
Deborah Brautigam
Director of the China Africa Research Initiative; Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of Political Economy Emerita
Johns Hopkins University

Kyle Chan
Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in Sociology
Princeton University

Ramin Toloui
Distinguished Policy Fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Stanford University

Moderator:
Shaoda Wang
Skyline Scholar, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, Stanford University; Assistant Professor, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago

 

4:45 PM - 5:00 PM  Closing Remarks


Hongbin Li 
Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions 
Stanford University


5:00 PM - 6:00 PM  Reception in the Courtyard



Questions? Contact scceichinaconference@stanford.edu 

 


Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford University

This event is by invitation only.

Conferences
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Skyline Scholar (2025), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Professor of Economics, Noranda Chair in Economics and International Trade, University of Toronto
Research Fellow, IZA
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Loren Brandt is the Noranda Chair Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto specializing in the Chinese economy. He is also a research fellow at the IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor) in Bonn, Germany. He has published widely on the Chinese economy in leading economic journals and been involved in extensive household and enterprise survey work in both China and Vietnam. With Thomas Rawski, he completed Policy, Regulation, and Innovation in China’s Electricity and Telecom Industries (Cambridge University Press, 2019), an interdisciplinary effort analyzing the effect of government policy on the power and telecom sectors in China. He was also co-editor and major contributor to China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge University Press, 2008), which provides an integrated analysis of China’s unexpected economic boom of the past three decades. Brandt was also one of the area editors for Oxford University Press’ five-volume Encyclopedia of Economic History (2003). His current research focuses on issues of entrepreneurship and firm dynamics, industrial policy and innovation and  economic growth and structural change.

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A growing body of literature explores the effect of higher education on the urban–rural divide in China. Despite an increasing number of rural students gaining access to college, little is known about their performance in college or their job prospects after graduation. Using nationally representative data from over 40,000 urban and rural college students, we examine rural students’ college performance and estimate the impact of rural status on students’ first job wages in comparison to their urban peers. Our results indicate that once accepted into college, rural students perform equally as well, if not better, than their urban counterparts. Additionally, we discovered that rural students earn a 6.2 per cent wage premium compared to their urban counterparts in their first job after graduation. Our findings suggest the importance of expanding access to higher education for rural students, as it appears to serve as an equalizer between urban and rural students despite their significantly different backgrounds.

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The China Quarterly
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Huan Wang
Claire Cousineau
Matthew Boswell
Hongbin Li
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Against the backdrop of China’s post-1978 economic transformation, recent challenges such as COVID-19 have prompted speculations about rising popular pessimism regarding current inequalities and opportunities to get ahead. This study compares findings from three new nationally representative surveys conducted in 2023 with three earlier surveys from 2004, 2009, and 2014. Results reveal a significant attitudinal shift, with 2023 respondents expressing markedly more critical views about the fairness of current inequality patterns. Respondents in the 2023 surveys increasingly attribute poverty versus wealth to structural factors like unequal opportunities rather than to variations in individual merit. Respondents also reported lower expectations for future income growth compared with the earlier surveys. While not indicating imminent threats to political stability, such trends suggest that China’s leaders will likely face increasing skepticism and even critical popular responses as they try to mobilize their citizens to confront the serious challenges that China faces in coming years.

Journal Publisher
The China Journal
Authors
Scott Rozelle
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The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this online event, set for November 19, 6:30-7:30 am US PT, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics are releasing a new Big Data China feature that reviews recent literature evaluating the successes and failures of industrial policy in China and the conditions that shaped policy outcomes.

Trustee Chair Deputy Director Ilaria Mazzocco will moderate a discussion among experts on industrial policy in China today and its implications for the Chinese economy, global trade, and how policymakers in other countries should respond. Panelists will include Lee Branstetter (Carnegie Mellon University), Panle Jia Barwick (UW-Madison), Chloé Papazian (OECD), and Gerard DiPippo (Bloomberg Economics).  

FEATURING

Panle Jia Barwick
Todd E. and Elizabeth H. Warnock Distinguished Chair and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Ilaria Mazzocco
Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Lee Branstetter
James Walton Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University
Gerard DiPippo
Senior Geo-Economics Analyst, Bloomberg Economics
Chloé Papazian
Trade Policy Analyst, Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD
 

EVENT PARTNERS
 

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Panle Jia Barwick
Lee Branstetter
Gerard DiPippo
Ilaria Mazzocco
Chloé Papazian
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China’s economy registered an average annual growth of 9.5% from the start of reforms in 1978 until 2019. Throughout this period, economic performance was a key indicator of China’s success and served as a critical pillar of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. Over the past five years, however, China’s leadership has taken an ideological turn under Xi Jinping, and economic growth has no longer been a top priority.

To examine the myriad factors behind China’s recent economic slowdown and, more importantly, consider where China might be headed, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized the fourth in their series of closed-door roundtables. Held in April 2024 and conducted under the Chatham House Rule, the roundtable brought together leading experts on the Chinese economy for a discussion focused on the following questions:

  1. What is the mix of determinants — cyclical, structural, and political — for slower economic growth in China?
  2. How much can China’s recent economic woes be attributed to Beijing’s own policy mistakes, and how much to tensions between China’s hybrid Leninist political regime and the dynamism of a market economy?
  3. What are the potential political, social, and geopolitical consequences of the slowdown?
  4. If the slowdown continues, or even worsens, could the leadership’s priorities shift? If so, what policy measures or structural reforms might reverse the slowdown and preempt some of the broader consequences?
     

In partnership with Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis

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The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on China's recent economic slowdown and produced summary report of the discussion.

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