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Economic Affairs

ADB's Chief Economist Shares Insights on China’s Economy and Asia’s Rise

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Heather Rahimi
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On November 15, 2023 Albert Park, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), joined SIEPR, SCCEI, and the King Center for a timely discussion on China’s Economy and Asia’s Rise.

Dr. Park shared insights on the economic prospects for Asia and China, geopolitical fragmentation, and China’s regional importance. Beginning with Asia and China’s economic prospects, Dr. Park noted that Asia continues to be the most dynamic region in the world, however, within the region dynamism is shifting from China to other countries and China’s growth has dropped below the growth rate for the region at-large. He also highlighted how China’s weak property sector is contributing negatively to its growth, but despite the economic decline, the country is not close to a recession.

Dr. Park expanded on how Asia’s regional economic integration has continued to deepen and that there isn’t significant evidence of a shift away from China. Trade is fairly steady in Asia, and China’s role in global value chains has increased - making them even more important globally, despite talks of the U.S. decoupling from China. Dr. Park concluded his talk by emphasizing that forcing countries to decouple often hurts the less-powerful, poorer countries the most. He encouraged the U.S. and China to not force countries to choose sides, arguing that this will benefit the poorer countries and reduce global cost overall.

To hear Dr. Albert Park’s full talk, watch the recording here:

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Lessons of History: The rise and fall of technology in Chinese history event on Thursday, 9/28/23 at 4:30pm with MIT prof. Yasheng Huang.
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Lessons of History: The Rise and Fall of Technology in Chinese History

MIT Professor Yasheng Huang joined SCCEI and Stanford Libraries to deliver a talk examining the factors behind the rise and the fall of Chinese historical technology and lessons for today’s China.
Lessons of History: The Rise and Fall of Technology in Chinese History
A busy train station in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China.
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Common Prosperity Should Start Early

Dorien Emmers, former SCCEI Postdoc, and Scott Rozelle, SCCEI Co-Director, wrote a piece featured in China Daily and The China Story highlighting the challenges of inequality and a possible path towards common prosperity.
Common Prosperity Should Start Early
Two people shake hands behind US and China flags.
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Scott Rozelle Joins Track Two Diplomacy Efforts on Scholarly Exchange between the United States and China

SCCEI Co-Director Scott Rozelle joined a select group of ten academics from the U.S. to participate in a Track Two diplomacy effort between the U.S. and China. Together, they traveled to Beijing where they met with 12 scholars from China to discuss the current state of scholarly exchange between the two countries, as well as strategies to improve it.
Scott Rozelle Joins Track Two Diplomacy Efforts on Scholarly Exchange between the United States and China
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Albert Park speaks at event on China's economy and Asia's rise. SIEPR
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On November 15, 2023 Albert Park, Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), joined SIEPR, SCCEI, and the King Center on campus for a timely discussion on China’s economy and Asia’s rise.

Special Lecture with Professor Hui Qin: Misalignment in the Exchange of Ideas between China and the West

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A Special Lecture with Professor Hui Qin
 

中西思想交流中的"问题错位"
Misalignment in the Exchange of Ideas between China and the West


Tuesday, November 7, 2023 | 3:00 pm - 5:00 pm Pacific Time
William J. Perry Room C231, Encina Hall Central, 616 Jane Stanford Way

Please join us for a conversation with Professor Hui Qin. The lecture will be held primarily in Chinese, translation services will not be available. 


About the Speaker 
 

Hui Qin headshot.

Professor Qin Hui (秦晖) is an economic historian best known for his work on peasant studies and an influential public intellectual.  He retired as Professor of History, Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, in 2017 and then served as a Visiting Professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Qin’s academic research is focused on land ownership and peasant wars and, in the last two decades, he has written on many different aspects of China’s rural economy. As a leading figure in rural studies, Qin’s acerbic comments on a wide range of social issues, particularly those concerning  China’s rural population and migrant workers, have earned him many fans. He is a sought-after media commentator in print, on TV and online.


Questions? Contact Alexis Medina at amedina5@stanford.edu
 

William J. Perry Room C231, Encina Hall

Hui Qin, Professor of History, Emeritus, Tsinghua University
Seminars

The Guardian Quotes Scott Rozelle Speaking on China's Economy

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A row of hanging clothes in a alley in Guangzhou, China. Max Zhang, Unsplash
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In the article, "Peak China? Jobs, local services and welfare strain under economy’s structural faults" Rozelle is quoted saying, "'You don’t turn yourself into a high-income country with [close to] 70% of your economy in the informal sector.'”

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"Measurement Problems: China's GDP Growth Data and Potential Proxies": A Big Data China Event

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Big Data China logo

The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this event on July 5 at 6 a.m. PT / 9 a.m. ET, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics present their latest Big Data China publication. The feature evaluates the efficacy of China’s official GDP growth data and potential alternative proxies. Based on interviews with over a dozen economists and collection of a wide assortment of data, the feature’s authors, Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy and Research Associate Maya Mei, find that although there is substantial skepticism about China’s official data, the majority of experts believe that proper analysis of China’s economic growth trajectory requires consideration of both the official data and a wide range of other metrics.

Following a brief presentation of the feature’s core findings, there will be a roundtable discussion about the pros and cons of the official data and various proxies. Panelists will include Daniel Rosen of the Rhodium Group, Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, and Yao Yang of Peking University.

FEATURING

Scott Kennedy 
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Maya Mei 
Research Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Daniel Rosen 
Senior Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Scott Rozelle 
Co-director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Anne Stevenson-Yang 
Managing Principal, J Capital Research		Yao Yang 
Dean, National School of Development, Peking University

EVENT PARTNERS
 

SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Scott Kennedy
Maya Mei
Daniel Rosen

Scott Rozelle

Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
scott_rozelle_new_headshot.jpeg PhD

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.

His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.

Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. His book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, was published in 2020 by The University of Chicago Press. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.

In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.

Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions

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Faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Faculty Affiliate at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Scott Rozelle
Anne Stevenson-Yang
Yao Yang
Panel Discussions

Lingsheng Meng

John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building, 366 Galvez Street
Stanford, CA 94305-6015

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Senior Research Scholar, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
lingsheng_meng_vert.jpg PhD

Lingsheng Meng is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI). His research interests are in the fields of labor economics, development economics, and public economics. So far, the bulk of his work is highly empirical and concerned with six main areas: (1) social mobility; (2) inequality; (3) gender disparities; (4) the role of government; (5) political connections; (5) higher education; (6) the US-China trade war. His work appeared in the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Human Resources, the Journal of Development Economics, and other peer-reviewed journals. 

Lingsheng received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland at College Park in 2010, an M.Phil. in Economics from the Chinese University of Hong Kong in 2004, and a B.A. in Economics and Thai from Peking University in 2002. Before joining Stanford, he taught at Tsinghua University from 2010 to 2017 and at the Chinese University of Hong Kong from 2017 to 2022.

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Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality in Lower-Income Countries with Prof. Grant Miller

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SCCEI Fall Seminar Series 

Tuesday, November 29, 2022      11:00 am -12:15 pm Pacific Time

Goldman Room E401, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way | Zoom Meeting 

Cost-Sharing in Medical Care Can Increase Adult Mortality in Lower-Income Countries

About the Speaker

Grant Miller

As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Grant Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.

His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.

Seminar Series Moderators

Headshot of Dr. Scott Rozelle

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University.  For the past 30 years, he has worked on the economics of poverty reduction. Currently, his work on poverty has its full focus on human capital, including issues of rural health, nutrition and education. For the past 20 year, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Most recently, Rozelle's research focuses on the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition in China. In recognition of this work, Dr. Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards. Among them, he became a Yangtse Scholar (Changjiang Xuezhe) in Renmin University of China in 2008. In 2008 he also was awarded the Friendship Award by Premiere Wen Jiabao, the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner. 

 

hongbin li headshot

Hongbin Li is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, and a Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Hongbin obtained his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2001 and joined the economics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), where he became full professor in 2007. He was also one of the two founding directors of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the CUHK. He taught at Tsinghua University in Beijing 2007-2016 and was C.V. Starr Chair Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management. He founded the Chinese College Student Survey (CCSS) in 2009 and the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) in 2014.

Hongbin’s research has been focused on the transition and development of the Chinese economy, and the evidence-based research results have been both widely covered by media outlets and well read by policy makers around the world. He is currently the co-editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics.

A NOTE ON LOCATION

This seminar is a hybrid event. Please join us in person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing, or join remotely via Zoom.

Questions? Contact Heather Rahimi at hrahimi@stanford.edu

 

Scott Rozelle
Hongbin Li

Hybrid Event: Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall | Zoom Meeting

Grant Miller

Encina Commons Room 101,
615 Crothers Way,
Stanford, CA 94305-6006

(650) 723-2714 (650) 723-1919
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Henry J. Kaiser, Jr. Professor
Professor, Health Policy
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Professor, Economics (by courtesy)
grant_miller_vert.jpeg PhD, MPP

As a health and development economist based at the Stanford School of Medicine, Dr. Miller's overarching focus is research and teaching aimed at developing more effective health improvement strategies for developing countries.

His agenda addresses three major interrelated themes: First, what are the major causes of population health improvement around the world and over time? His projects addressing this question are retrospective observational studies that focus both on historical health improvement and the determinants of population health in developing countries today. Second, what are the behavioral underpinnings of the major determinants of population health improvement? Policy relevance and generalizability require knowing not only which factors have contributed most to population health gains, but also why. Third, how can programs and policies use these behavioral insights to improve population health more effectively? The ultimate test of policy relevance is the ability to help formulate new strategies using these insights that are effective.

Faculty Fellow, Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development
Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center for Latin American Studies
Faculty Affiliate, Woods Institute for the Environment
Faculty Affiliate, Interdisciplinary Program in Environment & Resources
Faculty Affiliate, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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China’s Marginalized Millions: How Beijing’s Failure to Invest in Rural Workers Hurts Economic Growth

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Scott Rozelle
Matthew Boswell
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The full article is published in Foreign Affairs, the following text is an excerpt from the article, read the full article here.

One often hears the Chinese Communist Party lauded for “lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty,” as the expression usually goes. And there is no denying that the CCP deserves credit for that historic achievement. Less remarked on, however, is the plight of the hundreds of millions of Chinese people living on low incomes in the country’s rural areas, facing few prospects for advancement. China’s rural inhabitants are not living in poverty, but the CCP provides them with almost no means for social mobility—or any mobility at all, owing to the restrictive hukou residential permitting system.

This substantial subset of the population poses a major long-term obstacle to China’s continued economic growth, just as consequential as more familiar factors, such as the country’s “zero COVID” policy, regulatory crackdowns, and ballooning debt. Low-skilled workers once powered the manufacturing and construction booms that led to China’s phenomenal rise. But decades of discriminatory policies have trapped hundreds of millions of people in rural areas, cut off from educational and employment opportunities.

This presents a policy conundrum for the CCP. Even if rural, low-skilled workers could more easily relocate to large cities, they would struggle to compete in the labor markets there, owing to deficits in their education. And it would take a long time to build a reliable pool of skilled workers in rural areas by spending more on education, especially since doing so would require forms of economic redistribution that might be risky for the CCP. There are no easy answers to China’s rural human capital problem, which is likely to affect the country’s growth prospects for decades to come.

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Elderly woman scoops water in Shanxi province.
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In China’s Rapidly Ageing Society, Elderly Rural Residents Must Not Be Left to Fend for Themselves

Author Lijia Zhang quotes Scott Rozelle in her opinion piece in the South China Morning Post looking at how China’s ageing problem is particularly acute in rural areas, where elderly residents often have no children around to care for them and pensions are too low to live on.
In China’s Rapidly Ageing Society, Elderly Rural Residents Must Not Be Left to Fend for Themselves
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"China's Bot Boom" Article in The Wire Quotes SCCEI Scholars

"Can robot-driven advanced manufacturing be a panacea for China’s slowing economy? China sure hopes so." The Wire China author Isabella Borshoff quotes SCCEI co-directors Hongbin Li and Scott Rozelle in pursuit of the answer.
"China's Bot Boom" Article in The Wire Quotes SCCEI Scholars
Factory workers in China
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The Economist: China is Improving its Human Capital. Gradually

The Economist features Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's book "Invisible China" in this article highlight China's efforts to improve their human capital and face the invisible crisis no one knows about.
The Economist: China is Improving its Human Capital. Gradually
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Scott Rozelle and Matthew Boswell comment on China's invisible rural workforce in their piece published in Foreign Affairs.

Chenggang Xu

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Senior Research Scholar, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
chenggang_xu.jpeg PhD

Chenggang Xu is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economic and Institutions, and a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and a Visiting Professor, Department of Finance, Imperial College London.

Chenggang received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University in 1991. He previously taught at the University of Hong Kong as Chung Hon-Dak Professor of Economics, at Tsinghua University as Special-term Professor of Economics, at Seoul National University as World-Class University Professor of Economics, and at LSE as Reader of Economics. He was the President of the Asian Law and Economics Association.  He was a first recipient of China Economics Prize (2016) and a recipient of the Sun Yefang Economics Prize (2013). 

Chenggang's research is in political economics, institutional economics, law and economics, development economics, transition economics and the Chinese political economy. His research and opinions have been covered widely in the Greater China area and in the world. He is currently a board member of the Ronald Coase Institute (RCI) and a research fellow of the CEPR.

Speaking Engagements

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Eric Hanushek

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Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Eric Hanushek is the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is internationally recognized for his economic analysis of educational issues, and his research has had broad influence on education policy in both developed and developing countries. He received the Yidan Prize for Education Research in 2021. He is the author of numerous widely-cited studies on the effects of class size reduction, school accountability, teacher effectiveness, and other topics. He was the first to research teacher effectiveness by measuring students’ learning gains, which forms the conceptual basis for using value-added measures to evaluate teachers and schools, now a widely adopted practice. His recent book, The Knowledge Capital of Nations: Education and the Economics of Growth summarizes his research establishing the close links between countries’ long-term rates of economic growth and the skill levels of their populations. His current research analyzes why some countries’ school systems consistently perform better than others. He has authored or edited twenty-four books along with over 250 articles. He is a Distinguished Graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and completed his Ph.D. in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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