Stanford University

Economic Affairs

Chunling Lu | Global, Regional, and Country Level Prevalence of Young Children Exposed to Risks of Poor Development in Low and Middle Income Countries

-

Stanford Center on Early Childhood (SCEC) and The Rural Education Action Program (REAP) are pleased to host Harvard University Professor Chunling Lu for a special seminar event.
 
Please register for the event to receive email reminders and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.

 

Global, Regional, and Country Level Prevalence of Young Children Exposed to Risks of Poor Development in Low and Middle Income Countries: An Update

 

Quantifying the prevalence of young children exposed to risks of poor development is imperative for understanding the challenges of reducing those risks, developing and evaluating evidence-based early childhood development policy interventions, and assessing progress in eliminating the risks imposed upon young children during their most critical developmental period. We published estimates on the prevalence of young children exposed to stunting and extreme poverty at the global, regional, and country levels in 2017. Since new data have been released and a new definition of extreme poverty has been proposed, we updated our 2017 study with a focus on the progress in reducing the prevalence of risk exposure at different levels since 2000. For countries with other risk factors available in their micro-level data, we added them to the composite measure and assessed the levels and trends of sociodemographic disparities in young children’s risk exposure.  
 

About the Speaker 

 

Chunling Lu, Ph.D head shot

Chunling Lu studied international relations (BA) and political science (MA) at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, and sociology (MA) and applied statistics (MS) at Syracuse University, where she also received her PhD in economics. She received postdoctoral training on health care policy analysis at the Harvard Medical School’s Department of Health Care Policy, and joined the School’s Department of Global Health and Social Medicine in 2008 after three years as Senior Research Associate at the Harvard Institute for Global Health.

 

EVENT PARTNERS

 

Stanford Center on Early Childhood and Rural Education Action Program logo

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Chunling Lu, Associate Professor of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School
Seminars
Date Label

2026 SCCEI China Conference

-
SCCEI China Conference 2026 banner image.

 

The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institution's (SCCEI) annual China Conference brings together leading voices from policy, business, and academia to examine key economic trends in China and their implications for the world.

We are finalizing an outstanding lineup of speakers from academia, industry, and policy communities. This year's theme and selected speakers will be announced in the coming months. Updates will be posted here as confirmed. 

*Schedule is subject to change  

Location: 

Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford University

*Topics, speakers, and timing will be confirmed in the coming months. 


10:00 AM - 10:30 AM  Registration & Light Breakfast

10:30 AM - 10:45 AM  Welcome & Opening Remarks


10:45 AM - 11:45 AM  Session 1

 

11:45 AM - 1:00 PM  Lunch
 
1:00 PM - 2:00 PM  Session 2 
 

2:00 PM - 2:30 PM  Break
 
2:30 PM - 3:30 PM  Session 3

 

3:30 PM - 4:00 PM  Break

4:00 PM - 5:30 PM  Keynote Address


Questions? Contact scceichinaconference@stanford.edu 

 


Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford University

This event is by invitation only.

Conferences
News Feed Image
banner_2_to_1_dimensions_2026-no_topic.png
Date Label

Shanjun Li

0
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor, Environmental Social Sciences, Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability
Denning Global Sustainability Professorship
Director of the Sustainability and Energy Transition Program, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
shanjun-li-headhsot.jpg Ph.D.

Shanjun Li is a Professor in the Environmental Social Sciences department of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability and holds the Denning Global Sustainability Professorship as a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. His research areas include environmental and energy economics, urban and transportation economics, empirical industrial organization, and Chinese economy. His recent work addresses pressing sustainability challenges and the rapid rise of clean energy industries in China, exploring their global implications to support evidence-based policymaking.

Prior to joining Stanford, he held the Kenneth L. Robinson Chair in the Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University and served as the Director of the Cornell Institute for China Economic Research (CICER). Li is a co-editor for the International Journal of Industrial Organization and the Journal of Public Economics. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and a university fellow at Resources for the Future (RFF).

Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label

Conference Explores China’s Strategic Posture in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy

Authors
Matthew Boswell
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

The second annual SCCEI China Conference, held at Stanford University on May 14, brought together leading scholars and policy experts to engage in a lively discussion on the evolving contours of China’s strategic posture in an ever-changing global economy. Amid a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape, panelists examined how structural shocks—ranging from trade fragmentation to military realignments—are forcing a reassessment of long-standing assumptions. The conference offered a candid, multifaceted view of China's global economic position, exploring its technological prowess, industrial diplomacy, and the increasingly complex global responses to its expanding influence.

Groping Towards a New Great Power Equilibrium
The era of a unipolar security order led by the U.S. and a laissez-faire economic regime anchored in globalization is over. Its demise was hastened by three structural shocks: U.S. backlash to trade liberalization, China’s sweeping industrial policies, and its growing military assertiveness. In the U.S., political support for trade collapsed while China’s Made in China 2025 industrial policies brought about “a large shift in the global production map.” China’s security alignment with Russia, and militarization of regional waters, recast its rise as a national security threat. As one panelist put it, “the dominant role China plays in supply chains now has a national security valence.”

Compounding the matter for one panelist is the weakening of U.S. allies. The U.S comprises just 5% of the global population but accounts for 25% of global GDP and 50% of global military spending. Meanwhile Europe’s share of GDP has dropped from 30% to 17%, even as it shoulders nearly 50% of global social spending—much of it underwritten by U.S. security guarantees. U.S. domestic spending has risen unsustainably from $3.7 trillion under George W. Bush to over $7 trillion, requiring a necessary rebalancing, even if it is messy and unpopular.

U.S. expectations that economic integration would liberalize China have proven wrong and misguided assumptions continue to mar relations. One panelist noted that in Beijing “political concerns are more important than economic interests.” In the latest trade war with the Trump administration, China resisted concessions, prioritizing regime legitimacy and national pride. Conceding on trade isn’t just an economic loss—it would be an unacceptable “political surrender to Western capitalism.”

As the U.S. and China grope for a new equilibrium, one panelist concluded, “if we can get to cold war, we’re good. Cold wars are not hot, and they allow for cooperation.” 

In Beijing, political concerns are more important than economic interests.

Slowing Growth, Thriving Tech
Despite slowing economic growth, China’s industrial and tech strength remains formidable. Its economy is ~75% the size of the U.S. in dollar terms, but China accounts for 33% of global manufacturing value-added, projected to rise to 49% by 2050. “China is very strong in all sorts of advanced manufacturing... in many cases it is almost entirely a Chinese concern.”

The gap is vast, according to another panelist: in 2023, China had 1,500 commercial ships under construction; the U.S. had three. Non-state firms drive export growth, crowding out for shrinking shares of foreign-led exports (60% to 30%). “There is plenty of profitable activity going on, especially in the non-state sector.”

Meanwhile, Made in China 2025 has paid dividends. “At a first approximation, it looks like a pretty good success,” said one panelist, citing EVs, clean tech, and automation, but admitted that weaknesses persist in sectors like semiconductors and aerospace. Nevertheless, China’s highly competent manufacturers, tech companies, and deep reservoir of human capital ensure that despite costly and inefficient industrial policies, China still has “a good amount of fuel left in the tank.”

Rather than stagnating like Japan in the 1990s, panelists agreed China would more closely resemble a “Leninist Germany”—an authoritarian state with a globally competitive, export-driven, tech-intensive economy.

China is very strong in all sorts of advanced manufacturing. In many cases it is almost entirely a Chinese concern.

An Enduring Value Proposition for the World, but Pushback is Growing 
Around the world China is embedding itself in local production ecosystems. Several panelists described how Chinese firms have established smartphone assembly plants in Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Indonesia. EV assembly and battery processing plants have followed, particularly in Zimbabwe and the DRC. In practice, countries receiving China’s investment often express more concern about being left behind by the West than overwhelmed by China.

China’s outbound investment is not just commercial; it is also strategic. As one panelist put it, this “industrial diplomacy” steers capital toward geopolitically friendly or economically useful countries—especially those with preferential trade access to the U.S. or E.U., like Mexico and Morocco—and away from places perceived as hostile, such as India.

This strategy has helped China rebuild global supply chains with itself at the center, creating new production ecosystems around batteries, robotics, AI, and advanced manufacturing. As one expert noted, firms like BYD, Xiaomi, and Huawei are at the core of “interlocking industrial ecosystems” that tie together multiple cutting-edge sectors across borders.

Yet pushback is growing. In 2023, 117 of 198 World Trade Organization complaints against China came from low- and middle-income countries. These nations aren’t rejecting Chinese investment, panelists pointed out—they’re renegotiating harder, hedging more, and believing less.

Ramin Toloui speaks at a podium.
Three people sit at a table and talk animatedly.
Nan Jia speaks at podium.
Scott Rozelle speaks with students int he audience.
Dan Wang sits on a panel with Zhiguo He and Arthur Kroeber.

The conference underscored a world in flux—one where China’s industrial and technological dynamism continues to reshape global supply chains even as its assertive statecraft provokes growing resistance. While some panelists warned of the breakdown of integrationist hopes, others saw opportunity in a more defined and stable strategic rivalry, even if it takes the form of a new cold war. A key takeaway was the paradox of China’s global role: it remains an important source of growth and innovation, yet inspires distrust that is prompting nations to pursue more reciprocal, conditional partnerships. In navigating this uncertain era, both China and the West appear to be groping toward a new equilibrium—messy, complex, and decidedly post-unipolar.


Discover more from the 2025 SCCEI China Conference. 
 

Read More

Sean Stein addresses the audience during a keynote speech.
News

The High Cost of Miscalculation: Sean Stein on U.S.-China Trade Fallout

In a keynote address during the 2025 SCCEI China Conference, U.S.-China Business Council President Sean Stein cautioned that strategic miscalculations and trade tensions have left the U.S. economy with lasting setbacks—and few clear gains.
The High Cost of Miscalculation: Sean Stein on U.S.-China Trade Fallout
Elizabeth Economy speaks during a Fireside Chat.
News

Strategic Shifts: Understanding China’s Global Ambitions and U.S.-China Dynamics with Elizabeth Economy

At the 2025 SCCEI China Conference, Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, outlined China’s ambitious bid to reshape the global order—and urged the U.S. to respond with vision, not just rivalry, during a Fireside Chat with Professor Hongbin Li, Senior Fellow and SCCEI Faculty Co-Director.
Strategic Shifts: Understanding China’s Global Ambitions and U.S.-China Dynamics with Elizabeth Economy
Panel session during the SCCEI China Conference.
News

2024 SCCEI China Conference Tackles Trends in China’s Economy, Tech, and Politics

Where is China’s economy headed and what are the implications for the rest of the world? Over 20 expert panelists weighed in over two days of discussions during the inaugural SCCEI China Conference.
2024 SCCEI China Conference Tackles Trends in China’s Economy, Tech, and Politics
Hero Image
Panelists speak during a session at the 2025 SCCEI China Conference. Rod Searcey
All News button
1
Subtitle

The second annual SCCEI China Conference, held at Stanford University on May 14, brought together leading scholars and policy experts. Panelists offered a candid, multifaceted view of China's global economic position, exploring its technological prowess, industrial diplomacy, and the increasingly complex global responses to its expanding influence.

Date Label

The High Cost of Miscalculation: Sean Stein on U.S.-China Trade Fallout

Authors
Heather Rahimi
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, Sean Stein, President of the U.S.-China Business Council, delivered a keynote address on May 14 during the second annual China Conference organized by the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI).

Speaking to an audience of faculty, students, and policy experts, Stein offered a grounded and pragmatic assessment of the evolving U.S.-China relationship, emphasizing the enduring importance of commercial engagement and the need for clear-eyed policymaking in a time of strategic rivalry.

Costly Miscalculations
Stein began by highlighting how U.S. policy makers have misjudged the resilience and retaliatory capacity of the Chinese economy. In particular, he argued that in response to the minimal impact China’s retaliatory efforts had on the U.S. economy during Trump’s first administration, the U.S. underestimated both China’s pain threshold and the pain China can inflict on the U.S. economy, while also overestimating its own leverage. The result, he noted, was an awkward U.S. climbdown on tariffs and significant disruption to the U.S. economy without meaningful strategic gain.

“We’re getting all of the downsides of tariffs and trade wars without getting any of the upside,” Stein remarked. Many U.S.-based companies, faced with soaring costs for component parts sourced from China, were forced to move production to third countries—decisions that are likely irreversible. Stein questioned, “Is some of the damage permanent? Yeah…sometimes, when some manufacturing leaves, it doesn't come back,” which is the exact opposite of what the Trump administration hoped would result from the newly imposed tariffs.

We’re getting all of the downsides of tariffs and trade wars without getting any of the upside.
Sean Stein

Urgent Rethink Needed on U.S-China Trade and Technological Competition
Stein also pushed back against long-held assumptions that the U.S. market alone can dictate global business trends. The notion that “the only market that matters is the U.S. market” no longer holds, noting that Chinese consumers and innovation ecosystems now play a decisive role in shaping product development and global supply chains. He noted that European businesses have expressed a radical shift in strategy, they said, “we've been in China for Asia, in North America, for the Americas…We're now going from that model to what could very well become an, ‘in China for China and the world minus one.’ And the minus one is, of course, the U.S. market.”

On the technology front, he offered a candid evaluation of the U.S.-China competition. Stein reflected on the current state of artificial intelligence in China and the U.S., he said, “ at the end of the day it's not who has the best model; a good enough model is a good enough model, where it really makes a difference is in the application…and I see China racing ahead in the application of AI.” 

At the end of the day it's not who has the best model, where it really makes a difference is in the application. I see China racing ahead in the application of AI.
Sean Stein

Know Your Competitor
Stein concluded with a call for more measured and constructive engagement. He urged both Washington and Beijing to establish clearer rules of the road, maintain open lines of communication, and invest in policy solutions that reduce uncertainty rather than amplify it.

Stein’s keynote offered a business-grounded counterpoint to prevailing narratives of decoupling and confrontation. His insights reinforced the importance of understanding the full complexity of economic interdependence, as well as China’s capacity for global market disruption, and the costs of miscalculation. As part of the broader SCCEI China Conference, his remarks served as a reminder that if America does not properly understand its competitor, efforts to stay ahead may well backfire and erode U.S. strength and global standing. 


A full recording of Sean Stein’s keynote is available on YouTube and below.

Read More

Elizabeth Economy speaks during a Fireside Chat.
News

Strategic Shifts: Understanding China’s Global Ambitions and U.S.-China Dynamics with Elizabeth Economy

At the 2025 SCCEI China Conference, Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, outlined China’s ambitious bid to reshape the global order—and urged the U.S. to respond with vision, not just rivalry, during a Fireside Chat with Professor Hongbin Li, Senior Fellow and SCCEI Faculty Co-Director.
Strategic Shifts: Understanding China’s Global Ambitions and U.S.-China Dynamics with Elizabeth Economy
Panelists speak during a session at the 2025 SCCEI China Conference.
News

Conference Explores China’s Strategic Posture in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy

The second annual SCCEI China Conference, held at Stanford University on May 14, brought together leading scholars and policy experts. Panelists offered a candid, multifaceted view of China's global economic position, exploring its technological prowess, industrial diplomacy, and the increasingly complex global responses to its expanding influence.
Conference Explores China’s Strategic Posture in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy
Craig Allen speaks at SCCEI 2024 conference
News

Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China

Craig Allen, the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, spoke on the evolving dynamics of technological leadership between the U.S. and China and their implications for the rest of the world.
Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China
Hero Image
Sean Stein addresses the audience during a keynote speech with Scott Rozelle seated at a table as moderator. Rod Searcey
All News button
1
Subtitle

In a keynote address during the 2025 SCCEI China Conference, U.S.-China Business Council President Sean Stein cautioned that strategic miscalculations and trade tensions have left the U.S. economy with lasting setbacks—and few clear gains.

Date Label

Gangsheng Bao | Post–Cold War Consensus and Strategic Dilemmas: The United States, China, and the Future of the World Order

-

Skyline Scholars Series


Tuesday, June 3, 2025 | 1:00-2:30 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way


Post–Cold War Consensus and Strategic Dilemmas: The United States, China, and the Future of the World Order


The world is at a crossroads. What is happening in world politics today—and the changes that are about to unfold—can be roughly compared to major events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War in 1991, or the end of World War II in 1945 and the formation of a world order centered on U.S.–Soviet competition. Although many unconventional policies since President Donald Trump’s second term have accelerated the arrival of this moment and increased uncertainty in world politics and the global economy, the roots of these developments are long-standing. They are the result of a series of major and gradual structural changes.

The purpose of this lecture is to provide a new theoretical perspective and cognitive framework for the academic community to understand the structural transformations of the world order from the post–Cold War era to the present, and thereby to initiate a dialogue with the global academic community. At the same time, it is hoped that political decision-makers will also find in this framework a useful tool to reflect on their own choices—encouraging more prudent and responsible decisions for their countries and for humanity in the long run.
 


About the Speaker
 

Gangsheng Bao headshot

Gangsheng Bao is a Professor of Political Science at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. He is also currently appointed as a Skyline Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions, Stanford University.

Professor Bao earned his Ph.D. from Peking University in 2012. His research interests include political theory, comparative politics, and political history, with a particular focus on theories of political modernization and democratization. He has published numerous journal articles and authored several books. His major works include: The Fate of Civilization States: From Political Crisis to Modernization (2024), Political Evolution: From Ancient Times to the 21st Century (2023), Crises and Solutions: Reflections on Political Thought in Early China (2023), Politics of Democratic Breakdown (English version, 2022; Chinese version, 2014), The Logic of Democracy (2018), and The Common Sense of Modern Politics (2015).

Professor Bao’s book Politics of Democratic Breakdown was awarded the "Best Social Science Book of the Year" in 2014 by The Beijing News and was listed among the “Nineteen Recommended Chinese Books of the Year” in 2014 by The New York Times (International Chinese Network). In 2023, Political Evolution: From Ancient Times to the 21st Century was honored as one of the “Ten Best Chinese Original Books in Humanities and Social Sciences of the Year” by Tencent and as one of the “Ten Best Books of the Year” by The China Business Network. Similarly, The Fate of Civilization States: From Political Crisis to Modernization was selected as one of the “Ten Best Books of the Year” in 2024 by the Nanfang Daily. Additionally, his work The Logic of Democracy earned him the title of "Best Author of the Year" in 2018 from The Economic Observer.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room, E409
Encina Hall, East Wing, 4th Floor

Gangsheng Bao

0
Professor of Political Science, Fudan University
Skyline Scholar (2025), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
gangsheng_bao.jpeg Ph.D.

Gangsheng Bao is a Professor of Political Science at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. He was an appointed Skyline Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions in 2025.

Professor Bao earned his Ph.D. from Peking University in 2012. His research interests include political theory, comparative politics, and political history, with a particular focus on theories of political modernization and democratization. He has published numerous journal articles and authored several books. His major works include: The Fate of Civilization States: From Political Crisis to Modernization (2024), Political Evolution: From Ancient Times to the 21st Century (2023), Crises and Solutions: Reflections on Political Thought in Early China (2023), Politics of Democratic Breakdown (English version, 2022; Chinese version, 2014), The Logic of Democracy (2018), and The Common Sense of Modern Politics (2015).

Professor Bao’s book Politics of Democratic Breakdown was awarded the "Best Social Science Book of the Year" in 2014 by The Beijing News and was listed among the “Nineteen Recommended Chinese Books of the Year” in 2014 by The New York Times (International Chinese Network). In 2023, Political Evolution: From Ancient Times to the 21st Century was honored as one of the “Ten Best Chinese Original Books in Humanities and Social Sciences of the Year” by Tencent and as one of the “Ten Best Books of the Year” by The China Business Network. Similarly, The Fate of Civilization States: From Political Crisis to Modernization was selected as one of the “Ten Best Books of the Year” in 2024 by the Nanfang Daily. Additionally, his work The Logic of Democracy earned him the title of "Best Author of the Year" in 2018 from The Economic Observer.

Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label
Gangsheng Bao, Skyline Scholar (2025); Professor of Political Science, Fudan University
Lectures
Date Label

Xiaonian Xu | China's Economic Development From a Perspective of Modernization

-

Due to high interest for this event, we have met our space capacity and registration is now closed.

Skyline Scholars Series


Wednesday, May 28, 2025 | 1:00-2:30 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way


China's Economic Development From a Perspective of Modernization


China’s economic success can be attributed to its leadership’s pragmatic approach and its respect for grassroots initiatives. The near double-digit average GDP growth during the first three decades after 1978 was achieved through bottom-up industrialization, without fundamentally altering the “ancient regime.” With industrialization largely completed—as evidenced by massive excess capacities—the country faced an urgent need to shift its growth engine from investment to innovation, a transition that demands a very different set of institutions. Delays or failures in making this shift—namely, in modernizing its institutions—may lead to the so-called “middle-income trap” and diminish hopes of becoming a leader in the global race for cutting-edge technologies. This talk explores China’s developmental trajectory through the lens of modernization theory, highlighting both the achievements and the institutional challenges that lie ahead.


About the Speaker
 

Xiaonian Xu headshot

Dr. Xiaonian Xu is Professor Emeritus at CEIBS, where he held the position of Professor of Economics and Finance from 2004 to 2018.  In recognition of his contributions, he was named an Honorary Professor in Economics from September 2018 to August 2023. He is also Skyline Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions from 2024-25 at Stanford University.

Between 1999 and 2004, Dr. Xu served as Managing Director and Head of Research at China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC). Before joining CICC, he was a Senior Economist at Merrill Lynch Asia Pacific, based in Hong Kong from 1997 to 1998, and worked as a World Bank consultant in Washington DC in 1996. Dr. Xu was appointed Assistant Professor of Amherst College, Massachusetts, where he taught Economics and Financial Markets from 1991 to 1995. Earlier in his career, he was a research fellow at the State Development Research Centre of China from 1981 to 1985.

Dr. Xu earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Davis, in 1991, and an MA in Industrial Economics from the People's University of China in 1981. In 1996, he was awarded the distinguished Sun Yefang Economics Prize, the highest honor in the field in China, for his research on China’s capital markets. His research interests include Macroeconomics, Financial Institutions and Financial Markets, Transitional Economies, China’s Economic Reform, Corporate Strategy and Digital Transformation. His publications include: Freedom and Market Economy (《自由与市场经济》), There has Never been A Savior (《从来就没有救世主》), The Pendulum Swinging Back (《回荡的钟摆》), The Nature of the Business and the Internet (《商业的本质和互联网》), and The Nature of the Business and the Internet, 2nd Edition (《商业的本质和互联网》第二版).

A dedicated educator, he has been recognized with the CEIBS Teaching Excellence Award in 2005 and 2006, as well as the esteemed CEIBS Medal for Teaching Excellence in 2010.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu

 

Goldman Room, E409
Encina Hall, East Wing, 4th Floor

Xiaonian Xu

Encina Hall, East Wing, Room 014

Office Hours:
Select Mondays | 3:00-5:00 PM 
Please schedule a meeting in advance

0
Skyline Scholar (2024), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Professor of Economics and Finance, China Europe International Business School
prof._xu_xiaonian.jpg Ph.D.

Dr. Xiaonian Xu is Professor Emeritus at CEIBS, where he held the position of Professor of Economics and Finance from 2004 to 2018. In recognition of his contributions, he was named an Honorary Professor in Economics from September 2018 to August 2023.

Between 1999 and 2004, Dr. Xu served as Managing Director and Head of Research at China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC). Before joining CICC, he was a Senior Economist at Merrill Lynch Asia Pacific, based in Hong Kong from 1997 to 1998, and worked as a World Bank consultant in Washington DC in 1996. Dr. Xu was appointed Assistant Professor of Amherst College, Massachusetts, where he taught Economics and Financial Markets from 1991 to 1995. Earlier in his career, he was a research fellow at the State Development Research Centre of China from 1981 to 1985.

Dr. Xu earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Davis, in 1991, and an MA in Industrial Economics from the People's University of China in 1981. In 1996, he was awarded the distinguished Sun Yefang Economics Prize, the highest honor in the field in China, for his research on China’s capital markets. His research interests include Macroeconomics, Financial Institutions and Financial Markets, Transitional Economies, China’s Economic Reform, Corporate Strategy and Digital Transformation. His publications include: Freedom and Market Economy (《自由与市场经济》), There has Never been A Savior (《从来就没有救世主》), The Pendulum Swinging Back (《回荡的钟摆》), The Nature of the Business and the Internet (《商业的本质和互联网》), and The Nature of the Business and the Internet, 2nd Edition (《商业的本质和互联网》第二版).

A dedicated educator, he has been recognized with the CEIBS Teaching Excellence Award in 2005 and 2006, as well as the esteemed CEIBS Medal for Teaching Excellence in 2010.

Hide publication sections
Off
Date Label
Xiaonian Xu, Skyline Scholar (2024-25); Professor Emeritus, CEIBS
Lectures
Date Label

Stanford Professor Matteo Maggiori Unpacks the New Geopolitics of Global Trade

Authors
Heather Rahimi
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

In a timely and insightful lecture, Stanford professor Matteo Maggiori, Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, delivered the 2025 Hsieh Lecture on “Geoeconomics and the U.S.–China Great Power Competition,” exploring the increasing use of economic tools to exert geopolitical influence in an era of rising global fragmentation.

Geoeconomics, as defined by Maggiori, is the use of existing economic relationships—such as trade networks and financial systems—by powerful states to advance strategic political goals. Maggiori explained that this isn’t just about tariffs or headlines, it’s about shaping long-term global dependencies and controlling the choke points that others can’t easily escape. Maggiori went on to say that, “as economists, we have reduced the notion of power too much to be a synonym with market power, the idea that you can sell your goods at a markup compared to cost. Now, that's certainly a form of power, but when we say that a large country or a corporation is powerful, we really mean something much broader than the ability to charge a markup.”

Throughout the talk, he illustrated how threats to withhold trade or access to financial networks can be more effective than traditional military power, particularly when concentrated choke points—like control over critical technologies or payment systems—leave countries with few alternatives.

Maggiori outlined three major insights for optimal international economic policy:
 

  1. Power-building, not just trade manipulation: Traditional economic tools like tariffs are increasingly used to create dependency, not just manage trade balances.
  2. Security vs. Efficiency: Countries are enacting “economic security policies” that reduce dependence on foreign suppliers—even at the cost of efficiency—leading to a more fragmented global economy.
  3. Limits of Coercion: Hegemons must commit to multilateral norms to maintain influence; otherwise, overreach could prompt countries to decouple entirely.
Professor Matteo Maggiori speaks in front of a crowd.
Audience members at the 2025 Hsieh Lecture.
Julie Sweetkind-Singer at the 2025 Hsieh Lecture.
Professor Matteo Maggiori speaks at the 2025 Hsieh Lecture.
Audience member asks a question at the 2025 Hsieh Lecture.

The talk culminated in a preview of Maggiori’s new research using large language models (LLMs) to analyze earnings calls and analyst reports at scale. His team leveraged AI to detect when companies reacted to government pressure—offering real-time visibility into geoeconomic tensions. Maggiori goes on to explain how tools like these allow us to capture threats that never appear in policy, in fact, “some of the most powerful threats never occur because the target complies.”

Maggiori’s talk emphasizes the need for economists and policymakers to develop and use better tools to measure power, model interdependence, and design policy that balances trade gains with national security; Because this is not just theory, these dynamics are shaping the world we live in today.


 

Watch the Full Talk Here

Read More

Scott Rozelle, Xiaonian Xu, Loren Brandt, and Mary Lovely converse as the panelists during a SCCEI event.
News

SCCEI Event Explores China’s Industrial Policy and Global Competition

During this SCCEI event, expert panelists Xiaonian Xu, Loren Brandt, and Mary Lovely shared insights on the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.
SCCEI Event Explores China’s Industrial Policy and Global Competition
Jennifer Pan presents during a SCCEI lecture held on October 3, 2024.
News

Jennifer Pan Shares Research Insights on Disguised Repression in China

Why do authoritarian regimes charge political opponents with non-political crimes when they can levy charges directly related to opponents' political activism? Professor Pan presents her newest research during a Fall 2024 SCCEI event.
Jennifer Pan Shares Research Insights on Disguised Repression in China
Bo Li event banner on the macroeconomics of climate change held on April 24, 2024.
News

Bo Li on The Macroeconomics of Climate Change: Key Issues, Policy Responses, and International Cooperation

In an event co-sponsored by Stanford Libraries and SCCEI, Bo Li, Deputy Managing Director at the IMF, expressed his concerns on the global climate crisis and shared insights on the macroeconomic impacts of climate change and steps to mitigate the worst of the crisis.
Bo Li on The Macroeconomics of Climate Change: Key Issues, Policy Responses, and International Cooperation
Hero Image
Professor Matteo Maggiori speaks in front of a crowd. Ragina Johnson
All News button
1
Subtitle

Professor Maggiori joined SCCEI and Stanford Libraries to discuss how the U.S. and China apply economic pressure to achieve their political and economic goals, and the economic costs and benefits that this competition is imposing on the world.

Date Label

Matteo Maggiori: Geoeconomics and the US-China Great Power Competition

-

Stanford Libraries and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions are pleased to present the 2025 Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture featuring Professor Matteo Maggiori who will be speaking on Geoeconomics and the US-China Great Power Competition.

To attend in person, please register here.
To attend online, please register here.


Professor Maggiori will discuss how the U.S. and China apply economic pressure to achieve their political and economic goals, and the economic costs and benefits that this competition is imposing on the world. A discussion of economic security policies that other countries are implementing to shield their economies.
 

About the Speaker 

 

Headshot of Matteo Maggiori in dark collared shirt with light blue background

Professor Maggiori is the Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. His research focuses on international macroeconomics and finance. He is a co-founder and director of the Global Capital Allocation Project. His research topics have included the analysis of exchange rates under imperfect capital markets, capital flows, the international monetary system, reserve currencies, geoeconomics, tax havens, very long-run discount rates and climate change, and expectations and portfolio investment. His research combines theory and data with the aim of improving international economic policy. He is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research. He received his PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.

Among a number of honors, he is the recipient of the Fischer Black Prize awarded to an outstanding financial economist under the age of 40, the Carnegie and Guggenheim fellowships, and the Bernacer Prize for outstanding contributions in macroeconomics and finance by a European economist under age 40.


The family of Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh donated his personal archive to the Stanford Libraries' Special Collections and endowed the Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture series to honor his legacy and to inspire future generations. Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh (1919-2004) was former Governor of the Central Bank in Taiwan. During his tenure, he was responsible for the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and was widely recognized for achieving stability and economic growth. In his long and distinguished career as economist and development specialist, he held key positions in multilateral institutions including the Asian Development Bank, where as founding Director, he was instrumental in advancing the green revolution and in the transformation of rural Asia. Read more about Dr. Hsieh.


Request Disability Accommodations and Access Info

GSB Knight Management Center, Oberndorf Event Center 
657 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Matteo Maggiori, Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business
Lectures
Date Label
Subscribe to Economic Affairs