Foreign Policy
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Heather Rahimi
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On February 26, 2025 the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions hosted a discussion on the role of industrial policy in U.S.-China competition, featuring insights from Skyline Scholars Loren Brandt from the University of Toronto and Xiaonian Xu from the China Europe International Business School, as well as Senior Fellow Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The panelists examined the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

Before moving to a question and answer session moderated by SCCEI Co-Director Scott Rozelle, each panelist shared their insights on the topic through short-form presentations.



China’s Growth: From Industrialization to Innovation
Panelists highlighted the transformation of China’s economy, characterizing its past expansion as a result of rapid industrialization rather than a so-called "economic miracle." They described China’s growth in two stages: an initial phase driven by market expansion and a later phase, emerging after 2008, where state-led stimulus measures played a dominant role.

It was noted that China’s post-industrialization period has led to economic stagnation, as capital accumulation peaked in 2005, leaving excess capacity in key sectors. With investment-driven growth slowing, experts emphasized the need for a shift toward innovation. However, this transition requires structural changes, including stronger rule of law, well-functioning markets, and better incentives for entrepreneurship. While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

China’s Industrial Dominance: Successes and Costs
The discussion also analyzed China’s dominance in industries such as lithium batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and shipbuilding. The country’s success in these sectors was attributed to industrial policies that strategically direct state resources into key industries. However, these policies come with economic inefficiencies, including excessive production capacity and stagnating productivity growth.

While China’s industrial policies aim to reduce reliance on foreign technology and foster indigenous innovation, they have also led to concerns about global trade imbalances. For instance, China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now significantly surpasses that of historical export champions Germany and Japan, disrupting global markets. Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Trade Tensions and U.S. Policy Responses
The panelists also explored how China’s development model has triggered trade tensions with the U.S. and other nations. They noted that industrial subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfers, and non-tariff barriers have led to accusations of unfair trade practices. In response, the U.S. has imposed tariffs, blocked WTO dispute resolution mechanisms, and debated revisions to trade agreements, including the Phase 1 trade deal.

Some participants suggested that while U.S.-China relations remain contentious, future shifts in U.S. foreign policy—such as improved U.S.-Russia ties under the new Trump administration—could influence the direction of trade negotiations with China. However, national security concerns and economic competition in emerging sectors like AI and clean energy will likely keep tensions high.

Looking Ahead
The discussion collectively emphasized that China’s economy will face significant challenges if it doesn’t move from an investment-driven approach to one centered on innovation. While China continues to exert influence in key industries, questions remain about its ability to sustain long-term growth without addressing underlying inefficiencies. Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies will play a crucial role in shaping the future of global economic competition.

The event underscored the complexity of U.S.-China economic relations, with industrial policy at the heart of the debate. As both countries navigate these challenges, the global economy will continue to feel the ripple effects of their evolving competition.

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During this SCCEI event, expert panelists Xiaonian Xu, Loren Brandt, and Mary Lovely shared insights on the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

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Join us for a compelling discussion on the evolving challenges and strategies shaping China’s economy and its impact on global industrial policy. During this panel discussion, Skyline Scholars Loren Brandt from the University of Toronto and Xiaonian Xu from the China Europe International Business School, as well as Senior Fellow Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics will explore the slowdown of China’s economy and the structural reforms needed to address its debt and growth challenges. Scott Rozelle, Co-Director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, will moderate the discussion. Panelists will examine the shifting role of industrial policy in China, its strategic and economic motivations, and its broader effects on China’s long-term trajectory, as well as how China’s policies influence U.S. policy decisions, including the role of industrial policy in an era of increasing global competition.

The discussion will begin with opening remarks at 3:15 pm on Wednesday, February 26th. We invite you to join us before the event for light refreshments.

This event is off the record. 


About the Speakers
 

Loren Brandt headshot

Loren Brandt is the Noranda Chair Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto specializing in the Chinese economy. He is also a research fellow at the IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor) in Bonn, Germany. He has published widely on the Chinese economy in leading economic journals and been involved in extensive household and enterprise survey work in both China and Vietnam. With Thomas Rawski, he completed Policy, Regulation, and Innovation in China’s Electricity and Telecom Industries (Cambridge University Press, 2019), an interdisciplinary effort analyzing the effect of government policy on the power and telecom sectors in China. He was also co-editor and major contributor to China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge University Press, 2008), which provides an integrated analysis of China’s unexpected economic boom of the past three decades. Brandt was also one of the area editors for Oxford University Press’ five-volume Encyclopedia of Economic History (2003). His current research focuses on issues of entrepreneurship and firm dynamics, industrial policy and innovation and  economic growth and structural change.

 

Mary Lovely headshot

Mary E. Lovely is the Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute. She served as the 2022 Carnegie Chair in US-China Relations with the Kluge Center at the Library of Congress. Lovely is professor emeritus of economics at Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, where she was Melvin A. Eggers Economics Faculty Scholar from 2010 to April 2022. She was coeditor of the China Economic Review during 2011–15.

Her current research projects investigate the effect of China's foreign direct investment policies on trade flows and entry mode, strategic reform of US tariffs on China, and recent movements in global supply chains. Lovely earned her PhD in economics at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor and a master's degree in city and regional planning from Harvard University.

 

Headshot of Scott Rozelle

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.

In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.

 

Xiaonian Xu headshot

Dr. Xiaonian Xu is Professor Emeritus at CEIBS, where he held the position of Professor of Economics and Finance from 2004 to 2018. In recognition of his contributions, he was named an Honorary Professor in Economics from September 2018 to August 2023.

Dr. Xu earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Davis, in 1991, and an MA in Industrial Economics from the People's University of China in 1981. In 1996, he was awarded the distinguished Sun Yefang Economics Prize, the highest honor in the field in China, for his research on China’s capital markets. His research interests include Macroeconomics, Financial Institutions and Financial Markets, Transitional Economies, China’s Economic Reform, Corporate Strategy and Digital Transformation. His publications include: Freedom and Market Economy, There has Never been A Savior, China: Market Economy or Planned Economy, the Nature of the Business and the Internet, and the Nature of the Business and the Internet, 2nd Edition.

A dedicated educator, he has been recognized with the CEIBS Teaching Excellence Award in 2005 and 2006, as well as the esteemed CEIBS Medal for Teaching Excellence in 2010.

Scott Rozelle
Scott Rozelle


Encina Hall, William J. Perry Room C231
616 Jane Stanford Way

This event will be held in-person only, registration is required.

Encina Hall, East Wing, Room 413

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Skyline Scholar (2025), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Professor of Economics, Noranda Chair in Economics and International Trade, University of Toronto
Research Fellow, IZA
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PhD

Loren Brandt is the Noranda Chair Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto specializing in the Chinese economy. He is also a research fellow at the IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor) in Bonn, Germany. He has published widely on the Chinese economy in leading economic journals and been involved in extensive household and enterprise survey work in both China and Vietnam. With Thomas Rawski, he completed Policy, Regulation, and Innovation in China’s Electricity and Telecom Industries (Cambridge University Press, 2019), an interdisciplinary effort analyzing the effect of government policy on the power and telecom sectors in China. He was also co-editor and major contributor to China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge University Press, 2008), which provides an integrated analysis of China’s unexpected economic boom of the past three decades. Brandt was also one of the area editors for Oxford University Press’ five-volume Encyclopedia of Economic History (2003). His current research focuses on issues of entrepreneurship and firm dynamics, industrial policy and innovation and  economic growth and structural change.

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Loren Brandt
Mary Lovely

Encina Hall, East Wing, Room 014

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Skyline Scholar (2024), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Professor of Economics and Finance, China Europe International Business School
prof._xu_xiaonian.jpg
Ph.D.

Dr. Xiaonian Xu is Professor Emeritus at CEIBS, where he held the position of Professor of Economics and Finance from 2004 to 2018. In recognition of his contributions, he was named an Honorary Professor in Economics from September 2018 to August 2023.

Between 1999 and 2004, Dr. Xu served as Managing Director and Head of Research at China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC). Before joining CICC, he was a Senior Economist at Merrill Lynch Asia Pacific, based in Hong Kong from 1997 to 1998, and worked as a World Bank consultant in Washington DC in 1996. Dr. Xu was appointed Assistant Professor of Amherst College, Massachusetts, where he taught Economics and Financial Markets from 1991 to 1995. Earlier in his career, he was a research fellow at the State Development Research Centre of China from 1981 to 1985.

Dr. Xu earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Davis, in 1991, and an MA in Industrial Economics from the People's University of China in 1981. In 1996, he was awarded the distinguished Sun Yefang Economics Prize, the highest honor in the field in China, for his research on China’s capital markets. His research interests include Macroeconomics, Financial Institutions and Financial Markets, Transitional Economies, China’s Economic Reform, Corporate Strategy and Digital Transformation. His publication includes: Freedom and Market Economy, There has Never been A Savior, China: Market Economy or Planned Economy, the Nature of the Business and the Internet, and the Nature of the Business and the Internet, 2nd Edition.

A dedicated educator, he has been recognized with the CEIBS Teaching Excellence Award in 2005 and 2006, as well as the esteemed CEIBS Medal for Teaching Excellence in 2010.

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Encina Hall, East Wing, Room 413

Office Hours:
Select Wednesdays | 2:00-5:00 PM 
Please schedule a meeting in advance

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Skyline Scholar (2025), Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Professor of Economics, Noranda Chair in Economics and International Trade, University of Toronto
Research Fellow, IZA
loren_brandt_-_bg_remove.png
PhD

Loren Brandt is the Noranda Chair Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto specializing in the Chinese economy. He is also a research fellow at the IZA (The Institute for the Study of Labor) in Bonn, Germany. He has published widely on the Chinese economy in leading economic journals and been involved in extensive household and enterprise survey work in both China and Vietnam. With Thomas Rawski, he completed Policy, Regulation, and Innovation in China’s Electricity and Telecom Industries (Cambridge University Press, 2019), an interdisciplinary effort analyzing the effect of government policy on the power and telecom sectors in China. He was also co-editor and major contributor to China’s Great Economic Transformation (Cambridge University Press, 2008), which provides an integrated analysis of China’s unexpected economic boom of the past three decades. Brandt was also one of the area editors for Oxford University Press’ five-volume Encyclopedia of Economic History (2003). His current research focuses on issues of entrepreneurship and firm dynamics, industrial policy and innovation and  economic growth and structural change.

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This paper empirically investigates the labor market effects of China’s 2007 VAT reform, which significantly reduced the tax cost of capital investment. Employing city-by-year variation in the reform, we demonstrate that the tax cuts increased the earnings of skilled workers and left the earnings of the unskilled workers unaffected. Moreover, we find limited impacts of the reform on employment for both skill groups. These results suggest that the tax incentives increased the relative demand for skills, thus resulting in a higher income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers.

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Labour Economics
Authors
Hongbin Li
Hongbin Li
Lingsheng Meng
Lingsheng Meng
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Disguised Repression:  Targeting Opponents with Non-Political Crimes to Undermine Dissent lecture on 10.3.24 with Jennifer Pan.

Why do authoritarian regimes charge political opponents with non-political crimes when they can levy charges directly related to opponents' political activism? Using experimental and observational data from China, we find that disguising repression by charging opponents with non-political crimes undermines the moral authority of opponents, minimizing backlash and mobilization while increasing public support for repression.

Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) is pleased to present a lecture by Jennifer Pan, Sir Robert Ho Tung Professor of Chinese Studies, Professor of Communication and (by courtesy) Political Science, and a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, who will be speaking on Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Non-Political Crimes to Undermine Dissent. The event opens with a welcome reception at 4:00 pm, followed by the lecture and discussion with Jennifer Pan and Hongbin Li, SCCEI Co-director and James Liang Endowed Chair, beginning at 4:45 pm.



Watch the Recorded Lecture

About the Speaker

 

Jennifer Pan

Jennifer Pan is a political scientist whose research focuses on political communication, digital media, and authoritarian politics. She is the Sir Robert Ho Tung Professor of Chinese Studies, Professor of Communication and (by courtesy) Political Science, and a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute. Pan's research uses experimental and computational methods with large-scale datasets on political activity to answer questions about the role of digital media in authoritarian and democratic politics, including how political censorship, propaganda, and information manipulation work in the digital age and how preferences and behaviors are shaped as a result. Her papers have appeared in peer reviewed publications such as the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Political Communication, and Science. She graduated from Princeton University, summa cum laude, and received her Ph.D. from Harvard University’s Department of Government.


Parking & Directions


Parking meters are enforced Monday - Friday 8 AM to 4 PM, unless otherwise posted.

The event will take place in the Koret-Taube Conference Center located within the John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building. The closest visitor parking to the Gunn-SIEPR building is:


Please visit this website for more detailed parking options and directions to the venue.



Questions? Contact Ragina Johnson at raginaj@stanford.edu

Koret-Taube Conference Center
366 Galvez Street, Stanford, CA

Jennifer Pan, Professor of Communication, Stanford University
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Where is China’s economy headed and what are the implications for the rest of the world? More than 20 expert panelists weighed in over two days of discussions during the inaugural Stanford China Conference, hosted by the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions.

The invite-only event aimed to bring empirical scholarship on China from the quantitative social sciences to the forefront of debates about China and U.S.-China relations. Over the course of the conference, panelists engaged in a lively, off-the-record exchange with an audience of scholars and students from across campus as well as experts and business leaders from Silicon Valley. 

Panel session during the SCCEI China Conference. The conference convened over 100 people from within academia, business, and policy making. Panelists shared data-driven research to help decode the nuanced impacts of policy changes, technological advancements, demographic trends, and more.

Economic Growth is No Longer China’s Top Priority

A panel of economists from the U.S. and China agreed that China's economy is at a structural turning point where economic growth is no longer the primary objective of the government. Instead, the new focus appears to be on building a modern industrial system that prioritizes state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state entities over the private sector whose dynamism has fueled past decades of growth.

Panelists agreed that in this new context, policymaking will be more important than ever. But the evidence suggests China’s government is abandoning its former tolerance for policy experimentation at the local level and embracing centrally formulated “moonshot” objectives driven by the state. Meanwhile, policies seeking to drive domestic consumption appear to be taking a back seat, as cautious households protect their savings and wrestle with losses in the troubled property sector.

Further complicating the picture are cash-strapped local governments. Provinces and municipalities that once financed themselves with land sales face severe fiscal strain in the wake of China’s property bust, with debts near 100% of GDP. One panelist shared analysis showing some cities face debts exceeding 800% of their annual budgets, underfunded pension systems, and reductions in civil servant benefits of up to 30%.

Genuine GDP growth on the order of 5% per year could help China grow out of its problems but no panelist was able to say with confidence what sectors could replace the property sector in driving that level of growth. While the panelists agreed we may not be at “peak China,” the country’s leadership is taking a major gamble by empowering the state sector and doubling down on manufacturing, while doing little to reassure private business and households. 

The Evolving View from Europe

China’s apparent aim to export its way out of trouble has caused a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach to the country, according to panelists from Germany and France. In response to a flood of commodity and green tech imports, the panelists point out that Europe has steadily developed and deployed policy tools like tariffs to combat the challenges posed by China’s industrial policy.

At the same time, they were careful to emphasize that Europe must also learn from China in sectors where it has surged ahead of European counterparts. One panelist deemed China “a fitness center” for foreign firms that not only draws on high levels of state support but also on a world-class pool of high-end engineers and businesses honed by the demanding Chinese consumer. Foreign firms can learn from Chinese competitors to be faster in production and take more risks. German car companies, for example, are in China not for the market, but instead to unlearn how to build traditional cars and learn how to build “mobile phones on wheels” – the electric vehicles that China’s firms lead the world in producing. 

Tech Competition with the U.S. Heats Up, Fueling Unintended Consequences

Panelists from Silicon Valley and U.S. business groups highlighted the U.S. government’s multiplying efforts to hem in China’s tech ambitions through use of export controls on advanced semiconductors, onshoring with the CHIPS act, and impending controls on outbound investments, artificial intelligence, cloud services, data flows, and biotech.

They asserted that though these measures have hurt China’s tech ecosystem and exacerbated a flow of entrepreneurial talent out of China, they have also spurred a series of unintended consequences. For example, many Chinese venture capitalists have decamped to Japan and Singapore, where they comprise a new generation adept at reading China’s policies and identifying niches to found startups where American funds are barred from playing. U.S. tech controls have also induced consolidation around China’s “national champion” firms like Huawei, which has seen profits jump, while market share for American tech firms active in China like Apple have only declined.

As for generative AI, panelists asserted that China will remain persistently behind the U.S. by two to four years, partly due to lack of access to best-in-class chips and other hardware, but also because the unpredictable nature of generative AI is unpalatable to China’s leaders seeking control over politics, society, and culture. Nevertheless, China may still jump ahead in other applications of AI, like self-driving tech, advanced manufacturing, and robotics. A case in point: China’s tremendous manufacturing capacity offers abundant use cases to train AI in advanced manufacturing.

No Easy Solutions for Demographic, Labor Market Trends

A panel of economists and sociologists highlighted troubling, longer-term trends in China’s labor force. A panelist from China presented new research showing that the rapid advancement of AI is threatening China’s white-collar jobs and causing dramatic changes in the manufacturing sector, including declining skill requirements for blue-collar workers and a steady rise in unstable, short-term employment for unskilled workers. She pointed out that the proportion of China’s college graduates taking jobs in the formal sector (i.e., salaried positions with benefits) has been declining since 2013, with more women entering these roles and consequently delaying childbearing. This trend contributes to China’s precipitously declining birth rate (from 18 million children born in 2017 to just 11 million in 2021), saddling the country with an aging society for the foreseeable future. Other panelists emphasized the hundreds of millions of underemployed rural Chinese and uneven progress in China’s universal education as posing significant obstacles to sustainable growth with few easy solutions.

Grim Outlook for U.S.-China Relations

Two panels of political scientists and historians pointed out that China’s apparent shift away from the market is a feature, not a bug, of current leader Xi Jinping’s administration. They asserted that China’s economic liberalization of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s was never a goal in itself, but rather a means to generate the material basis required to keep the ruling regime in power. Now, decades of growth have made it possible for China’s leaders to reembrace central planning to harness “new productive forces” in the industries of the future, harden supply chains, and extend social controls. In doing so, the leadership is purposefully choosing not to empower China’s consumers and households, and instead preparing for prolonged confrontation with the U.S., no matter the long-term cost to the economy. In this era of competition, cooperation, even when desirable by either the U.S. or China, remains difficult because both sides fear openness to cooperation will be exploited as a vulnerability by the other.

Letting Data Take the Lead

The throughline of the conference was that empirical research is essential for understanding the complex dynamics of China’s economy and politics. Data-driven research helps decode the nuanced impacts of policy changes, technological advancements, demographic trends, and more. By providing a platform for interdisciplinary exchange, SCCEI aims to put empirical research at center stage to enhance understanding of China’s current trajectory and inform more robust and adaptive policy to navigate future challenges.


 
Stanford Affiliated Panelists

Paul Gregory is a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is the Cullen Professor Emeritus in the Department of Economics at the University of Houston, a Research Fellow at the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin, and Emeritus Chair of the International Advisory Board of the Kiev School of Economics.

Zhiguo He is the James Irvin Miller Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University.

Hongbin Li is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, and a Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford Unviersity.

Jennifer Pan is the Sir Robert Ho Tung Professor of Chinese Studies, Professor of Communication and (by courtesy) Political Science, and a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University.

Scott Rozelle is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions and the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University.

Joseph Torigian is a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is an Assistant Professor at American University in Washington, a Global Fellow at the Wilson Center, and a Center Associate of the Lieberthal-Rogel Center for Chinese Studies at the University of Michigan.

Guoguang Wu is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions at Stanford University.

Chenggang Xu is a Senior Research Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economic and Institutions and a Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. He is also a Visiting Professor in the Department of Finance at Imperial College London.

Yiqing Xu is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University.

Xueguang Zhou is the Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, a Professor of Sociology, and a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.



Discover more from the inaugural SCCEI China Conference which brought together over 20 expert panelists from around the world and from across Stanford’s schools and disciplines, as well as experts and business leaders from Silicon Valley and the Bay Area to share insights on China's economic prospects. 
 


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Where is China’s economy headed and what are the implications for the rest of the world? Over 20 expert panelists weighed in over two days of discussions during the inaugural SCCEI China Conference.

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US-China Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition a conversation with Mark Lambert on February 16, 2024 at 4pm in Koret-Taube Conference Center.

Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions is pleased to present a special conversation featuring Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Mark Lambert, who oversees the Office of China Policy Coordination at the US State Department. Lambert will be speaking on US-China Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition. This event is in-person only and will be off the record.

Mark Lambert’s presentation begins at 4:30 pm on Friday, February 16th, followed by a Q&A moderated by Scott Kennedy, CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics. You are invited to a welcome reception at 4:00 pm.



Registration is required for admission. No walk-ins.

No audio, video recording or photography will be permitted.  Please note, this event is closed to the media. 


About the Speaker
 

Mark Lambert headshot

Mark Lambert is State Department China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs. He oversees the Office of China Coordination and the Office of Taiwan Coordination. Mark has extensive experience in China, cross-Strait, and Asia Pacific affairs. He most recently served as Deputy Assistant Secretary with responsibility for Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands.  Earlier he established the International Organizations Bureau’s office aimed at protecting UN integrity from authoritarianism. As Special Envoy for North Korean Affairs, he participated in negotiations with the DPRK and devised and implemented a global pressure campaign to enforce UN Security Council Resolutions. As Director of the Office of Korean Affairs he helped shape the response to ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests conducted by North Korea. While Political Counselor in Hanoi he helped to devise a South China Sea maritime strategy and led a team that won recognition for dramatically improving U.S. relations with Vietnam. He served twice in Beijing, most recently managing U.S. political military affairs with China. Previously, he was named the State Department’s human rights officer of the year for devising a strategy to release Chinese political prisoners and promote religious freedom. He has served as Political Military officer in Bangkok and Tokyo and as a science and technology officer on the State Department’s Japan Desk. He was a weapons inspector in Iraq. His first tour was in Bogota, Colombia, during the era of Pablo Escobar. He received a Meritorious Presidential Rank Award for helping to design and implement a plan to elect the leader of the World Intellectual Property Organization. He has been awarded for efforts bringing the United States and Vietnam closer together, for his voluntary efforts responding to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, for helping to shape the U.S. response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, and for his work helping to resolve the 2001 EP-3 crisis involving a U.S. naval aircraft forced down on China’s Hainan Island. He has studied Mandarin Chinese, Japanese, Thai, Vietnamese, and Spanish. He is married to Laura Stone, a senior State Department official. They have two daughters.

Scott Kennedy headshot

Scott Kennedy is senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). A leading authority on Chinese economic policy, Kennedy has been traveling to China for over 30 years. His specific areas of expertise include industrial policy, technology innovation, business lobbying, U.S.-China commercial relations, and global governance. From 2000 to 2014, Kennedy was a professor at Indiana University (IU), where he established the Research Center for Chinese Politics & Business and was the founding academic director of IU’s China Office. Kennedy received his PhD in political science from George Washington University, his MA in China studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and his BA from the University of Virginia.


Parking & Directions


Parking meters are enforced Monday - Friday 8 AM to 4 PM, unless otherwise posted.

The event will take place in the Koret-Taube Conference Center located within the John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building. The closest visitor parking to the Gunn-SIEPR building is:


Please visit the this website for more detailed parking options and directions to the venue.



Questions? Contact Heather Rahimi at hrahimi@stanford.edu

Scott Kennedy, CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics

Koret-Taube Conference Center
366 Galvez Street, Stanford, CA

This event will be held in-person only, registration is required.

Mark Lambert, China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, US Department of State
Lectures
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Please note, registration for this event is now closed, we have reached capacity, space is limited. 



Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and China’s Global Sharp Power Project at the Hoover Institution are pleased to present a special lecture featuring Professor Minxin Pei who will be speaking on How Does China Spy on Its People? and his newly released book, The Sentinel State: Surveillance and the Survival of Dictatorship in China. This is an in-person event. 

The Sentinel State book cover

Contrary to the widespread perception that advanced technology enables the Chinese state to maintain full-spectrum surveillance of its people, evidence collected from local yearbooks shows that the backbone of China's surveillance state consists of close bureaucratic coordination among security agencies, an extensive network of informants and labor-intensive surveillance tactics.   This system is made possible and run effectively by the party's Leninist organizational structure.  The hi-tech surveillance apparatus, which China began to construct in the late 1990s and did not become fully operational until probably around 2010, has given the ruling Communist Party a complementary, but not substitutive, tool.  The Chinese regime’s surveillance capabilities, unrivaled by other autocracies in history, may be one explanation why rapid economic development has not led to democratization.  Growth since the early 1990s has produced abundant resources for the regime to expand its labor-intensive network of surveillance, refine surveillance tactics, and adopt new technologies.  Its powerful surveillance state prevents the emergence of opposition despite the rapid growth of the middle class and other elements that can potentially threaten the party's hold on power.  Economic development alone is unlikely to promote democracy because an autocratic regime can take advantage of the growing resources to strengthen its capacity for preventive repression.  Economic failure, not success, is far more likely to trigger regime transition.


About the Speaker
 

Minxin Pei headshot

Minxin Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ’72 Professor of Government and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College. His areas of expertise include China, comparative politics, the Pacific Rim, U.S./Asia relations, and U.S./China relations. Pei has been a Robert McNamara Fellow at the World Bank (1994-1995), Edward Teller National Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University (1994-1995), and Olin Faculty Fellow at The Olin Foundation (1997-1998). Pei has written three books including “China’s Crony Capitalism: The Dynamics of Regime Decay” (Harvard University Press, 2016), “China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy'' (Harvard University Press, 2006), and “From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union” (Harvard University Press, 1994). Pei earned a B.A. from Shanghai International Studies University and an M.A. and Ph.D. from Harvard University.


Co-sponsored by:
 

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Combined logos for the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions and China's Global Sharp Power by the Hoover Institution

 



Questions? Contact Tina Shi at shiying@stanford.edu

Encina Hall East, Goldman Conference Room, E409

This event will be held in-person only. 

Minxin Pei, Professor of Government and Fellow at Claremont McKenna College
Lectures
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Professor of Communication
Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science and of Sociology
Stanford Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Stanford Affiliate at the Cyber Policy Center
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PhD

Jennifer Pan is a Professor of Communication and a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University. Her research focuses on political communication and authoritarian politics. Pan uses experimental and computational methods with large-scale datasets on political activity in China and other authoritarian regimes to answer questions about how autocrats perpetuate their rule. How political censorship, propaganda, and information manipulation work in the digital age. How preferences and behaviors are shaped as a result.

Her book, Welfare for Autocrats: How Social Assistance in China Cares for its Rulers (Oxford, 2020) shows how China's pursuit of political order transformed the country’s main social assistance program, Dibao, for repressive purposes. Her work has appeared in peer reviewed publications such as the American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Comparative Political Studies, Journal of Politics, and Science.

She graduated from Princeton University, summa cum laude, and received her Ph.D. from Harvard University’s Department of Government.

Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Stanford University
Encina Hall, C-327
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

(650) 723-9149 (650) 723-6530
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Shorenstein APARC Fellow
Affiliated Scholar at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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PhD

Thomas Fingar is a Shorenstein APARC Fellow in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University. He was the inaugural Oksenberg-Rohlen Distinguished Fellow from 2010 through 2015 and the Payne Distinguished Lecturer at Stanford in 2009.

From 2005 through 2008, he served as the first deputy director of national intelligence for analysis and, concurrently, as chairman of the National Intelligence Council. Fingar served previously as assistant secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (2000-01 and 2004-05), principal deputy assistant secretary (2001-03), deputy assistant secretary for analysis (1994-2000), director of the Office of Analysis for East Asia and the Pacific (1989-94), and chief of the China Division (1986-89). Between 1975 and 1986 he held a number of positions at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control.

Fingar is a graduate of Cornell University (A.B. in Government and History, 1968), and Stanford University (M.A., 1969 and Ph.D., 1977 both in political science). His most recent books are From Mandate to Blueprint: Lessons from Intelligence Reform (Stanford University Press, 2021), Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security (Stanford University Press, 2011), The New Great Game: China and South and Central Asia in the Era of Reform, editor (Stanford University Press, 2016), Uneasy Partnerships: China and Japan, the Koreas, and Russia in the Era of Reform (Stanford, 2017), and Fateful Decisions: Choices that will Shape China’s Future, co-edited with Jean Oi (Stanford, 2020). His most recent article is, "The Role of Intelligence in Countering Illicit Nuclear-Related Procurement,” in Matthew Bunn, Martin B. Malin, William C. Potter, and Leonard S Spector, eds., Preventing Black Market Trade in Nuclear Technology (Cambridge, 2018)."

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