FSI's research on the origins, character and consequences of government institutions spans continents and academic disciplines. The institute’s senior fellows and their colleagues across Stanford examine the principles of public administration and implementation. Their work focuses on how maternal health care is delivered in rural China, how public action can create wealth and eliminate poverty, and why U.S. immigration reform keeps stalling.
FSI’s work includes comparative studies of how institutions help resolve policy and societal issues. Scholars aim to clearly define and make sense of the rule of law, examining how it is invoked and applied around the world.
FSI researchers also investigate government services – trying to understand and measure how they work, whom they serve and how good they are. They assess energy services aimed at helping the poorest people around the world and explore public opinion on torture policies. The Children in Crisis project addresses how child health interventions interact with political reform. Specific research on governance, organizations and security capitalizes on FSI's longstanding interests and looks at how governance and organizational issues affect a nation’s ability to address security and international cooperation.
The Summer of 2021: Consolidation of the New Chinese Economic Model with Professor Barry Naughton

On September 28 Stanford Libraries and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions welcomed Professor Barry Naughton, the So Kwan Lok Chair of Chinese International Affairs at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UC San Diego to give the 2021 Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture.
Professor Naughton offered his thoughts on how to make sense of what he called China’s “summer blizzard” of regulatory actions and crackdowns that have spanned a dozen industries in recent months, including finance, real estate, energy, education, online consumer platforms, videogaming, and more.
“The summer of 2021 is going to be something that we will be assessing and evaluating for many, many years…I think what we're going to see from these changes is an increasingly aggressive effort on the part of the Chinese Government and the Chinese Communist Party to shape the way the economy is developing, and I argue that it creates substantial medium run costs for the Chinese growth process.”
Rooted in Industrial Policy
According to Professor Naughton’s analysis, the policies of summer 2021 emerge from a decade-long series of industrial policies that, among other things, aimed to develop technology as a driver of growth.
While interventionist in nature, Naughton points out, “the policies were carried out in ways that, while wasteful, did not impost enormous costs on the economy.” This is because “they used market conforming financial instruments like government guidance funds, government run commercial and investment bank lending, tax and depreciation breaks, low land and utility charges, etc.” If successful, Naughton points out, private firms could become “national champions.”
Beneficiaries such as Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent and Didi were seen as, “members of the national team,” Naughton explained. “China was a ‘venture capital state,’ and the government’s impact was comparable to that of Softbank or a venture capital firm.”
Steering More Industries More Intensively
In contrast, Naughton interprets the events of summer 2021 as a major departure from the past, for two main reasons.
First, with the implementation of many of these policies, Naughton sees an activist “steering” approach appearing in many more sectors and with an intensity unseen in decades, all in order to promote a vaguely defined “common prosperity.”
According to Naughton, one impetus for the changes is China’s looming demographic problem.
“The government now suddenly seems to be displaying something near panic about falling birth rates, and we see a sudden determination to stress the idea that life for families with children, especially urban families with children, should be less stressful,” to promote more childbearing.
Whatever the reason, Naughton notes the assortment of policy objectives aiming to steer the economy has expanded tremendously.
“Instead of pursuing one or two simply defined objectives like new high-tech development as a growth driver,” says Naughton, “China has a portfolio of 10 or more objectives.” These span data security, enhancing control of the financial system, raising the birth rate, building new cities, keeping housing prices low, and reducing carbon emissions, among others.
A Changing Toolkit
The second reason these newer plans represent a departure from the past is that as the policy objectives have expanded, the instruments deployed to reach them have lost their “market-conforming” character, Naughton explains.
“The instruments used so far are very clumsy. Abolish the private tutoring industry. Punish [big private firms like] Ali, Ant, Didi, and Tencent. Encourage charitable donations from large corporations. What we haven’t seen is the utilization of much more effective policies that are known to work and have been applied in scores of countries around the world, in particular income tax policy.”
A Gap Between Intent and Impact
Naughton sees this haphazard roll out of directives as having unintended consequences that may weigh on future growth.
“What’s happening is that there are many built in conflicts between the different objectives and the different instruments and the way those instruments are deployed … without consideration for what their implications are going to be in other areas.”
Naughton points to the education sector as one example.
“Some of the policies that come from the desire to lower burdens on families in order to encourage them to have children,” – like the reduction in homework and elimination of cram schools – “But now a highly educated, high skilled labor force, which was always considered to be a part of the high-tech push, is suddenly in question.”
Naughton sees a similar contradiction at play in the real estate sector.
“[Embattled real estate giant] Evergrand is clearly caught between Chinese policies that are trying to push down the price of housing [for the middle class] and other policies that are trying to de-risk the financial environment by reducing leverage to property firms.”
In light of these contradictions, “you really have to wonder in any specific arena what's the particular outcome is going to prevail,” Naughton says. “And in the meantime, they have very substantial costs, particularly costs on private business.”
A Major Turning Point
Naughton concludes that the summer of 2021 is a turning point where China has begun to attempt to shape and steer China’s society and economy far more aggressively than what has been seen for the last 40 years.
“Without a doubt the policies are ambitious. But the proliferation of ambitions has outrun the instruments that are available to actually achieve them, and as a result we’re already seeing increased conflicts, contradictions and difficulties. I think that is going to continue…and will have extremely important ramifications that will ripple out not just in China, but on a world scale.”
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During the summer of 2021, a “regulatory storm” shook markets in China. While the crackdown had its most immediate effects on private education, internet business, and finance, the government has also rolled out new policies to shape manufacturing and infrastructure, and even household fertility and income distribution.
China is Purging Celebrities and Tech Billionaires. But the Problem is Bigger than 'Sissy Men'
The Los Angeles Times writes about China's new "common prosperity" campaign to narrow the gap between rich and poor. However Scott Rozelle doesn't think "any of these policies that they’re doing are addressing the real underlying issues.” Rozelle says they need to invest in rural education so that workers can move into higher-skill jobs.
Does Having a Cadre Parent Pay: Evidence from the First Job Offers of Chinese College Graduates
We estimate the wage premium associated with having a cadre parent in China using a recent survey of college graduates carried out by the authors. The wage premium of having a cadre parent is 15%, and this premium cannot be explained by other observables such as college entrance exam scores, quality of colleges and majors, a full set of college human capital attributes, and job characteristics. These results suggest that the remaining premium could be the true wage premium of having a cadre parent.
Evidence on the Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China's Hua River Policy
This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China’s Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 μg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m3 of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).
Shifting Fiscal Control to Limit Cadre Power in China's Townships and Villages
In contrast to its decentralized political economy model of the 1980s, China took a surprising turn towards recentralization in the mid-1990s. Its fiscal centralization, starting with the 1994 tax reforms, is well known, but political recentralization also has been under way to control cadres directly at township and village levels. Little-noticed measures designed to tighten administrative and fiscal regulation began to be implemented during approximately the same period in the mid-1990s. Over time these measures have succeeded in hollowing out the power of village and township cadres. The increasing reach of the central state is the direct result of explicit state policies that have taken power over economic resources that were once under the control of village and township cadres. This article examines the broad shift towards recentralization by examining the fiscal and political consequences of these policies at the village and township levels. Evidence for this shift comes from new survey data on village-level investments, administrative regulation and fiscal oversight, as well as township-level fiscal revenues, expenditures, transfers (between counties and townships) and public-goods investments.
Providing Quality Infrastructure in Rural Villages: The Case of Rural Roads in China
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When seeking to build high quality and cost-effective infrastructure in rural villages, a fundamental question is: Who is better at doing so? Should the village leadership or a government agency above the village finance and/or manage the construction of the infrastructure project? To answer this question, we surveyed all rural road projects in 101 villages in rural China between 2003 and 2007 and measured the quality and per kilometer cost of each road. According to our analysis, road quality was higher when more of the project funds came from the government agency above. Moreover, projects had lower cost per kilometer when the village leaders managed the road construction. Overall, our findings suggest that to build high quality and cost-effective rural roads village leaders and government agencies should collaborate and each specialize in a specific project role.
Good and Bad News From China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme
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Abstract: The overall goal of this article is to understand the progress in implementing the New Cooperative Medical Scheme, while seeking to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the programme and, in particular, to understand its effects on the incidence of catastrophic medical payment. The study is based on two rounds of nationally representative household survey data collected in 2005 and 2008. The study found that the programme has a very high level of participation, and has increased farmers’ use of medical services. However, despite efforts by both central and local governments and high household participation, the programme is only partially achieving its policy objectives. In particular, it has been able to extend to almost all of the rural population, but has failed to cover expenses for catastrophic illness, due to insufficient funds.
Abstract The overall goal of this article is to understand the progress in implementing the New Cooperative
Medical Scheme, while seeking to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the programme and, in particular,
to understand its effects on the incidence of catastrophic medical payment. The study is based on two
rounds of nationally representative household survey data collected in 2005 and 2008. The study found that
the programme has a very high level of participation, and has increased farmers’ use of medical services.
However, despite efforts by both central and local governments and high household participation, the
programme is only partially achieving its policy objectives. In particular, it has been able to extend to almost
all of the rural population, but has failed to cover expenses for catastrophic illness, due to insufficient funds.
Trends and determinants of rural residential solid waste collection services in China
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to describe the trends in residential solid waste collection (RSWC) services in rural China over the past decade and analyze the determinants of these services using nationally representative data.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors draw on panel data from three rounds of village-level surveys of 101 villages. The three surveys were conducted in 2005, 2008, and 2012 in five provinces. The authors used fixed-effected regression approach to analyze the determinants of these services.
Findings
The results show that in the aftermath of increased investment and policy attention at the national level, the proportion of villages providing RSWC services in rural China increased significantly from 1998 to 2011. However, half of all villages in rural China still did not provide RSWC services as of 2011. Based on econometrics analysis, the authors show that villages that are richer, more populous, and villages with more small hamlets are more likely to provide RSWC services.
Originality/value
The analyses are based on primary survey data and the first to quantify trends in waste management services in the beginning of the twentieth century. The authors believe that the results will have significant policy implications for China in its continuing quest for better waste management policy.
The New Rural Social Pension Program in Rural China: Participation and its Correlates
Purpose: The need for a universal rural pension system has been heightened by demographic changes in rural China, including the rapid aging of the nation’s rural population and a dramatic decline in fertility. In response to these changes, China’s Government introduced the New Rural Social Pension Program (NRSPP) in 2009, a voluntary and highly subsidized pension scheme. The purpose of this paper is to assess the participation of rural farmers in the NRSPP. Furthermore, the authors examine whether the NRSPP affects the labor supply of the elderly population in China.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses household-level data from a sample of 2,020 households originating from a survey conducted by the authors in five provinces, 25 counties, and 101 villages in rural China. Using a probit model and conducting correlation analysis, the authors demonstrate the factors affecting the participation and the impact of NRSPP on labor supply of the rural elderly.
Findings
The results show there are several factors that are correlated with participation, such as specific policy variant in force in the respective household's province, the size of the pension payout from government, the age of sample individuals, and the value of household durable assets. Specifically, different characteristics of NRSPP policy implementation increase participation in China’s social pension program. The results suggest that the introduction of the NRSPP has not affected the labor supply of the rural elderly, in general, although it has reduced participation for the elderly who were in poor health.
Originality/value
Several previous studies have covered the NRSPP. However, all previous studies were based on case studies or just focused on a small region, and for this reason the results cannot reflect the populations and heterogeneity of rural areas. Therefore, a data set with a large sample size is used in this paper to provide anew perspective to fully understand the participation of NRSPP and its impacts on rural households. This paper will make an update contribution to the literature in the area of pension programs in China.