Stanford University

Scholars Gather for Roundtable to Analyze Causes, Prospects, and Challenges of China’s Common Prosperity Program

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 ROUNDTABLE SYNOPSIS     FULL REPORT 

 

The Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) is a “think-and-do” tank designed to incorporate the best ideas from global thought leaders into the work of policy makers who can integrate and put those ideas into practice. Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) is joining forces with ASPI to convene private roundtables comprised of social science experts who conduct data-intensive research into timely issues confronting China’s economy. Conducted in closed-door settings to ensure free-flow of ideas, the collaboration kicked off with a virtual roundtable on January 26, 2022, analyzing the contours and implications of President Xi Jinping’s common prosperity program -- its underlying motivators, prospects, and challenges.

First introduced in the beginning of 2021, Xi Jinping’s common prosperity campaign has become the Communist Party of China’s signature initiative, potentially signaling a fundamental shift in the party’s policy platform. Many aspects of this incipient program, however, remain under-defined. A small panel of academic scholars focused on China’s economy and politics met to discuss the initiative across multiple dimensions, including its deeper aims that lie alongside its more nominally distributive goals as well as their short- and long-term implications.

More specifically, among the questions posed to the roundtable participants were the following: What is the common prosperity program in practice? What are the drivers and motivators of the political campaign being waged in its name? Where is the initiative headed, and will it be able to accomplish its goals? 

The roundable synopsis and full report of the  discussion provide additional detail. 

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SCCEI Launches "Big Data China" in Collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

"Big Data China" aims to bridge the gap between cutting-edge quantitative academic research and the Washington policy community. On February 11, 2022, SCCEI and CSIS hosted their first Big Data China event, "A Liberal Silent Majority in China?" Curated highlights from the first feature of the collaboration are included below.
SCCEI Launches "Big Data China" in Collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Yasheng Huang joins SCCEI for an conversation on US-China relations in this spotlight speaker event.
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U.S.-China Relations in the Age of Uncertainty, a Conversation with Yasheng Huang

MIT professor Yasheng Huang joined SCCEI for a conversation on the fundamentals of U.S.-China relations and shared his thoughts on how the U.S. can disrupt current bilateral tension and advocated for more data-based, factual, and analytical discussions on China.
U.S.-China Relations in the Age of Uncertainty, a Conversation with Yasheng Huang
Jennifer Pan speaks on information flow between global and Chinese social media..
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Information Flow Between Global and Chinese Social Media with Professor Jennifer Pan

Stanford professor Jennifer Pan joined SCCEI for a conversation on her new research looking at information flow from the U.S. to China via social media during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Information Flow Between Global and Chinese Social Media with Professor Jennifer Pan
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SCCEI joins forces with the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) to convene private roundtables comprised of social science experts who conduct data-intensive research into timely issues confronting China’s economy.

U.S.-China Relations in the Age of Uncertainty, a Conversation with Yasheng Huang

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Heather Rahimi
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On April 22, 2022, Professor Yasheng Huang, Epoch Foundation Professor of International Management and Professor of Global Economics and Management in the Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, joined Scott Rozelle, co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions and Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, for a lecture and discussion on current U.S.-China relations.

Watch the Recording:

Huang shared his thoughts across three major areas: the current fundamentals of U.S.-China relations, how we got where we are now, and what we might do to change the dynamics between the two countries.  

Opportunities for Collaboration and Complementarity Between the U.S. and China
Huang began by describing the fundamentals of U.S.-China relations and opportunities for collaboration and complementarity between the two countries. Huang noted, for instance, that “if we look at innovations vis-à-vis applications markets and product scaling, [although] China is catching up in terms of innovations [and] inventions, it is still the case that the U.S. is the powerhouse.” Even though the U.S. has the capability to scale technology, U.S. policies and regulations make it challenging to do so. For that reason, Huang asserts that “China is the ideal place to scale technology,” highlighting technology innovation and scaling as an opportunity for joint collaboration.

Huang also outlines other opportunities for collaboration within academia, both through government funding opportunities and through labor. He explains the complementarity between what he calls “Republic of Government,” where the government spends money proactively on furthering academic research and “Republic of Science,” an idea introduced by Michael Polanyi stating that academic research is driven by collaborations and academic freedom. While China’s academic ecosystem operates primarily under the “Republic of Government,” the United States’ operates primarily under the “Republic of Science.” Huang notes, “you can have all the collaborations you want [and] all the academic freedom you want, but science is extremely expensive – you need the government.” In contrast to the U.S., China’s government has directed ample R&D funding toward science over the last decade. Huang explained that this could be another area for joint collaboration: China could fund scientific research in areas of bilateral interest that U.S. academics may otherwise not have had the resources to pursue.  In addition to high costs, he notes that science is also labor intensive. Chinese visiting students and scholars are critical to achieving the scientific research agendas within U.S. academic institutions. 

So, What Went Wrong? 
After outlining numerous opportunities for the U.S. and China to collaborate and complement one another, he turned to explore how and why relations have declined over the last decade. In short, Huang argues that “bad and deteriorating political fundamentals” over the last 5 to 10 years and the failure to address these political fundamentals led to extreme tensions between the two countries.

[The U.S.] systematically ignored the small changes that cumulatively could lead to meaningful flexibilities in the Chinese system down the road.
Yasheng Huang

Looking only at U.S. policy toward China, Huang shares examples of such failures:

  • A disconnect between academics and politicians. While academics might talk about trade in economic terms, politicians talk about trade in political terms. This “language barrier” leads to politicians making decisions on economic engagements on political grounds rather than empirical, academic grounds.
  • The U.S.’s absence of an explicit political strategy toward China. The U.S. “believed that economics automatically would change China.”
  • The U.S.’s unrealistic and grandiose aspirations for China. The U.S. wanted democracy, human rights, and rule of law to be instilled in China, but didn’t develop a strategy to link the areas it was firmly able to influence, like trade and investment, to effectively achieve these idealistic aspirations. 
  • The U.S.’s failure to acknowledge gradual change. According to Huang, the U.S. “systematically ignored the small changes that cumulatively could lead to meaningful flexibilities in the Chinese system down the road.”


The Long-Neglected Principle of Symmetry
Huang continued by sharing examples of failures in U.S. policy toward China and offered suggestions on how the U.S. could pivot to foster more symmetrical bilateral relations. Regarding academia, for example, he notes that China’s students and scholars are welcome on U.S. campuses and that Confucius Institutes are free to operate in the U.S. In return, the U.S. should demand unfettered access by U.S. academics to China. Business operations also offer an opportunity for a more symmetrical relationship. Alibaba has two cloud computing centers in the U.S. and can operate free of equity and data restrictions. Huang believes that to achieve more symmetrical relations, the U.S. ought to demand the same treatment Alibaba has in the U.S. for Google or Amazon’s cloud computer operations in China. Rather than the U.S. demanding more than what they are giving China, Huang insists on the same treatment – a symmetrical relationship. 

How Can We Fix our Existing Relationship?
Huang suggests the U.S. adopts a bottom-up approach and advocates for 4 areas of change:

  1. Seek symmetry. Demand the U.S. receives the same treatment the U.S. gives to China from China.
  2. Pivot away from a China-specific approach. Enforce and make policies without singling out China.
  3. Start hard conversations with China but with humility and mutually acceptable grounds. The U.S. should not try to simply impose its values on China (e.g., human rights and democracy), but rather should find acceptable and agreed upon terms by both sides.
  4. Invest in a U.S. knowledge base of China. The U.S. needs to invest in empirical research that increases our knowledge on China. 
Our policy community needs to move beyond basing their decisions on typecasting and pre-conceived judgments, and instead turn to data-based, factual, and analytical discussions on China.

A Need for Data-Based, Factual, and Analytical Discussion on China
Huang concludes his discussion by suggesting that our policy community needs to move beyond basing their decisions on typecasting and pre-conceived judgments, and instead turn to data-based, factual, and analytical discussions on China. This is exactly what we, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions, advocate for through our mission and empirical research aiming to advance public understanding on China’s economy and its impact on the world. 
 

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Jennifer Pan speaks on information flow between global and Chinese social media..
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Information Flow Between Global and Chinese Social Media with Professor Jennifer Pan

Stanford professor Jennifer Pan joined SCCEI for a conversation on her new research looking at information flow from the U.S. to China via social media during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Information Flow Between Global and Chinese Social Media with Professor Jennifer Pan
Big Data China logo in front of Shanghai cityscape
News

SCCEI Launches "Big Data China" in Collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

"Big Data China" aims to bridge the gap between cutting-edge quantitative academic research and the Washington policy community. On February 11, 2022, SCCEI and CSIS hosted their first Big Data China event, "A Liberal Silent Majority in China?" Curated highlights from the first feature of the collaboration are included below.
SCCEI Launches "Big Data China" in Collaboration with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
US & China Flags.
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Conference Highlights Need for US-China Collaboration

Panel at Stanford China Economic Forum discusses climate change, financial technology as key areas of mutual interest.
Conference Highlights Need for US-China Collaboration
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MIT professor Yasheng Huang joined SCCEI for a conversation on the fundamentals of U.S.-China relations and shared his thoughts on how the U.S. can disrupt current bilateral tension and advocated for more data-based, factual, and analytical discussions on China.

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Parental Self-Perception, Parental Investment, and Early Childhood Developmental Outcomes: Evidence From Rural China

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Using a three-wave longitudinal survey conducted in 815 households in rural Western China, this study aims to examine the association between parental self-perception and early childhood development and the mediation effect of parental investment on the association between parental self-perception and child development when the sample children are at different ages in the early childhood (18–30, 22–36, and 49–65 months). The results demonstrate that parental self-perception are positively and significantly associated with child social-emotional development in all three ages of childhood (from 18 to 65 months). Positive and significant association between parental self-perception and child cognitive development is found in the ages from 22 to 65 months. In addition, findings of this study show that parental investment plays a mediating role in the association between parental self-perception and child cognitive development. The study calls on policymakers to help to strengthen parental self-perception and parental investment related to early childhood development, which should result in better child development in rural China.

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Frontiers in Public Health
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Scott Rozelle

A Seminar on "AI-tocracy" and "Exporting the Surveillance State via Trade in AI" with Professor David Yang

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Prof. Yang discusses two current research projects:


AI-tocracy 
Can frontier innovation be sustained under autocracy? We argue that innovation and autocracy can be mutually reinforcing when: (i) the new technology bolsters the autocrat’s power; and (ii) the autocrat’s demand for the technology stimulates further innovation in applications beyond those benefiting it directly. We test for such a mutually reinforcing relationship in the context of facial recognition AI in China. To do so, we gather comprehensive data on AI firms and government procurement contracts, as well as on social unrest across China during the last decade. We first show that autocrats benefit from AI: local unrest leads to greater government procurement of facial recognition AI, and increased AI procurement suppresses subsequent unrest. We then show that AI innovation benefits from autocrats’ suppression of unrest: the contracted AI firms innovate more both for the government and commercial markets. Taken together, these results suggest the possibility of sustained AI innovation under the Chinese regime: AI innovation entrenches the regime, and the regime’s investment in AI for political control stimulates further frontier innovation.

Exporting the Surveillance State via Trade in AI 
What are the international ramifications of China’s emergent leadership in facial recog- nition AI? We collect global data on facial recognition AI trade deals and document two facts. First, we show that China has a comparative advantage in this technology. It exports substantially more facial recognition AI than other countries, and particularly so as compared to other frontier technologies. This comparative advantage may stem in part from the Chinese government’s larger demand for the technology for do- mestic surveillance and political control — a form of “home-market” effect — as well as Chinese firms’ access to large government datasets. Second, we find that there is a political bias in China’s facial recognition AI exports. It is more likely to export this technology to autocracies and weak democracies relative to other frontier technologies, in particular to those lacking domestic AI innovation or experiencing political unrest. No such bias is observed for the United States. To the extent that China may be exporting its surveillance state via trade in AI, this can enhance and beget more autocracies abroad. Policymakers should thus frame AI trade regulations around regulations on products with global externalities.

Watch the Recording:

About the Speaker

David Yang

David Y. Yang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Economics at Harvard University, a Faculty Research Fellow at NBER and a Global Scholar at CIFAR. David’s research focuses on political economy, behavioral and experimental economics, economic history, and cultural economics. In particular, David studies the forces of stability and forces of changes in authoritarian regimes, drawing lessons from historical and contemporary China. David received a B.A. in Statistics and B.S. in Business Administration from University of California at Berkeley, and PhD in Economics from Stanford.

This event will be held in-person at Stanford University, however, the lecture will be recorded. If you are interested in viewing the recording, please contact Debbie Aube.

Questions? Contact Debbie Aube at debbie.aube@stanford.edu

 

Encina Hall, Stanford University

David Y. Yang
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Depressive and Anxiety Symptoms among Children and Adolescents in Rural China: A Large-Scale Epidemiological Study

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Although children living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) account for 90% of the global population of children, depression, and anxiety among children in LMICs have been understudied. This study examines the prevalence of depression and anxiety and their associations with biological and psychosocial factors among children across China, with a focus on rural areas. We conducted a large-scale epidemiological study of depression and anxiety among 53,421 elementary and junior high school-aged children across China. The results show that 20% are at risk for depression, 6% are at risk for generalized anxiety, and 68% are at risk for at least one type of anxiety. Girls and junior high school students show a higher risk for both depression and anxiety symptoms, while socioeconomic status has varying associations to depression and anxiety symptoms. Our results also show consistent correlations between depression and anxiety symptoms and standard math test scores. These findings underscore the importance of identification, prevention, and treatment of youth depression and anxiety in underdeveloped areas. As China constitutes 15% of the global population of children under age 18, this study offers valuable information to the field of global mental health.

Journal Publisher
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Authors
Xinshu She
Huan Wang
Matthew Boswell
Scott Rozelle

Economic Inequality and Social and Demographic Outcomes in China with Professor Yu Xie

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SCCEI Spring Seminar Series 

Wednesday, May 25, 2022      11:00 am -12:15 pm Pacific Time

Philippines Room, C330, 3rd Floor, Encina Hall Central, 616 Jane Stanford Way | Zoom Meeting 

Economic Inequality and Social and Demographic Outcomes in China

In this talk, Professor Yu Xie will first document a sharp rise in economic inequality in contemporary China. He then will present results from his research program on the impact of rising economic inequality on a variety of social and demographic outcomes in China: intergenerational mobility, marriage age, marriage partner choice, fertility, and mortality. 

About the Speaker

Yu Xie photo

Yu Xie is Bert G. Kerstetter ’66 University Professor of Sociology and has a faculty appointment at the Princeton Institute of International and Regional Studies, Princeton University. He is also a Visiting Chair Professor of the Center for Social Research, Peking University. His main areas of interest are social stratification, demography, statistical methods, Chinese studies, and sociology of science.

Xie's recently published works include: Marriage and Cohabitation (University of Chicago Press 2007) with Arland Thornton and William Axinn, Statistical Methods for Categorical Data Analysis with Daniel Powers (Emerald 2008, second edition), and Is American Science in Decline? (Harvard University Press, 2012) with Alexandra Killewald. Xie joined Princeton University in 2015, after 26 years at the University of Michigan, most recently as the Otis Dudley Duncan Distinguished University Professor of Sociology, Statistics and Public Policy and a research professor in the Population Studies Center at Michigan's Institute for Social Research. He is also a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Academia Sinica and the National Academy of Sciences.

Seminar Series Moderators

Headshot of Dr. Scott Rozelle

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University.  For the past 30 years, he has worked on the economics of poverty reduction. Currently, his work on poverty has its full focus on human capital, including issues of rural health, nutrition and education. For the past 20 year, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Most recently, Rozelle's research focuses on the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition in China. In recognition of this work, Dr. Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards. Among them, he became a Yangtse Scholar (Changjiang Xuezhe) in Renmin University of China in 2008. In 2008 he also was awarded the Friendship Award by Premiere Wen Jiabao, the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner.  
 

hongbin li headshot

Hongbin Li is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, and a Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Hongbin obtained his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2001 and joined the economics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), where he became full professor in 2007. He was also one of the two founding directors of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the CUHK. He taught at Tsinghua University in Beijing 2007-2016 and was C.V. Starr Chair Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management. He founded the Chinese College Student Survey (CCSS) in 2009 and the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) in 2014.

Hongbin’s research has been focused on the transition and development of the Chinese economy, and the evidence-based research results have been both widely covered by media outlets and well read by policy makers around the world. He is currently the co-editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics.

A NOTE ON LOCATION

This seminar is a hybrid event. Please join us in person in the Philippines Room, C330, located within Encina Hall Central on the 3rd floor, or join remotely via Zoom.

Register once to receive the Zoom meeting link that will be used for all lectures in this series.

Questions? Contact Debbie Aube at debbie.aube@stanford.edu

 

Scott Rozelle
Hongbin Li

Hybrid Event: Philippines Room, C330, 3rd Floor of Encina Hall Central | Zoom Meeting

Yu Xie
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Understanding the Resurgence of the SOEs in China: Evidence from the Real Estate Sector with Professor Hanming Fang

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SCCEI Spring Seminar Series 

Wednesday, May 18, 2022      11:00 am -12:15 pm Pacific Time

Goldman Room E401, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way | Zoom Meeting 

Understanding the Resurgence of the SOEs in China: Evidence from the Real Estate Sector 

We advance a novel hypothesis that China’s recent anti-corruption campaign may have contributed to the resurgence of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China as an unintended consequence. We explore the nexus between the anti-corruption campaign and the SOE resurgence by presenting supporting evidence from the Chinese real estate sector, which is notorious for pervasive rent-seeking and corruption. We use a unique data set of land parcel transactions merged with firm-level registration information and a difference-in-differences empirical design to show that, relative to the industrial land parcels which serve as the control, the fraction of residential land parcels purchased by SOEs increased significantly relative to that purchased by private developers after the anti-corruption campaign. 

About the Speaker 
 

Hanming Fang

Hanming Fang is an applied microeconomist with broad theoretical and empirical interests focusing on public economics. His research integrates rigorous modeling with careful data analysis and has focused on the economic analysis of discrimination; insurance markets, particularly life insurance and health insurance; and health care, including Medicare. In 2008, Professor Fang was awarded the 17th Kenneth Arrow Prize by the International Health Economics Association (iHEA) for his research on the sources of advantageous selection in the Medigap insurance market. 

Professor Fang received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 2000. Before joining the Penn faculty, he held positions at Yale University and Duke University.  He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, where he served as the acting director of the Chinese economy working group from 2014 to 2016. He is also a research associate of the Population Studies Center and Population Aging Research Center, and a senior fellow at the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics at the University of Pennsylvania.

Seminar Series Moderators

Headshot of Dr. Scott Rozelle

Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University.  For the past 30 years, he has worked on the economics of poverty reduction. Currently, his work on poverty has its full focus on human capital, including issues of rural health, nutrition and education. For the past 20 year, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Most recently, Rozelle's research focuses on the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition in China. In recognition of this work, Dr. Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards. Among them, he became a Yangtse Scholar (Changjiang Xuezhe) in Renmin University of China in 2008. In 2008 he also was awarded the Friendship Award by Premiere Wen Jiabao, the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner. 

 

hongbin li headshot

Hongbin Li is the Co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions, and a Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) and the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Hongbin obtained his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2001 and joined the economics department of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK), where he became full professor in 2007. He was also one of the two founding directors of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the CUHK. He taught at Tsinghua University in Beijing 2007-2016 and was C.V. Starr Chair Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management. He founded the Chinese College Student Survey (CCSS) in 2009 and the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES) in 2014.

Hongbin’s research has been focused on the transition and development of the Chinese economy, and the evidence-based research results have been both widely covered by media outlets and well read by policy makers around the world. He is currently the co-editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics.

A NOTE ON LOCATION

This seminar is a hybrid event. Please join us in person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing, or join remotely via Zoom.

Register once to receive the Zoom meeting link that will be used for all lectures in this series.

Questions? Contact Debbie Aube at debbie.aube@stanford.edu

 

Scott Rozelle
Hongbin Li

Hybrid Event: Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall | Zoom Meeting

Hanming Fang
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The Impact of Socio-demographic, Environmental, and Individual Factors on Urban Park Visitation in Beijing, China

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Urban parks improve quality of life by providing an array of cultural and natural ecosystem services, such as maintaining biodiversity, reducing air pollution, and benefiting residents' physical and mental states. Although government invests a large amount of capital into park management, parks are still underused in many cases. In this study, the association and relative importance of socio-demographic, environmental, and individual factors were investigated with regards to their impact on citizens' park visitation. Data was collected through cross-sectional door-to-door questionnaires and online databases, and was analyzed using a hierarchical regression model. Results showed that physical exercise (27.4% of collected reports) and rest and relaxation (26.7%) were the two most widespread reasons for park use. When asked about constraints of park visitation, time limitations were reported as being the most constraining factor. However, our quantitative analysis found no significant correlation. Socio-demographic, environmental, and individual variables explained 1%, 20% and 26% (adjusted R2) of the total variance in frequency of park visitation between participants, respectively. A citizen's neighborhood greenspace, housing price, and distance from the nearest park were negatively correlated with park use. Among individual factors, a participant's reported affinity for park visits, time spent in their residential greenspace, and number of children under seven were positively correlated with park visitation, with a decreasingβcoefficient. This research highlights the predominant contribution of attitude over accessibility factors when it comes to park visitation. Furthermore, the data indicates that accessibility factors function differently for frequent, infrequent, and moderate park users and provision with parks within 1000 m of their home is recommended. The findings have implications for park management and future research.

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Journal of Cleaner Production
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Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change in China’s Bohai Economic Rim

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Climate change and human activities exert a wide range of stressors on urban coastal areas. Synthetical assessment of coastal vulnerability is crucial for effective interventions and long-term planning. However, there have been few studies based on integrative analyses of ecological and physical characteristics and socioeconomic conditions in urban coastal areas. This study developed a holistic framework for assessing coastal vulnerability from three dimensions - biophysical exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity - and applied it to the coast of Bohai Economic Rim, an extensive and important development zone in China. A composite vulnerability index (CVI) was developed for every 1 km2 segment of the total 5627 km coastline and the areas that most prone to coastal hazards were identified by mapping the distribution patterns of the CVIs in the present and under future climate change scenarios. The CVIs show a spatial heterogeneity, with higher values concentrated along the southwestern and northeastern coasts and lower values concentrated along the southern coasts. Currently, 20% of the coastlines with approximately 350,000 people are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. With sea-level rises under the future scenarios of the year 2100, more coastlines will be highly vulnerable, and the amount of highly-threatened population was estimated to increase by 13–24%. Among the coastal cities, Dongying was categorized as having the highest vulnerability, mainly due to poor transportation and medical services and low GDP per capita, which contribute to low adaptive capacity. Our results can benefit decision-makers by highlighting prioritized areas and identifying the most important determinants of priority, facilitating location-specific interventions for climate-change adaptation and sustainable coastal management.

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Environment International
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An Ecosystem Service Perspective on Urban Nature, Physical Activity, and Health

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Nature underpins human well-being in critical ways, especially in health. Nature provides pollination of nutritious crops, purification of drinking water, protection from floods, and climate security, among other well-studied health benefits. A crucial, yet challenging, research frontier is clarifying how nature promotes physical activity for its many mental and physical health benefits, particularly in densely populated cities with scarce and dwindling access to nature. Here we frame this frontier by conceptually developing a spatial decision-support tool that shows where, how, and for whom urban nature promotes physical activity, to inform urban greening efforts and broader health assessments. We synthesize what is known, present a model framework, and detail the model steps and data needs that can yield generalizable spatial models and an effective tool for assessing the urban nature–physical activity relationship. Current knowledge supports an initial model that can distinguish broad trends and enrich urban planning, spatial policy, and public health decisions. New, iterative research and application will reveal the importance of different types of urban nature, the different subpopulations who will benefit from it, and nature’s potential contribution to creating more equitable, green, livable cities with active inhabitants.

Journal Publisher
PNAS
Authors
Gretchen Daily
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