The United States cannot match China's scale alone and pretending otherwise is a strategic mistake. That was the central message Rush Doshi delivered as keynote speaker at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions' 2026 annual China Conference, where he called on the U.S. to reimagine its alliance system as a platform for building shared capacity across military, economic, and technological domains.
Rush Doshi, the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and an assistant professor at Georgetown's Walsh School of Foreign Service, previously served as Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan on the National Security Council (2021-24), where, for a portion of his tenure, he was the U.S. government’s lead action officer coordinating the negotiations that launched AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. He is also the author of The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Oxford University Press, 2021).
Doshi grounded his address in a historical argument: scale, which Doshi defined as “the ability to generate efficiency and productivity and thereby outcompete rivals,” has been the decisive factor in the rise and fall of great powers. Great Britain's eclipse by larger industrializing rivals in the late nineteenth century, he argued, offers a cautionary parallel for the U.S. today. "Today, that sense of daunting scale belongs to China," Doshi said, "and the United States appears to be in the position that Great Britain was in a century ago."
China's Scale Is Not Abstract
China's economy, measured in purchasing power, is now roughly 30 percent larger than that of the United States, and its share of global manufacturing quintupled in the two decades after joining the WTO, while the U.S. share fell by half. China has two to three times U.S. industrial capacity, 13 times U.S. steel production, and roughly 500 times U.S. shipbuilding capacity. It produces two-thirds of the world's electric vehicles, three-quarters of its batteries, and 90 percent of its solar panels and refined rare earths, and is at the leading edge of six of the ten industries expected to define the next industrial revolution.
That industrial strength is now translating into direct geopolitical leverage. Doshi pointed to China's weaponization of its rare earths dominance in 2025, which effectively forced the U.S. to walk back elements of its own trade and export control policies. "That marked the first time that an export control was used to force open market access," he said. "That's a massive moment in the history of trade.
The Case for Allied Scale
The answer, Doshi argued, is not to retreat into fortress America, a sphere-of-influence arrangement, or a China-led order, but to build what he calls "allied scale." A coalition of the U.S. and its key allies and partners would represent three times China's nominal GDP, twice its defense spending, and one and a half times its share of global manufacturing.