Education
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Heather Rahimi
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Ensuring that every child in the world achieves basic skills is a key development goal emphasized in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. But how far is the world away from reaching this goal? And what would achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 mean for world development? Eric Hanushek, the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University, joins Scott Rozelle, the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University,  for a discussion on the development of an achievement database for all of the countries of the world along with estimation of the economic gains from educational improvement.

Hanushek bases his talk on the underlying concept that economic growth is almost solely a function of the skills of a workforce, which is in turn measured by the achievement and knowledge the workers have. Hanushek compares PISA scores across the world with each country's respective income level, and sets out to answer three main questions: 1) Who is competitive? 2) How do labor skills affect development? And, 3) how skilled is China? 

Watch the full event recording to discover the answers from Hanushek's research findings:

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Stanford Senior Fellow Eric Hanushek joined SCCEI for a conversation on his research looking at the worldwide progress of achieving the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. Hanushek compares different countries' PISA scores and incomes in effort to answer the following questions: Who is competitive? How do labor skills affect development? How skilled is China?

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Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution
Faculty Affiliate at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
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Eric Hanushek is the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is internationally recognized for his economic analysis of educational issues, and his research has had broad influence on education policy in both developed and developing countries. He received the Yidan Prize for Education Research in 2021. He is the author of numerous widely-cited studies on the effects of class size reduction, school accountability, teacher effectiveness, and other topics. He was the first to research teacher effectiveness by measuring students’ learning gains, which forms the conceptual basis for using value-added measures to evaluate teachers and schools, now a widely adopted practice. His recent book, The Knowledge Capital of Nations: Education and the Economics of Growth summarizes his research establishing the close links between countries’ long-term rates of economic growth and the skill levels of their populations. His current research analyzes why some countries’ school systems consistently perform better than others. He has authored or edited twenty-four books along with over 250 articles. He is a Distinguished Graduate of the United States Air Force Academy and completed his Ph.D. in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Resilience can play an important role in enabling disadvantaged students to succeed academically. However, few studies in low-resource contexts have evaluated resilience as a process (including a child’s internal capabilities and external resources, like the internal capabilities of a child’s caregiver) and as an outcome (e.g., academic achievement). In the current study, we examined the associations among students’ self-reported internal capabilities, their external resources (e.g., caregivers’ internal capabilities), and their academic resilience (operationalized as performance on a math test). The study was conducted among 1609 primary and secondary school students in rural China using the Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC) to measure internal capabilities. Student CD-RISC scores were positively associated with external resources including caregiver CD-RISC scores, maternal education level, high levels of perceived social support, recreational reading, and involvement in group-based activities at school. A one-point increase in students’ CD-RISC scores was associated with a 0.01 SD increase in math score (p < 0.001), and the math scores of students whose CD-RISC scores were in the bottom quartile were 0.18 SD lower than those of their peers (p < 0.01). High levels of perceived social support and recreational reading were also associated with academic resilience in the adjusted equation. Directions for future research and policy implications are discussed.

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Adversity and Resilience Science
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Huan Wang
Scott Rozelle
Xinshu She
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Purpose: We examine how adolescent free time allocation—namely, screen time and outdoor time—is associated with mental health and academic performance in rural China.

Methods: This paper used a large random sample of rural junior high school students in Ningxia (n = 20,375; age=13.22), with data collected from self-reported demographic questionnaires (to assess free time allocation), the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (to assess mental health), and a standardized math test (to measure academic performance). We utilized a multivariate OLS regression model to examine associations between free time allocation and adolescent outcomes, controlling for individual and family characteristics.

Results: Our sample’s screen time and outdoor time both averaged around 1 hour. About 10% of the sample adolescents reported behavioral difficulties, while a similar percentage (11%) reported abnormal prosocial behaviors. Adolescents with higher levels of screen time (> 2 hours) were 3 percentage points more likely to have higher levels of behavioral difficulties (p< 0.001), indicating that excessive screen time was associated with worse mental health. Meanwhile, outdoor time was associated with better mental health, and positive correlations were observed at all levels of outdoor time (compared to no outdoor time, decreasing the likelihood of higher levels of behavioral difficulties by between 3 and 4 percentage points and of lower prosocial scores by between 6 and 8 percentage points; all p’s< 0.001). For academic performance, average daily screen times of up to 1 hour and 1– 2 hours were both positively associated with standardized math scores (0.08 SD, p< 0.001; 0.07 SD, p< 0.01, respectively), whereas there were no significant associations between outdoor time and academic performance.

Conclusion: Using a large sample size, this study was the first to examine the association between adolescent free time allocation with mental health and academic performance, providing initial insights into how rural Chinese adolescents can optimize their free time.

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Risk Management and Healthcare Policy
Authors
Huan Wang
Scott Rozelle
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We study how an elite college education affects social mobility in China. China provides an interesting context because its college admissions rely mainly on the scores of a centralized exam, a system that has been the subject of intense debate. Combining the data from a large-scale college graduate survey and a nationally representative household survey, we document three main findings. First, attending an elite college can change one's fate. It significantly raises the child's rank in the income distribution. Nevertheless, it does not change the intergenerational relationship in income ranks or guarantee one's entry into an elite occupation or industry. Second, although access to elite colleges increases with parental income, the income gradient is much flatter than in the United States. Third, the score-based cutoff rule in elite college admission is income neutral. Overall, these findings reveal the efficacy and limitations of China's elite colleges in shaping social mobility.

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Hongbin Li
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In many developing countries, low population density may be a major reason for low school participation in rural areas, and the problem is likely to worsen with rapid urbanization. However, few studies have investigated empirically the role of population density in rural education, especially the moderating effect of population density on the outcomes of education policies. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature. From 1999 through the early 2000s, China launched a set of major nationwide policies aimed at universalizing 9-year compulsory education in rural areas. Using differencein- differences and triple difference strategies, we show that the policies significantly increased the probability of junior high school enrollment of rural children and, more importantly, these policies were more effective in densely populated regions. These fi ndings confi rm the importance of population density to rural education.

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China & World Economy
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This paper examines the impact of parental beliefs on child development outcomes (for both cognitive and social–emotional skills) based on a three-wave longitudinal survey in rural China. The survey waves were conducted when the sample children were 18–30 months, 22–36 months, and 49–65 months, respectively. A total of 815 children and their primary caregivers who participated in all three wave surveys were enrolled in this study. Using difference-in-differences and propensity score matching approaches, the results indicate that strengthened parental beliefs have a positive and significant impact on child social–emotional development. Specifically, between the periods of the Wave 1 survey (when children were 18–30 months old) and the Wave 3 survey (when children were 49–65 months old), and between the Wave 2 survey (when children were 22–36 months old) and the Wave 3 survey, strengthened parental beliefs were causally associated with more favorable child social–emotional scores by 0.44 SD (p < 0.01) and 0.49 SD (p < 0.01), respectively. No significant impact, however, was found between the period of the Wave 1 survey and the Wave 2 survey. In contrast, weakened parental beliefs had a negative and significant impact on child social–emotional development. Specifically, weakened parental beliefs were causally associated with worse child social–emotional abilities by 0.35 SD (p < 0.01), 0.30 SD (p < 0.01), and 0.22 (p < 0.05) for the time period of the Wave 1 to Wave 2, Wave 1 to Wave 3, and Wave 2 to Wave 3, respectively. No significant impact of parental beliefs, however, was found on child cognitive development. In addition, the findings of the mediation analysis show that only a marginal impact of parental beliefs on child social–emotional development can be indirectly explained by parental beliefs through parenting practices. This study calls on policy makers to improve parental beliefs and parenting practices in the hope that it will lead to better child development in rural China.

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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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Academic achievement in middle schools in rural China remains poor for many students. This study examines whether programmes and interventions can improve academic achievement by reviewing rigorous experimental evaluations of nine programmes (11 interventions) on 47,480 rural middle school students in China. The results find none of the interventions improved academic achievement. Moreover, we find no evidence for heterogeneous treatment effects by student gender, age or previous academic achievement. These results may be due in part to the academically-demanding nature of the middle school curriculum, which is applied universally to students with varying levels of cognitive ability.

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Journal of Development Effectiveness
Authors
Prashant Loyalka
Scott Rozelle
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Big Data China logo
Join the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) for the launch of the second feature of their collaboration, Big Data China, on May 27, 12:00-1:15 pm ET. Our latest digital report, “How Inequality Is Undermining China’s Prosperity,” written by CSIS Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco, highlights the path-breaking work of Stanford scholars Scott Rozelle, Hongbin Li, and their colleagues. By analyzing data on inequality and its sources, the feature shows how trends in China’s labor market, educational attainment, automation, and rural employment are conspiring to harden inequality, which could hurt prospects for growth and undermine political stability. These developments will complicate how the United States should address the China challenge in the years ahead.

Following a presentation by Scott Rozelle of Stanford University on the key findings of the analysis and its implications for the Washington policy community, Trustee Chair Fellow Ilaria Mazzocco will moderate the panel discussion and questions from the audience. The distinguished panelists for the event include Mary Gallagher of the University of Michigan, Mary E. Lovely of the Peterson Institute and Syracuse University, and Martin K. Whyte of Harvard University.


Watch the Recording:

FEATURING

Scott Rozelle 
Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow, FSI and SIEPR, 
& Co-director, SCCEI,  
Stanford University
Mary Gallagher 
Professor, Democracy, Democratization, and Human Rights, University of Michigan
Mary E. Lovely 
Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute 
for International Economics; 
Professor Emeritus, Department 
of Economics, Syracuse University
Martin K. Whyte 
Professor Emeritus, International Studies and Sociology, Harvard University
Ilaria Mazzocco 
Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
 

 

EVENT PARTNERS
 

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Virtual Livestream 

Mary Gallagher
Mary Lovely
Ilaria Mazzocco
Scott Rozelle
Martin Whyte
Panel Discussions
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