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Rural Poverty is the Biggest Obstacle to China's Rise, Says Economist Scott Rozelle

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The  Neue Zürcher Zeitung recently published an interview with SCCEI's co-director Scott Rozelle. The article was originally publshed in German and later translated to English. You can read the full article in either language online:

 

Full Article in German: Im Südwesten Chinas haben die Kinder Würmer im Darm

Full Article in English: Rural Poverty is the Biggest Obstacle to China's Rise, Says Economist

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Katrin Buchenbacher from Neue Zürcher Zeitung interviewed Scott Rozelle about his recent book on China's rural population.

SCCEI Launches New Impact Initiative with the China Briefs

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Claire Cousineau
Heather Rahimi
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On November 15, 2021, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) launched its new impact initiative:  the SCCEI China Briefs.  The briefs translate data-driven social science research into accessible insights for those interested in China and U.S.-China relations.  Released twice a month, the briefs cover timely issues that inform policy and advance public understanding of China and its role on the global stage.

This initiative targets one of SCCEI’s primary objectives: to inform public debates on U.S.-China relations with empirically-driven social science research.

This initiative targets one of SCCEI’s primary objectives: to inform public debates on U.S.-China relations with empirically-driven social science research.

On Monday, SCCEI released its first three China Briefs spotlighting findings central to China’s economy, U.S.-China trade competition, and their implications for U.S.-China relations:   

In “Did ‘China Shock’ Cause Widespread Job Losses in the U.S.?” Stanford's own Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors find compelling evidence that import competition from China did not, in fact, cause aggregate employment loss in the U.S. – a finding that contradicts prevailing views. Read our brief for a fuller picture of how “China shock” impacted U.S. employment dynamics and how this might impact regional inequality and political polarization in the U.S.

Only a handful of countries have escaped the middle-income trap since 1960. In “Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Unemployed May Slow China’s Growth,” SCCEI’s co-director Scott Rozelle finds that approximately 70% of China’s labor force – 500 million people – concentrated in rural areas do not have a high school education. Our SCCEI China Brief sheds light on why these statistics matter – not only for China, but for the rest of the world.

In “Rise of Robots in China,” SCCEI’s co-director Hongbin Li presents strong data revealing China’s global leadership in the use of industrial robots. What is driving this relentless growth of automation in China? What future trends and implications can we glean from China’s use and production of robots? Read our SCCEI China Brief to find out more.

Read the Briefs

 

Shipping container ship docked.

 

 

 

Did "China Shock" Cause Widespread Job Losses in the U.S.?
Findings in this brief challenge prevailing views regarding net jobs lost in the U.S.
 

 

Invisible China feature image

 

 

 

Invisible China: Hundreds of Millions of Rural Underemployed May Slow China's Growth
Education is the key for China to realize its goal of moving from a middle-income to high-income economy

 

Robotic arm in a factory

 

 

 

Rise of the Robots in China
Data representative of China’s manufacturing sector reveals China’s global leadership in the use of industrial robots

 

Join our mailing list to receive SCCEI China Brief email announcements. The briefs are also posted on our SCCEI China Briefs homepage every other week. 

Read the Briefs

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Findings in this brief challenge prevailing views regarding net jobs lost in the U.S.
 

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Education is the key for China to realize its goal of moving from a middle-income to high-income economy

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Data representative of China’s manufacturing sector reveals China’s global leadership in the use of industrial robots

 

Join our mailing list to receive SCCEI China Brief email announcements. The briefs are also posted on our SCCEI China Briefs homepage every other week. 

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The SCCEI China Briefs are short features that translate top-quality academic research into evidence-based insights for those interested in China and U.S.-China relations. Released twice a month, the briefs will cover timely issues that inform policy and advance the public understanding of China and its role on the global stage.

Does Paternal Involvement Matter for Early Childhood Development in Rural China?

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Research in developed countries has found that paternal involvement has positive and significant effects on early childhood development (ECD). Less is known, however, about the state of paternal involvement and its influence on ECD in rural China. Using data collected in Southern China that included 1,460 children aged 6–42 months and their fathers (as well as their primary caregivers), this study examines the association between paternal involvement and ECD. Although the results demonstrate that the average level of paternal involvement is low in rural China, paternal involvement is related to a significant increase in three domains of ECD (cognition, language, and social-emotional skills). Older children benefit significantly more than do younger children from paternal involvement in all domains of ECD. The results also show that, if the mother is the primary caregiver, the mother’s higher educational level and the family’s higher socioeconomic status are positively associated with paternal involvement.
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Applied Developmental Science
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Scott Rozelle

Parental Investment, School Choice, and the Persistent Benefits of Intervention in Early Childhood

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Working Papers
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We present evidence from a randomized experiment testing the impacts of a six-month early childhood home-visiting program on child outcomes at school entry. Two and a half years after completion of the program, we find persistent effects on child working memory - a key skill of executive functioning that plays a central role in children's development of cognitive and socio-emotional skills. We also find that the program had persistent effects on parental time investments and preschool enrollment decisions. Children were enrolled earlier and in higher quality preschools, the latter reflecting a shift in preferences over preschool attributes toward quality. Our findings imply an important role for the availability of high-quality subsequent schooling in sustaining the impacts of early intervention programs.
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Scott Rozelle

China is Purging Celebrities and Tech Billionaires. But the Problem is Bigger than 'Sissy Men'

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The Los Angeles Times writes about China's new "common prosperity" campaign to narrow the gap between rich and poor. However Scott Rozelle doesn't think "any of these policies that they’re doing are addressing the real underlying issues.” Rozelle says they need to invest in rural education so that workers can move into higher-skill jobs.

Forbes: How China’s GDP Growth Fails To Measure Its Standard Of Living: The Tragedy Of The Current Recentralization

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Young children sort corn outside of a home in a rural village in China.
Rural Education Action Program
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Author Anne Stevenson-Yang exposes the unseen rural China and states that "the best corrective to misunderstandings about this “invisible China” is a book that came out in 2020 and remains the most important book on China in a decade: Invisible China, by Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell."

Passive Versus Active Service Delivery: Comparing the Effects of Two Parenting Interventions on Early Cognitive Development in Rural China

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We present the results of a cluster-randomized controlled trial that evaluates the effects of a free, center-based parenting intervention on early cognitive development and parenting practices in 100 rural villages in China. We then compare these effects to a previous trial of a home-based intervention conducted in the same region, using the same parenting curriculum and public service system, accounting for potential differences between the studies. We find that the center-based intervention did not have a significant impact on child development outcomes, but did lead to increases in the material investments, time investments, and parenting skills of caregivers. The average impact of the center-based intervention on child skills and investments in children was significantly smaller than the home-visiting intervention. Analysis of the possible mechanisms suggests that the difference in effects was driven primarily by different patterns of selection into program participation.
Journal Publisher
World Development
Authors
Alexis Medina
Scott Rozelle

Early Childhood Development and Parental Training Interventions in Rural China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

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Introduction: Inadequate care during early childhood can lead to long-term deficits in skills. Parenting programmes that encourage investment in young children are a promising tool for improving early development outcomes and long-term opportunities in low-income and middle-income regions, such as rural China. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and a meta-analysis to investigate the prevalence of early developmental delays and stimulating parenting practices as well as the effect of parental training programmes on child development outcomes in rural China. We obtained data in English from EconPapers, PubMed, PsycARTICLES, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and Scopus (Elsevier) and in Chinese from China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data and VIP Information. We conducted frequentist meta-analyses of aggregate data and estimated random-effects meta-regressions. Certainty of evidence was rated according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach. Results: We identified 19 observational studies on the prevalence of developmental delays and stimulating parenting practices for children under 5 years of age (n=19 762) and ten studies on the impact of parental training programmes on early child development (n=13 766). Children’s risk of cognitive, language and social-emotional delays in the rural study sites (covering 14 provinces mostly in Central and Western China) was 45%, 46%, and 36%, respectively. Parental training programmes had a positive impact on child cognition, language and social-emotional development. Conclusion: There is evidence to suggest that early developmental delay and the absence of stimulating parenting practices (ie, reading, storytelling and singing with children) may be prevalent across rural, low-income and middle-income regions in Central and Western China. Results support the effectiveness of parental training programmes to improve early development by encouraging parental engagement.
Journal Publisher
BMJ Global Health
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