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Stanford Libraries and the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions are pleased to present the 2025 Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture featuring Professor Matteo Maggiori who will be speaking on Geoeconomics and the US-China Great Power Competition.

To attend in person, please register here.
To attend online, please register here.



Professor Maggiori will discuss how the U.S. and China apply economic pressure to achieve their political and economic goals, and the economic costs and benefits that this competition is imposing on the world. A discussion of economic security policies that other countries are implementing to shield their economies.
 


About the Speaker 

 

Headshot of Matteo Maggiori in dark collared shirt with light blue background

Professor Maggiori is the Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. His research focuses on international macroeconomics and finance. He is a co-founder and director of the Global Capital Allocation Project. His research topics have included the analysis of exchange rates under imperfect capital markets, capital flows, the international monetary system, reserve currencies, geoeconomics, tax havens, very long-run discount rates and climate change, and expectations and portfolio investment. His research combines theory and data with the aim of improving international economic policy. He is a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a research affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research. He received his PhD from the University of California at Berkeley.

Among a number of honors, he is the recipient of the Fischer Black Prize awarded to an outstanding financial economist under the age of 40, the Carnegie and Guggenheim fellowships, and the Bernacer Prize for outstanding contributions in macroeconomics and finance by a European economist under age 40.



The family of Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh donated his personal archive to the Stanford Libraries' Special Collections and endowed the Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh Memorial Lecture series to honor his legacy and to inspire future generations. Dr. Sam-Chung Hsieh (1919-2004) was former Governor of the Central Bank in Taiwan. During his tenure, he was responsible for the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, and was widely recognized for achieving stability and economic growth. In his long and distinguished career as economist and development specialist, he held key positions in multilateral institutions including the Asian Development Bank, where as founding Director, he was instrumental in advancing the green revolution and in the transformation of rural Asia. Read more about Dr. Hsieh.



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GSB Knight Management Center, Oberndorf Event Center 
657 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Matteo Maggiori, Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business
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In an era of disruptive global challenges, from climate crises to pandemics, understanding the drivers of drastic policy innovation is paramount. This study defines drastic policy innovation as a significant shift in governmental priorities through policies untried by most jurisdictions in a country. While policy entrepreneurs are often credited with initiating change, this study argues that political will is essential for enacting and implementing such innovative policies. Political will is defined as the degree of commitment among key decision makers to enact and implement specific policies. It is characterized by three key components: authority (the power to enact and enforce policy), capacity (the resources to implement it effectively), and legitimacy (the perceived rightfulness of actions by stakeholders). Through the case of low-carbon city experimentation in China, this study examines how political will drives the adoption and implementation of these policies. The findings reveal that a high level of political will is significantly linked to more drastically innovative policies being enacted and implemented and that when political will is institutionalized, implementation continues despite leadership turnover. These insights likely apply to other policy contexts and countries, regardless of regime type, albeit with some caveats.

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Policy Studies Journal
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SCCEI Seminar Series (Spring 2025)


Friday, April 18, 2025 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way



Intergenerational Mobility, Marital Sorting, and Social Closure: Patterns and Trends in China


Intergenerational social mobility and marital sorting by socioeconomic status have long been regarded as key indicators of societal openness. Since China’s economic reform, a sharp rise in economic inequality has coincided with declining social mobility, as individuals’ socioeconomic status increasingly mirrors that of their parents. At the same time, marital sorting by education has intensified, exacerbating inequality among Chinese families. While both trends suggest a growing degree of social closure, how they reinforce each other remains poorly understood. In this talk, I first review recent research on trends in social mobility and marital sorting in China. I then introduce a new measure of social closure, defined as the intergenerational association in educational attainment at the family level. Using a simple decomposition, I demonstrate how intergenerational educational mobility at the individual level and marital sorting have jointly shaped the evolution of social closure in China, and how the relative importance of these forces has differed between men and women.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.



About the Speaker 
 

Xiang Zhou headshot.

Xiang Zhou is Professor of Sociology at Harvard University. He is also a faculty affiliate at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, and Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. His research broadly concerns inequality, education, causal inference, and statistical and computational methods. His work has appeared in American Sociological Review, American Journal of Sociology, Social Forces, Journal of Political Economy, American Journal of Political Science, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, PNAS, among other peer-reviewed journals. Before coming to Harvard, Zhou worked as a postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University. He received a PhD in Sociology and Statistics from the University of Michigan in 2015.



Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 


Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Xiang Zhou, Professor of Sociology, Harvard University
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Heather Rahimi
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On February 26, 2025 the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions hosted a discussion on the role of industrial policy in U.S.-China competition, featuring insights from Skyline Scholars Loren Brandt from the University of Toronto and Xiaonian Xu from the China Europe International Business School, as well as Senior Fellow Mary Lovely from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The panelists examined the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

Before moving to a question and answer session moderated by SCCEI Co-Director Scott Rozelle, each panelist shared their insights on the topic through short-form presentations.



China’s Growth: From Industrialization to Innovation
Panelists highlighted the transformation of China’s economy, characterizing its past expansion as a result of rapid industrialization rather than a so-called "economic miracle." They described China’s growth in two stages: an initial phase driven by market expansion and a later phase, emerging after 2008, where state-led stimulus measures played a dominant role.

It was noted that China’s post-industrialization period has led to economic stagnation, as capital accumulation peaked in 2005, leaving excess capacity in key sectors. With investment-driven growth slowing, experts emphasized the need for a shift toward innovation. However, this transition requires structural changes, including stronger rule of law, well-functioning markets, and better incentives for entrepreneurship. While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

While China excels in commercialization, it still lags behind other leading economies in basic and applied research, critical components for sustained innovation.

China’s Industrial Dominance: Successes and Costs
The discussion also analyzed China’s dominance in industries such as lithium batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels, and shipbuilding. The country’s success in these sectors was attributed to industrial policies that strategically direct state resources into key industries. However, these policies come with economic inefficiencies, including excessive production capacity and stagnating productivity growth.

While China’s industrial policies aim to reduce reliance on foreign technology and foster indigenous innovation, they have also led to concerns about global trade imbalances. For instance, China’s trade surplus in manufactured goods now significantly surpasses that of historical export champions Germany and Japan, disrupting global markets. Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Despite substantial investments in research and development, overall productivity growth has slowed, raising questions about the long-term viability of its industrial policies.

Trade Tensions and U.S. Policy Responses
The panelists also explored how China’s development model has triggered trade tensions with the U.S. and other nations. They noted that industrial subsidies, state ownership, forced technology transfers, and non-tariff barriers have led to accusations of unfair trade practices. In response, the U.S. has imposed tariffs, blocked WTO dispute resolution mechanisms, and debated revisions to trade agreements, including the Phase 1 trade deal.

Some participants suggested that while U.S.-China relations remain contentious, future shifts in U.S. foreign policy—such as improved U.S.-Russia ties under the new Trump administration—could influence the direction of trade negotiations with China. However, national security concerns and economic competition in emerging sectors like AI and clean energy will likely keep tensions high.

Looking Ahead
The discussion collectively emphasized that China’s economy will face significant challenges if it doesn’t move from an investment-driven approach to one centered on innovation. While China continues to exert influence in key industries, questions remain about its ability to sustain long-term growth without addressing underlying inefficiencies. Meanwhile, U.S. trade policies will play a crucial role in shaping the future of global economic competition.

The event underscored the complexity of U.S.-China economic relations, with industrial policy at the heart of the debate. As both countries navigate these challenges, the global economy will continue to feel the ripple effects of their evolving competition.

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Political Economy and Governance Research Program banner blending China's forbidden city with Shanghai's skyline.
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SCCEI Launches New Research Program on China’s Political Economy and Governance

SCCEI's newest research program seeks to advance empirical, multidisciplinary insights into China’s political economy, including how political institutions, the political environment, and the economic system influence each other and shape the allocation of resources, production, and distribution of wealth in society.
SCCEI Launches New Research Program on China’s Political Economy and Governance
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Decoding China’s Economic Slowdown: A Roundtable Discussion

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions and Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis co-organized a closed-door roundtable on China's recent economic slowdown and produced summary report of the discussion.
Decoding China’s Economic Slowdown: A Roundtable Discussion
Craig Allen speaks at SCCEI 2024 conference
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Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China

Craig Allen, the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, spoke on the evolving dynamics of technological leadership between the U.S. and China and their implications for the rest of the world.
Silicon Showdown: Craig Allen Unpacks the Competition for Technology Leadership between the U.S. and China
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During this SCCEI event, expert panelists Xiaonian Xu, Loren Brandt, and Mary Lovely shared insights on the historical context, current trends, and future implications of China’s economic strategy and its impact on global trade.

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Heather Rahimi
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Political Economy and Governance Research Program banner blending China's forbidden city with Shanghai's skyline.

The Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) is pleased to announce the launch of the Political Economy and Governance (PEG) Research Program. This program aims to provide empirical, multidisciplinary insights into China's political economy by examining the intricate interplay between political institutions, the political environment, and the economic system.

PEG is led by Stanford scholars Professor Jennifer Pan and Professor Yiqing Xu. Professor Pan specializes in the study of political communication, digital media, and authoritarian politics. Her research explores how governments and citizens interact in the digital age, with a specific focus on China. Professor Xu is an expert in quantitative methods and causal inference, particularly as they apply to political economy and governance in China. His research leverages advanced statistical techniques to study political institutions, media influence, and policy outcomes in authoritarian and transitional regimes. Pan and Xu combine their research interests and expertise to form the newest SCCEI research program.

At launch, Pan and Xu identified two key research areas for the program: China's digital environment and public opinion and ideology.

Research on China’s digital environment investigates how social media platforms are utilized by individuals and communities, what online activities reveal about societal attitudes, and how information circulates within and beyond China's borders. This empirical and computational approach sheds light on the complexities of online engagement and its broader social, political, and economic implications.

The study of public opinion and ideology explores how the Communist Party of China and societal forces construct ideological narratives to foster compliance, guide political behavior, and sustain governance. By analyzing large-scale public discourse and behavioral data, the research offers insights into the interaction between political institutions, belief systems, and mass opinion in China’s political landscape.

Through these efforts, the Political Economy and Governance Research Program aspires to contribute meaningfully to discussions surrounding China's social and economic development, providing valuable insights for academic scholars, policymakers, and international stakeholders seeking to understand China's role in the global economy.

For more information, visit the official PEG research page.

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SCCEI's newest research program seeks to advance empirical, multidisciplinary insights into China’s political economy, including how political institutions, the political environment, and the economic system influence each other and shape the allocation of resources, production, and distribution of wealth in society.

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The diffusion of high-yielding crop varieties has been a key driver for agricultural productivity. This study examines the relationship between the adoption of high-yielding crop varieties of two staple crops—wheat and maize—and infant mortality in rural China. Using data from 1954 to 1987, we find a significant reduction in infant mortality linked to high-yielding crop varieties diffusion, an association that remains robust even after excluding the Great Famine years. We investigate potential mechanisms driving this relationship, including increased grain production, improved infant nutrition, and changes in maternal characteristics. Additionally, our analysis unveils a spectrum of heterogeneous relationships between high-yielding crop varieties adoption and infant mortality across factors such as infant gender, maternal characteristics, and policy regulation. These findings reaffirm the positive and lasting benefits of dissemination of high-yielding crop varieties for human welfare and provide valuable policy insights for developing nations grappling with food and nutritional insecurity.

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PNAS Nexus
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Scott Rozelle
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The Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions and the Hoover History Lab are pleased to present a talk by Hoover Research Fellow Dian Zhong on her new publication, The Silent Withdrawal: China’s Declining Female Workforce Poses a National Challenge. Scott Rozelle, SCCEI Co-Director, will moderate the conversation. 

The Silent Withdrawal: China's Declining Female Workforce Poses a National Challenge by Dian Zhong, published by the Hoover History Lab and Hoover Institution (Book Cover).

In The Silent Withdrawal, Dian Zhong reveals a striking reversal in China’s once-celebrated gender equality, as women increasingly withdraw from the workforce despite higher education levels. Highlighting the policy missteps and the unintended consequences of pro-natalist measures, alongside the transformation of feminism from state collaboration to a force of resistance, Zhong calls for bold reforms to reconcile women’s economic empowerment with demographic challenges, steering China toward a more inclusive future.

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About the Author
 

Dian Zhong headshot

Dian Zhong is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a member of the Hoover History Lab, focusing on the comparative histories of developing countries during the twentieth century. In addition to her Hoover appointment, Zhong also teaches the course 'Comparative Development of Latin America and East Asia' at Stanford University. Previously, Zhong was a lecturer in Portuguese at Beijing Foreign Studies University and a teaching and research assistant at the School of Government, Peking University.

Zhong is an experienced translator and interpreter proficient in Mandarin, Portuguese, and English, providing services for major international organizations such as the G20 and BRICS (the economic group of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). She has published extensively on topics such as the political economy of development, comparative political institutions, regime change, geopolitics, and China’s foreign policies toward Latin America. Her current research explores how rising feminism in China impacts existing challenges such as demographic shrinkage, risks of brain drain, labor market imbalances, and the transition from a low-skill, labor-intensive economy to a knowledge-based economy.

Zhong received her PhD in political science from Peking University.



Parking and Directions


Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall (616 Jane Stanford Way) on the 4th floor of the East wing. For more detailed information on venue location and parking instructions, please visit this webpage
 


Event Partners
 

Hoover History Lab and Stanford Center on China's Economy and Instituitions' logos

 


Scott Rozelle, Co-Director, SCCEI

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Dian Zhong, Research Fellow, Hoover Institution
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Despite investments in teacher education programs, teacher shortages persist in rural areas of many low- and middle-income countries. Using data from 1860 tuition-free students, we examine factors influencing enrollment in China's Tuition-Free Normal Education (TNE) program and their implications for teacher recruitment and retention in rural schools. Descriptive analysis and OLS regression reveal that TNE students mostly come from larger, poorer families, and enroll for job security and financial benefits. Many aspire to teach but resist rural placements, risking non-compliance. These findings can guide the design and reform of programs to attract qualified teachers to rural areas in China and abroad.

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Teaching and Teacher Education
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Scott Rozelle
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There is a widespread perception that China’s digital censorship distances its people from the global internet, and the Chinese Communist Party, through state-controlled media, is the main gatekeeper of information about foreign affairs. Our analysis of narratives about the Russo-Ukrainian War circulating on the Chinese social media platform Weibo challenges this view. Comparing narratives on Weibo with 8.26 million unique news articles from 2,500 of some of the most trafficked websites in China, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States (totaling 10,000 sites), we find that Russian news websites published more articles matching narratives found on Weibo than news websites from China, Ukraine, or the United States. Similarly, a plurality of Weibo narratives were most associated with narratives found on Russian news websites while less than ten percent were most associated with narratives from Chinese news sites. Narratives later appearing on Weibo were more likely to first appear on Russian rather than Chinese, Ukrainian, or US news websites, and Russian websites were highly influential for narratives appearing on Weibo. Altogether, these results show that Chinese state media was not the main gatekeeper of information about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for Weibo users.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Authors
Jennifer Pan
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Skyline Scholars Seminar Series


Tuesday, April 29, 2025 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way



The Origin and Diffusion of Policy Ideas in China


Drawing on two decades of Chinese policy documents and government work reports, we document over 116,000 distinct policy ideas and trace their complete life cycles. Our analysis reveals three main findings. First, in the 2000s, policy innovation was highly decentralized—more than 80% of ideas originated from local governments, driven primarily by local officials. Second, after 2013, the central government shifted its incentives by ceasing rewards for bottom-up innovation and instead promoting the diligent enforcement of centrally assigned policies, leading to significant centralization of policy innovation. Third, focusing on industrial policies, we highlight tradeoffs between centralization and decentralization. Top-down industrial policies tend to be less aligned with local comparative advantages and are less effective at spurring industrial growth, revealing the cost of centralization. Conversely, under decentralization, strategic competition among local politicians can distort policy diffusion, reducing the fit between policies and local contexts and undermining their effectiveness. Quantitatively, our results indicate that since 2013, the costs of centralizing policy innovation in China have far outweighed its benefits.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar.



About the Speaker 
 

Shaoda Wang headshot

Shaoda Wang is an Assistant Professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, a Skyline Scholar (2024-2025) at the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI), a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and an affiliate of the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis in Development (BREAD). He also serves as the deputy faculty director of the China branches of the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics (BFI-China) and the Energy Policy Institute at UChicago (EPIC-China). He is an applied economist with research interests in development economics, environmental economics, and political economy, with a regional focus on China. He holds a BA from Peking University and a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley. Prior to joining Harris, he was a Postdoctoral Scholar in the Department of Economics and Energy Policy Institute (EPIC) at the University of Chicago.

Interested in meeting with Professor Wang one-on-one? 
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Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 


Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Shaoda Wang, Skyline Scholar; Assistant Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
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