Stanford University

Labor Market Experience and Returns to College Education in Fast Growing Economies

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China’s college admission increased by five times between 1998 and 2009. While the college premium for young workers declined, that for senior workers increased in this period. In our general equilibrium model, a rising demand for skills (education and experience) explains both trends. A demand shock leads to an expansion in the elastic college enrollment, depressing the college premium for young workers. With an inelastic supply, experienced college graduates continue to enjoy a rising premium. Despite the low immediate premium, young individuals continue to flood into colleges because they foresee high lifetime returns. Simulations match empirical results well.

Journal Publisher
The Journal of Human Resources
Authors
Hongbin Li

Job Preferences and Outcomes for China's College Graduates

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Despite private enterprises dominating China's labour market, college-educated workers are still highly concentrated in the state sector. Using data from the Chinese College Student Survey, we find that 64 per cent of students in the sample expressed a strong preference for state sector employment. We also identify several factors associated with receiving job offers from the state sector, including being male, holding urban hukou status, being a member of the CCP, performing well on standardized tests, attending elite universities and having higher household income or high-status parental backgrounds. These findings suggest that despite China's economic transition, the private sector may still struggle to attract highly educated workers.

Journal Publisher
The China Quarterly
Authors
Hongbin Li
Lingsheng Meng

Heuristics in Self-Evaluation: Evidence form the Centralized College Admission System in China

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Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students' admission outcomes at 10-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim and achieve higher but are at greater risk of overshooting. The discontinuity reveals that, despite the educational and labor market consequences, students' self-evaluation based on exam scores is subject to information-processing heuristics.

Journal Publisher
Review of Economics and Statistics
Authors
Hongbin Li

CANCELLED: Daniel Yi Xu | Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset Markets: Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism in China

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This event has been cancelled. 

We hope to see you at another SCCEI event!


Firm Selection and Growth in Carbon Offset Markets: Evidence from the Clean Development Mechanism in China


Carbon offsets could reduce the global costs of carbon abatement, but there is little evidence on whether they truly reduce emissions. We study carbon offsets sold by manufacturing firms in China under the United Nations’ Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). We find that offset-selling firms increase carbon emissions by 49% in the four years after starting an offset project, relative to a matched sample of non-applicants. We explain this increase in emissions by jointly modeling the firm decision to propose an offset project and the UN’s decision of whether to approve. In estimates of our model, CDM firms increase emissions due to both the selection of higher-growth firms into project investment (40 pp of the total) and the causal effect of higher efficiency, post-investment, on firm scale and therefore emissions (9 pp).


About the Speaker 
 

Daniel Yi Xu profile picture.

Daniel Yi Xu is a Professor of Economics at Duke University and a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research focuses on the intersection of productivity, international trade, and industrial organization. Professor Xu’s current research agenda involves the use of large-scale microdata to model and estimate a broad range of dynamic individual firm decisions and to examine how these decisions impact resource allocation, industry performance, and economic growth, particularly in developing and emerging economies.

His most recent work has been published in leading economics journals, including the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, RAND Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics, and Management Science. Professor Xu is currently a co-editor of the American Economic Journal: Microeconomics and an associate editor of the RAND Journal of Economics. He previously served as co-editor for the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Development Economics. Additionally, he has been an associate editor for the American Economic Journal: Applied, Economic Journal, Journal of Industrial Economics, Journal of International Economics, Quantitative Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics.
 


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Daniel Yi Xu, Professor of Economics, Duke University
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The Turning Point? U.S.-China Relations, Economic Growth, and the Race for Technology Leadership

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Big Data China 3rd Annual Conference (Virtual)

The Turning Point? U.S.-China Relations, Economic Growth, and the Race for Technology Leadership


The event will be broadcast live from this webpage and YouTube.

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Join the third annual conference of Big Data China, a collaborative project by CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics and Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions (SCCEI). China experts in the policy and academic communities will discuss the key challenges in U.S.-China relations, recent shifts in China's economic governance, and the global implications of technology competition with China.

 

AGENDA
 

8:00 - 8:30 am: Keynote Speech: Craig Allen, President, U.S.-China Business Council
 

8:45 - 9:45 am: Panel 1: Charting U.S.-China Relations: Key Challenges and Choices for the Incoming Administration


Moderator: Scott Kennedy, CSIS

Panelists:
Wendy Cutler, Asia Society Policy Institute
Bonnie S. Glaser, German Marshall Fund Indo-Pacific
Dennis Wilder, Georgetown University

10:00 - 11:00 am: Panel 2: China’s Economic Stimulus: A Short-Term Fix or Path to Sustainable Recovery?


Moderator: Scott Rozelle, Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions

Panelists:
Ling Chen, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Andrew Polk, Trivium China
Margit Molnar, OECD
Logan Wright, CSIS

11:15 - 12:15 pm: Panel 3: Decoupling vs. De-risking: The Competitive Dilemma in Tech Innovation


Moderator: Ilaria Mazzocco, CSIS

Panelists:
Greg Allen, CSIS
Rebecca Arcesati, MERICS
Samm Sacks, Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center
Kevin Xu, Interconnected
 

FEATURING
 

Craig Allen keynote speaker Big Data China conference December 10, 2024 Big Data China Conference panelists for December 10, 2024.

EVENT PARTNERS
 

SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream

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Do the Pathways of Child Development Before Age Three Matter for Development at Primary School? Evidence from Rural China

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The literature has shown that cognitive and non-cognitive development before the age of three is associated with children’s levels of development at later ages. However, the extent to which the different pathways of cognitive and non-cognitive development before age three (between 6–12 months and 22–30 months of age) are associated with developmental outcomes at primary school age remains unknown. This study aims to examine this research question using three waves of longitudinal data collected from 1087 children aged 9 to 10 years and their primary caregivers in rural China. Results demonstrated four pathways of cognitive and non-cognitive development between 6–12 months and 22–30 months of age. The four pathways include: “never delayed”, “persistently delayed”, “improving”, or “deteriorating.” Children that experienced either persistently delayed or deteriorating development had lower levels of cognitive and non-cognitive development and performed worse academically than children that were never delayed when they were 9–10 years old. Maternal education attainment, family assets, and whether the child was born prematurely all predicted the child’s entry into different developmental pathways. Findings suggest that early childhood development screening and interventions that aim to facilitate healthy early development among children under three years old are needed for rural China’s young children.

Journal Publisher
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications
Authors
Scott Rozelle

Jing Cai | Effects of Referring Business Partners on Firm Networks and Performance

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Winter 2025)


Friday, January 17, 2025 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way


Effects of Referring Business Partners on Firm Networks and Performance


Firms often struggle to find and connect with suitable suppliers and clients, hindering growth and industrial development.  We surveyed 700 Chinese brush pen industry firms to understand their supplier-client networks and implemented a targeted referral program to address these barriers. The program introduced four treatment groups: screened referrals between likely compatible firms with a subsidy for the first transaction, random referrals with a subsidy for the first transaction, screened referrals without a subsidy, and control where firms were observed but received no referrals. We found that screened referrals with subsidies significantly increased subsequent transactions while partially crowding out prior partnerships; information-only referrals showed no impact. The referrals increase revenue, profit, and work hours among suppliers and growth-oriented clients. Suppliers upgraded product quality, while clients expanded product variety into higher-quality offerings, indicating complementary improvements within the supply chain. The intervention also shifted firms’ beliefs about the value of partnerships, spurring increased search efforts and forming additional non-referred partnerships, suggesting pessimistic beliefs as a critical friction in firm-to-firm access. Overall, the referrals yielded substantial private and social returns, underscoring the potential of targeted matchmaking interventions to drive industrial development.

Preview Prof. Cai’s research in a recent VoxChina article on Firm-to-Firm Referrals.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker 
 

Jing Cai headshot

Jing Cai is an Associate Professor at the University of Maryland. She received her PhD from the University of California at Berkeley in 2012. Her research areas are development economics and household finance. Her current research examines the growth of micro-enterprises and SMEs, impacts of tax incentives on firm behavior, and diffusion and impacts of financial innovations in developing countries. Dr. Cai is a Co-Chair of the firm sector of the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and a fellow of the Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD). She currently serves as an associate editor of the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, the Journal of Development Economics, and the Economic Development and Cultural Change.


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Jing Cai, Associate Professor, University of Maryland
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Adaptation and Psychometric Evaluation of the Breastfeeding Self-efficacy Scale to Assess Exclusive Breastfeeding: A Cross-sectional Study in Rural China

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Background
Despite the benefits of exclusive breastfeeding, the proportion of exclusively breastfed children remains low in rural China. Self-efficacy is one of the most crucial modifiable factors predicting breastfeeding behavior. However, existing instruments in China do not specifically measure self-efficacy for exclusive breastfeeding but rather measure self-efficacy for any breastfeeding. Furthermore, they have been validated only in high-income Chinese settings. We sought to adapt and validate an instrument to measure exclusive breastfeeding self-efficacy within rural Chinese contexts.

Methods
We introduced relevant items to Dennis’ Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale-Short Form (BSES-SF), which can assess maternal self-efficacy for exclusive breastfeeding. It was then implemented in a multistage random cluster sampling design and cross-sectional survey with home-visit interviews among women 0–6 months postpartum (n = 654) in the rural areas of four counties in Sichuan, China. We performed item-total and adjusted item-total correlations, as well as exploratory factor analysis to remove redundant items and determine the latent factor structure. We further applied confirmatory factor analysis to test the dimensionality of the scale. We then assessed the reliability of the scale and conducted tests of predictive and divergent validity. Known group comparisons were made by primiparous status and breastfeeding support level. We compared the validated Exclusive Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale with the BSES-SF in terms of reliability and validity to explore the added value of scale modification.

Results
Our modification of the BSES-SF to target exclusive breastfeeding produced 19 items. This was further reduced to 15 items based on adjusted item-total correlations and exploratory factor analysis, forming the Exclusive Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale. This scale had three dimensions: “Breast milk supply and quality,” “Breastfeeding skills,” and “Exclusive breastfeeding” subscales. The Exclusive Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale demonstrated strong internal consistency and overall reliability with a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.91. Predictive and divergent validity and known group comparison assessments supported its validity. Robust psychometric evaluations demonstrated enhanced validity and reliability compared to the original BSES-SF.

Conclusions
Our Exclusive Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale is valid and reliable for measuring exclusive breastfeeding self-efficacy within rural Chinese contexts and is ready for adaptation and validation for clinical and programmatic use elsewhere, particularly within LMICs.

Journal Publisher
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
Authors
Scott Rozelle

Getting Ahead in Today’s China: From Optimism to Pessimism

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Against the backdrop of China’s post-1978 economic transformation, recent challenges such as COVID-19 have prompted speculations about rising popular pessimism regarding current inequalities and opportunities to get ahead. This study compares findings from three new nationally representative surveys conducted in 2023 with three earlier surveys from 2004, 2009, and 2014. Results reveal a significant attitudinal shift, with 2023 respondents expressing markedly more critical views about the fairness of current inequality patterns. Respondents in the 2023 surveys increasingly attribute poverty versus wealth to structural factors like unequal opportunities rather than to variations in individual merit. Respondents also reported lower expectations for future income growth compared with the earlier surveys. While not indicating imminent threats to political stability, such trends suggest that China’s leaders will likely face increasing skepticism and even critical popular responses as they try to mobilize their citizens to confront the serious challenges that China faces in coming years.

Journal Publisher
The China Journal
Authors
Scott Rozelle

Does Chinese Industrial Policy Work? A Big Data China Event

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The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this online event, set for November 19, 6:30-7:30 am US PT, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics are releasing a new Big Data China feature that reviews recent literature evaluating the successes and failures of industrial policy in China and the conditions that shaped policy outcomes.

Trustee Chair Deputy Director Ilaria Mazzocco will moderate a discussion among experts on industrial policy in China today and its implications for the Chinese economy, global trade, and how policymakers in other countries should respond. Panelists will include Lee Branstetter (Carnegie Mellon University), Panle Jia Barwick (UW-Madison), Chloé Papazian (OECD), and Gerard DiPippo (Bloomberg Economics).  

FEATURING

Panle Jia Barwick
Todd E. and Elizabeth H. Warnock Distinguished Chair and Professor, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison		Ilaria Mazzocco
Senior Fellow, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Lee Branstetter
James Walton Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University		Gerard DiPippo
Senior Geo-Economics Analyst, Bloomberg Economics
Chloé Papazian
Trade Policy Analyst, Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD		 

EVENT PARTNERS
 

SCCEI and CSIS logos

Virtual Livestream 

Panle Jia Barwick
Lee Branstetter
Gerard DiPippo
Ilaria Mazzocco
Chloé Papazian
Panel Discussions
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