Past research has documented the use of victimization narratives by governments to cultivate political support and shape policy preferences. In the early 1990s, China’s official media began amplifying a victimization narrative centered around the “Century of Humiliation,” a period of foreign invasion and subjugation of China spanning the first Opium War in 1840 to the founding of the PRC in 1949. How does the promotion of this victimization narrative affect popular views on national identity, foreign policy, and domestic regime support? 

The data. To explore impacts of the victimization narrative, researchers conducted an online survey of 1,890 netizens in China, selected for representativeness across characteristics like education, income, and ideological predisposition. The survey required respondents to read one of four randomly assigned prompts and then fill out several scales on national identity and policy preferences.  

The first prompt was adapted from a Chinese grade school textbook and characterized the Boxer Rebellion, an important uprising in 19th century China, as a legitimate and heroic movement against cruel foreign powers. Researchers used this prompt as a proxy for state media victimization narratives. The second prompt was a more balanced take on the rebellion that detailed its violent excesses. The third scenario described the Olympic success of China’s national women’s volleyball team. The fourth was a control prompt about interior design. Measuring the variations in people’s responses to the scales depending on which prompt they read allowed researchers to causally link the impact of victimization narratives on public sentiment.  

Percentage of articles in the People’s Daily mentioning the victimization narrative, 1946-2015

Victimization narrative increases sense of national indignity and shame. Researchers used two standardized scales to gauge national identity. A Victim Sentiments Index captured the sense of national shame and victimhood of respondents, their suspicion of foreigners, and national superiority. The Patriotic Sentiments Index captured more positive feelings of attachment for one’s country. Reading the victimization narrative caused respondents to report higher scores on the Victim Sentiments Index (by 0.13 standard deviations) but not on the Patriotic Sentiments Index. The effect was particularly strong among individuals without a college degree (0.2 standard deviations) and was absent among those with a college degree. This finding supports the view that the victimization narrative increases people’s attachment to victim sentiments, which can be a force driving public opinion.

Victimization narrative triggers heightened anti-foreign attitudes. Researchers used a series of questions to gauge sentiment toward foreign countries and foreign policy. Respondents who read the victimization narrative displayed a heightened suspicion of foreign governments' international disputes and were more likely to view foreign actions as attempts to slow China’s rise rather than legitimate moves to protect national interest.  

The victimization narrative also raised suspicion of foreign intentions and contributed to an increase in support for more hawkish foreign politics, particularly with respect to the U.S.-China trade dispute and U.S. sanctions against Huawei. Instead of promoting cooperation or negotiation, memories of a victimization narrative strengthened public preference for retaliation. This effect was not present among respondents with a college degree or higher.  

Victimization narrative drives domestic political support. The authors find that recalling memories of national humiliation strengthens support for China’s political system on a standardized scale, but only among respondents without a college degree. Despite a small average effect in the study sample, the researchers expect the victimization narrative may have a substantial impact on public support for China’s political system because the sample was more educated than China’s wider population: 41% of the sample participants had a post-secondary education, compared to only 7% of the wider population.

Victimization narrative powerful tool in shaping public opinion. Taken together, the findings indicate that the victimization narrative propagated by China’s government can effectively provoke anger toward foreign countries while boosting domestic support. The authors note that because most respondents have been exposed to a victimization narrative for so long, the impact of the experiment may be an underestimate of the true effect of the victimization narrative on their views. They also note that previous research has shown an excessive focus on victimization may weaken foreign relations, stall international collaboration, or even shift popular blame against the state.