China’s 2010 census revealed a population of 1.34 billion, 50 percent urban, 13.3 percent above age sixty, and with 118.06 boys born for every 100 girls. In this article, we discuss how gender imbalance, population aging, and their interaction with rapid urbanization have shaped China’s reform era development and will strongly shape China’s future. These intertwined demographic changes pose an unprecedented challenge to social and economic governance, contributing to and magnifying the effects of a slower rate of economic growth. We organize the analysis according to the proximate determinants of economic growth: first, labor input and its productivity; second, capital investment and savings; and finally, multi-factor productivity, including social stability and governance. We argue that the economic, political, and social context that turns labor and capital inputs into economic outputs is perhaps the most important and least understood arena in which demographic change will shape China’s rise.

Abstract: Using field survey data collected by the authors, this chapter first describes groundwater markets in northern China that have been developing rapidly in the past two decades. Groundwater markets in the area are informal, localized and mostly unregulated. There is little price discrimination, and institutional characteristics tend to be similar in both high- and low-income villages. The privatization of tubewells is one of the most important driving forces encouraging the development of groundwater markets. Increasing water and land scarcity are also major determinants. The chapter also explores the impacts of the emergence of the groundwater markets on agricultural production – including crop water use and crop yields – and farmer income in northern China. Results indicate farmers that buy water from groundwater markets use less water than those that have their own tubewells. However yields of water buyers are not negatively affected. This is probably because water buyers exert more efforts to improve water use efficiency. Results also show that other things held constant, the crop incomes of water buyers are not statistically different from those of well owners. The chapter also finds that groundwater markets in northern China are not monopolistic, supporting the notion that they offer poor rural households affordable access to irrigation water.

We report on the results of a randomised controlled trial conducted among over 2,000 children in 60 elementary schools in rural Shaanxi Province, North-west China. We find that providing children with daily iron supplements for six months improved children’s haemoglobin levels and standardised maths scores. In comparison, educating parents about nutrition and anaemia in a special parents meeting produced a modest impact on children’s haemoglobin levels. We also find heterogeneous intervention effects by children’s gender, anaemia status and boarding status. Overall, iron supplementation is more effective. However, given its low cost and simple implementation, parental education should still be considered.

This study estimates the impact of road expansion on off-farm activities in rural China. To achieve this goal, econometric models that capture the impact of road expansion on migration and local off-farm works are developed and estimated using individual data. Estimation results show that road expansion encourages farmers to participate in local off-farm work rather than migrate. In addition, road expansion also has a significant impact on the working time and income of local off-farm work.

The education of poor and disadvantaged populations, particularly those from minority subgroups, has been a long-standing challenge to education systems in both developed and developing countries (e.g., World Bank 2001, 2004; Glewwe and Kremer 2006; Planty et al. 2008). For example, over the past decade in the United States the high school dropout rate of Hispanic students has remained at least twice as high as that of white students (Aud et al. 2011). Using data from the German Microzensus and the German Socio-Economic Panel, Alba, Handl, and Müller (1994) found that, relative to young Germans with identical sociodemographic characteristics, Italian, Turkish, and Yugoslav children are overrepresented in the lowest academic track of the German school system.

Using individual data collected in rural China and adopting Heckman’s two-step function, we examined the impact of childcare and eldercare on laborers’ off-farm activities. Our study finds that having school-aged children has a negative impact on rural laborers’ migration decisions and a positive impact on their decision to work in the local off-farm employment market. As grandparents can help to take care of young children, the impact of preschoolers is insignificant. Having elderly family to care for decreases the income earned by female members of the family. Although both men and women are actively engaged in off-farm employment today in rural China, this study shows that women are still the primary care providers for both children and the elderly. Therefore, reforming public school enrollment and high school/college entrance examination systems so that migrant children can stay with their parents, this will help rural laborers to migrate to cities. The present study also calls for more public services for preschoolers and the elderly in rural China.

Abstract: The goal of the present paper is to examine how the expansion of the economy from 2000 has affected rural off-farm labor market participation. Specifically, we seek to determine whether off-farm labor increased after 2000, what forms of employment are driving trends in off-farm labor and whether gender differences can be observed in off farm employment trends. Using a nationally representative dataset that consist of two waves of surveys conducted in 2000 and 2008 in six provinces, this paper finds that off farm labor market participation continued to rise steadily in the early 2000s. However, there is a clear difference in the trends associated with occupational choice before and after 2000. In addition, we find that rural off-farm employment trends are different for men and women. Our analysis also shows that the rise of wage-earning employment corresponds with an increasing unskilled wage for both men and women.

China’s rapid development and urbanization over the past 30 years have caused large numbers of rural residents to migrate to urban areas in search of work. This has created a generation of children who remain behind in rural areas when their parents migrate for work. Previous research has found mixed impacts of parental migration on the educational achievement of left-behind children (LBC), perhaps because of methodological deficiencies and lack of recognition of the heterogeneity of this population of children. Our study attempts to examine the impact of six types of parental migration on the academic achievement of a rural junior high school sample. Our study uses a panel of 7148 junior high school students to implement a difference-in-difference analysis and finds that parental migration has a negative and significant impact on the academic achievement of junior high school students. Our study suggests that the Chinese Government should implement measures to dismantle barriers to the human capital accumulation of LBC to ensure sustainable economic growth and human capital development in China.

In this paper we have two objectives - one empirical; one methodological. Although China's leaders are beginning to pay attention to health care in rural China, there are still concerns about access to health services. To examine this issue, we use measure of travel distances to health services to examine the nature of coverage in Shaanxi Province, our case study. The mean distance by road to the nearest health center is more than 6 km. When we use thresholds for access of 5 and 10 km we find that more than 40 (15) percent of the population lives outside of these 5 (10) kilometer service areas for health centers. The nature of the access differs by geographical region and demographic composition of the household.. The methodological contribution of our paper originates from a key feature of our analysis in which we use Geographic Information System (GIS) network analysis methods to measure traveling distance along the road network. We compare these measures to straight-line distance measures. Road distances (produced by network analysis) produce measures (using means) that are nearly twice as great as straight-line distances. Moreover, the errors in the measures (that is, the difference between road distances and straight-line distances) are not random. Therefore, traditional econometric methodsof ameliorating the effects of measurements errors, such as instrument variables regression, will not produce consistent results when used with straight-line distances.

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