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This paper describes the current level of human capital in China and seeks to identify a number of education-related challenges that may slow down the nation’s economy from transitioning to high-income status. Relying on recent census-based data from OECD for the rest of the world and using data from the 2015 Micro-Census for China, the authors show that the low levels of education of China’s labour force is really a problem that has its roots in the past (in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s). In recent years (since 2000), China has been investing heavily in education as shown by the increasing the share of youth, including rural youth, attending high school. Despite this recent effort to raise the nation’s human capital, the education system still faces several challenges in trying to provide high-quality education for all youth. First, the government must figure out a way to overcome the relatively low rates of participation in high school by rural students. Second, there is concern that many vocational schools, especially those in rural areas, cannot deliver quality education. Finally, the paper will show that many rural students may be unprepared due to poor early childhood development outcomes.

 

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Journal of Contemporary China
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Scott Rozelle
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Despite massive investments in teacher professional development (PD) programs in developing countries, there is little evidence on their effectiveness. We present results of a large-scale, randomized evaluation of a national PD program in China in which teachers were randomized to receive PD; PD plus follow-up; PD plus evaluation of the command of PD content; or no PD. Precise estimates indicate PD and associated interventions failed to improve teacher and student outcomes after one year. A detailed analysis of the causal chain shows teachers find PD content to be overly theoretical, and PD delivery too rote and passive, to be useful.

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American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
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Prashant Loyalka
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We assess and compare computer science skills among final-year computer science undergraduates (seniors) in four major economic and political powers that produce approximately half of the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics graduates in the world. We find that seniors in the United States substantially outperform seniors in China, India, and Russia by 0.76–0.88 SDs and score comparably with seniors in elite institutions in these countries. Seniors in elite institutions in the United States further outperform seniors in elite institutions in China, India, and Russia by ∼0.85 SDs. The skills advantage of the United States is not because it has a large proportion of high-scoring international students. Finally, males score consistently but only moderately higher (0.16–0.41 SDs) than females within all four countries.

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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Authors
Prashant Loyalka
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Neurocysticercosis (NCC) significantly contributes to morbidity in developing countries. We recently published a study of prevalence and risk factors in school-aged children in three mountainous areas in Sichuan province of western China. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) on data from that study to guide intervention planning, here we examine risk factors grouped into three broad interventional categories: sociodemographics, human behavior, and sources of pork and pig husbandry. Because neuroimaging is not easily available, using SEM allows for the use of multiple observed variables (serological tests and symptoms) to represent probable NCC cases. Data collected from 2608 students was included in this analysis. Within this group, seroprevalence of cysticercosis IgG antibodies was 5.4%. SEM results showed that sociodemographic factors (b = 0.33, p < 0.05), sources of pork and pig husbandry (b = 0.26, p < 0.001), and behavioral factors (b = 0.33, p < 0.05) were all directly related to probable NCC in school-aged children. Sociodemographic factors affected probable NCC indirectly via sources of pork and pig husbandry factors (b = 0.07, p < 0.001) and behavioral variables (b = 0.07, p < 0.001). Both sociodemographic factors (b = 0.07, p < 0.05) and sources of pork and pig husbandry factors (b = 0.10, p < 0.01) affected probable NCC indirectly via behavioral variables. Because behavioral variables not only had a large direct effect but also served as a critical bridge to strengthen the effect of sociodemographics and sources of pork and pig husbandry on probable NCC, our findings suggest that interventions targeting behavioral factors may be the most effective in reducing disease.
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Environmental Research and Public Health
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Alexis Medina
Scott Rozelle
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Abstract and Keywords
Although global exporters, foreign producers, and domestic producers have been battling each other in China’s chocolate market for decades, it is not clear how Chinese consumers respond to the various brands. This chapter discusses the implementation of two tasting experiments to test the preferences of Chinese consumers. A ‘blind condition’, where participants were not told about the chocolate brands, was compared with a ‘non-blind condition’, where participants were informed about the brands before tasting. The results suggest that brand information does influence tasting experience. Chinese consumers have higher preferences for imported brands as compared with domestic brands or foreign brands which are produced in China.
 
Keywords: blind condition, Chinese consumers, preference of Chinese consumers, chocolate brands, tasting experiments, experiments, imported brands
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Oxford Scholarship Online
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Scott Rozelle
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Introduction Primary healthcare (PHC) serves as the cornerstone for the attainment of universal health coverage (UHC). Efforts to promote UHC should focus on the expansion of access and on healthcare quality. However, robust quality evidence has remained scarce in China. Common quality assessment methods such as chart abstraction, patient rating and clinical vignette use indirect information that may not represent real practice. This study will send standardised patients (SP or healthy person trained to consistently simulate the medical history, physical symptoms and emotional characteristics of a real patient) unannounced to PHC providers to collect quality information and represent real practice.

Methods and analysis 1981 SP–clinician visits will be made to a random sample of PHC providers across seven provinces in China. SP cases will be developed for 10 tracer conditions in PHC. Each case will include a standard script for the SP to use and a quality checklist that the SP will complete after the clinical visit to indicate diagnostic and treatment activities performed by the clinician. Patient-centredness will be assessed according to the Patient Perception of Patient-Centeredness Rating Scale by the SP. SP cases and the checklist will be developed through a standard protocol and assessed for content, face and criterion validity, and test–retest and inter-rater reliability before its full use. Various descriptive analyses will be performed for the survey results, such as a tabulation of quality scores across geographies and provider types.

Ethics and dissemination This study has been reviewed and approved by the Institutional Review Board of the School of Public Health of Sun Yat-sen University (#SYSU 2017-011). Results will be actively disseminated through print and social media, and SP tools will be made available for other researchers.

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BMJ Open
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Scott Rozelle
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Unlike performance incentives for private sector managers, little is known about performance incentives for managers in public sector bureaucracies. Through a randomized trial in rural China, we study performance incentives rewarding school administrators for reducing student anemia -- as well as complementarity between incentives and orthogonally assigned discretionary resources. Large (but not small) incentives and unrestricted grants both reduced anemia, but incentives were more cost-effective. Although unrestricted grants and small incentives do not interact, grants fully crowd-out the effect of larger incentives. Our findings suggest that performance incentives can be effective in bureaucratic environments, but they are not complementary to discretionary resources. 

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Journal of the European Economic Association
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Grant Miller
Scott Rozelle
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This research uses a mixed-methods analysis to examine how being left behind impacts the cognition/education,  nutrition,  and  mental  health  outcomes  of  children  in  rural  China.  We find  that  parental  migration  increases  household  income  and  decreases  care,  and  these impacts  vary  based  on location,  socioeconomic  status,  and  age.  We  also  find  that  families generally recognize these impacts. Our findings offer a more general view of the effects of being  left  behind  on  childhood  outcomes  than  previous  research,  which  often  used  small sample sizes from limited geographic areas or age ranges. Although our research focuses on China, the findings are relevant to other developing nations where working-age individuals often  migrate  domestically  or  internationally  in  search  of  work,  such  as  Mexico  and  the Philippines. 

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The Developing Economies
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Scott Rozelle
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This study examines the impact of social engagement on elderly health in China. A two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) regression approach was used to examine the causal relationship. Our dataset comprises 9253 people aged 60 or above from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) conducted in 2011 and 2013. Social engagement significantly improved the self-rated health of the elderly and reduced mental distress, but had no effect on chronic disease status. Compared with the rural areas, social engagement played a more important role in promoting the elderly health status in urban areas. Social engagement could affect the health status of the elderly through health behavior change and access to health resources. To improve the health of the elderly in China and promote healthy aging, the government should not only improve access to effective medical care but also encourage greater social engagement of the elderly.

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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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Scott Rozelle
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Abstract: If children with common vision problems receive and use eyeglasses, their educational performance rises. Without proper treatment, visually impaired children may not achieve educational gains and could suffer from poor mental health. We use a randomized controlled trial to study the impact of an eyeglasses promotion program in rural China on the mental health of myopic primary school students. Three measures of mental health are used: learning anxiety, physical anxiety, and scores on the Mental Health Test (MHT). Our empirical analysis showed that on average, the treatment has small and insignificant for learning anxiety and MHT, and a small but significant reduction in physical anxiety. However, subgroup analysis reveals that myopic students who study more intensively see their learning anxiety and physical anxiety reduced after being provided with eyeglasses. In contrast, students with the lower study intensity suffer a rise in learning anxiety after receiving eyeglasses. A potential mechanism for the differing impacts is the increase in teasing reported among low study-intensity students that does not occur for high study-intensity students. Care should be taken to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of in-school vision programs.
 
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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Authors
Huan Wang
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