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The goal of this paper is to describe and analyze the relationship between ability tracking and student social trust, in the context of low-income students in developing countries. Drawing on the results from a longitudinal study among 1,436 low-income students across 132 schools in rural China, we found a significant lack of interpersonal trust and confidence in public institutions among poor rural young adults. We also found that slow-tracked students have a significantly lower level of social trust, comprised of interpersonal trust and confidence in public institutions, relative to their fast-tracked peers. This disparity might further widen the gap between relatively privileged students who stay in school and less privileged students who drop out of school. These results suggest that making high school accessible to more students may improve social trust among rural low-income young adults.

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School Effectiveness and School Improvement
Authors
Prashant Loyalka
Scott Rozelle
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In the past, iron-deficiency anemia in children has had a widespread presence in rural China. Given the recent economic growth in China, it is unclear if anemia among infants/toddlers remains a problem. The objective of this study is to measure the anemia rate in rural Chainese infants/toddlers across four major subpopulations and attempt to discover the sources of anemia. We use a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative data on 2909 rural Chinese infants/toddlers and their families with qualitative interviews with 84 caregivers of infants aged 6 to 30 months. Quantitative analysis indicates that the overall prevalence of anemia (43%) within sampled infants/toddlers was high, especially in comparison to the low rates of stunting (2–5%), being underweight (2%), and wasting (2–4%). These findings suggest that in rural China, anemia stems from the poor quality of the diets of infants/toddlers, rather than insufficient quantities of food being consumed. Qualitative analysis illustrates the factors that are contributing to anemia. Caregivers do not understand the causes of this condition, the symptoms that would lead one to recognize this condition, or the steps needed to treat their child with this condition. The findings offer a comprehensive understanding of the limited awareness of anemia among rural Chinese caregivers.

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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
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Scott Rozelle
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China’s competitive education system has produced notably high learning outcomes, but they may be costly. One potential cost is high levels of anxiety. China has launched several initiatives aimed at improving student mental health. However, little is known about how effective these programs and policies are. The goal of this paper is to examine anxiety levels among children and adolescents in rural China, and to identify which subpopulations are particularly vulnerable to anxiety. Data are aggregated from ten different school-­‐‑level surveys conducted in rural areas of five provinces between 2008 and 2015. In total, 50,361 students were evaluated using a 100-­‐‑item, 9-­‐‑subcategory Mental Health Test (a variation of the Children’s Manifest Anxiety Scale). Seven 21 percent of students were at risk for overall anxiety. However, over half of students were at risk for at least one subcategory of anxiety. Students at higher risk for anxiety included students from poorer counties and families, female students, secondary students, and students with lower levels of academic performance. Many students in rural China are at risk for anxiety, and certain student subpopulations are particularly vulnerable. We suggest that China’s government review and update student mental health programs and policies.

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Environmental Health and Research
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Scott Rozelle
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The overall goal of this study is to examine whether infant feeding practices differ between mothers and grandmothers in rural China. We randomly sampled 1383 caregivers of infants aged 18 to 30 months living in 351 villages across 174 townships in nationally designated poverty counties in rural areas. Results show that a high fraction of caregivers of 18- to 30-month-old children living in low-income areas of rural China do not regularly engage in positive infant feeding practices. Only 30% of children in our sample achieved adequate dietary diversity. Only 49% of children in our sample were fed meat in the day prior to survey administration. Few caregivers reported giving any vitamin supplements (such as calcium or iron supplements) to their children. We find that 33% of the children were cared for by grandmothers rather than mothers, and that grandmothers feed a less diversified diet to children than do mothers. Most (84%) caregivers rely solely on their own experiences, friends, and family members in shaping their feeding behaviors. Overall infant feeding practices are poor in rural China. Grandmothers engage in poorer feeding practices than do mothers. Grandmothers have improved their feeding practices compared to when their own children were young. Our results suggest shortcomings in the quality of infant feeding practices, at least in part due to an absence of reliable information sources.

Key words: child development, feeding practices, information sources, rural China

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Family & Community Health
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Scott Rozelle
Alexis Medina
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Using the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III (BSID-III), we examine the rates of developmental delays among children aged 0–3 years in four major subpopulations of rural China, which, altogether, account for 69% of China's rural children and 49% of children nationwide. The results indicate that 85% of the 3,353 rural children in our sample suffer from at least one kind of developmental delay. Specifically, 49% of the children have cognitive delays, 52% have language delays, 53% have social emotional delays, and 30% have motor delays. The results suggest that these high rates are due to two main factors in the parenting environment. The first is micronutrient deficiencies, which are reflected in a high prevalence of anemia (42%). The second is an absence of interactive parenting inputs, such as storytelling, reading, singing, and playing. Although we find these inputs to be significantly and positively associated with better developmental outcomes, only a small share of caregivers engage in them. With this large and broad sample, we show that, if China hopes to build up enough human capital to transition to a high-income economy, early childhood development in rural areas urgently requires more attention. 
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Journal of Comparative Economics
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Scott Rozelle
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Education of poor and disadvantaged populations has been a long-standing challenge for education systems in both developed and developing countries. In China, millions of students in rural areas and migrant communities lag far behind their urban counterparts in terms of academic achievement. When they fall behind, they often have no way to catch up. Many of their parents have neither the skills nor the money to provide remedial tutoring; rural teachers often do not have time to give students the individual attention they need. Given this, there is growing interest by both educators and policymakers in helping underperforming students catch up using computer assisted learning (CAL). While CAL interventions have been shown to be effective internationally and elsewhere in China, traditional software-based CAL programs are difficult and costly to implement. An online version of CAL (OCAL), however, may be able to bypass many of offline CAL’s implementation problems and enhance the remedial tutoring experience. Unfortunately, there is little empirical evidence on whether OCAL programs can be effective in improving the quality of rural primary school education in developing countries. The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of an OCAL intervention on the academic and non-academic performance of students and to explore the mechanism behind OCAL’s impact. Importantly, we also aim to assess the cost effectiveness of the new OCAL program versus traditional CAL interventions. To achieve these objectives, we carried out a randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving over 1650 fifth grade students in 44 schools in rural areas and migrant communities across China. Students in the 22 treatment schools attended two 40- minute OCAL sessions during their computer class each week for one semester; the students in the other 22 schools were in the control group and did not receive any intervention. According to our findings, OCAL improved overall English scores of students in the treatment group relative to the control group by 0.56 standard deviations. This impact is large when compared with offline CAL programs. We found that OCAL also led to a positive change in the attitudes of students towards English learning and towards student aspirations for their future education level. We found three possible explanations for OCAL’s impact. After rejecting the possibility of the Hawthorne Effect or self-efficacy-induced changes, we believe interest-oriented stimulation is the main source of improvement among students. The chance for comparison and competition with peers, as well as customized remedial question banks tailored to each student’s individual needs, likely contributed to the measured increases in academic performance among students in our sample. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the OCAL program is more cost-effective than traditional offline CAL, a comparison which is significant for policymakers as it indicates high potential for OCAL program expansion. 

Keywords: Education, computer assisted learning, randomized controlled trial, online learning
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Working Paper
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Scott Rozelle
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In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of reading programs at improving the reading skills and academic achievement of primary school students in rural China. Using survey data on 4108 students, we find that students exhibited low levels of reading achievement, independent reading quantity, and reading confidence in the absence of any treatment. However, our results also suggest that properly designed treatments may improve the reading and academic outcomes of students. Specifically, we found that increased access to independent reading materials coupled with effective teacher training led to significant improvements in student reading skills, math test scores, and Chinese test scores. We believe that these improvements are due to changes in reading instruction and the attitudes of teachers toward reading. These findings indicate that encouraging higher reading quantity and providing high-quality reading instruction are important components for programs that seek to improve student outcomes in developing country settings.

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China Economic Review
Authors
Huan Wang
Scott Rozelle
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A recently developed small area estimation technique is used to geographically derive detailed estimates of consumption-based poverty and inequality in rural Shaanxi, China. These estimates may be helpful for targeting since there is wide variability in poverty rates within Shaanxi but low levels of inequality within most counties and townships. We also investigate whether including environmental variables in the equation used to predict consumption and poverty improves upon typical approaches that only use household survey and census data. Ignoring environmental variables appears likely to produce targeting errors.

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Environment and Developmental Economics
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Scott Rozelle
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Using rural household panel data from three Chinese provinces, this paper identifies determinants of long-term poverty and tests the duration dependence on the probability to leave poverty. Special emphasis is given to the selection of the poverty line and inter-regional differences across provinces. Results suggest that the majority of population seems to be only temporary poor. However, the probability to leave poverty for those who were poor is differently affected by poverty duration across provinces ranging from no duration dependence in Zhejiang to highly significant duration dependence in Yunnan. The number of nonworking family members, education, and several village characteristics seem to be the most important covariates.

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World Development
Authors
Scott Rozelle
Number
4
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In contrast to its decentralized political economy model of the 1980s, China took a surprising turn towards recentralization in the mid-1990s. Its fiscal centralization, starting with the 1994 tax reforms, is well known, but political recentralization also has been under way to control cadres directly at township and village levels. Little-noticed measures designed to tighten administrative and fiscal regulation began to be implemented during approximately the same period in the mid-1990s. Over time these measures have succeeded in hollowing out the power of village and township cadres. The increasing reach of the central state is the direct result of explicit state policies that have taken power over economic resources that were once under the control of village and township cadres. This article examines the broad shift towards recentralization by examining the fiscal and political consequences of these policies at the village and township levels. Evidence for this shift comes from new survey data on village-level investments, administrative regulation and fiscal oversight, as well as township-level fiscal revenues, expenditures, transfers (between counties and townships) and public-goods investments.

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The China Quarterly
Authors
Scott Rozelle
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