Along with native-born Chinese Americans, Chinese immigrants have become a large and visible demographic group in American science, technology, and engineering. However, the pressure of potential federal investigations since the 2018 launch of the “China Initiative” by the U.S. Department of Justice has provided scientists of Chinese descent in the U.S. with higher incentives to leave and lower incentives to apply for federal grants. What are the long-term consequences of the China Initiative on scientists of Chinese descent in the U.S. and the global leadership of the U.S. in science and technology?    

The data. Researchers utilized Microsoft Academic Graph to analyze trends in the migration of U.S.-based Chinese scientists. Microsoft Academic Graph is a comprehensive database that tracks over 200 million scientists from over 25,000 institutions authoring over 200 million scientific publications through 2021. Using this data, the authors identified the working countries of researchers through their academic affiliations on publications and tracked those with Chinese surnames who initially published in the U.S., but later changed their affiliations to institutions abroad.

Additionally, an online survey of 1,304 U.S.-based scientists of Chinese descent was conducted between December 2021 and March 2022 to understand the impact of the China Initiative on the scientific community. 

Scientists of Chinese descent play an outsized role in U.S. science. Previous research has shown that China has been the most important foreign supplier of U.S.-based scientists for more than two decades. Among all 2020 U.S. doctoral degrees in science and engineering, 17% (roughly 5,800 of 34,000) went to foreign students from China. The vast majority of such PhD recipients then stay in the U.S. Between 2005 and 2015, approximately 87% of China-born, non-citizen, new PhDs in science and engineering reported they would stay in the U.S.

Scientists of Chinese descent: departures from the U.S. over time

The China Initiative accelerated out migration from the U.S. The researchers identified a total of 19,955 scientists of Chinese descent who began their careers in the U.S. but left for other countries, including China, between 2010 and 2021. The number of Chinese-descent scientists migrating out of the U.S. has steadily increased from 900 in 2010 to 2,621 in 2021. Part of the reason for this rise are “pull factors” from China, including China’s large and rapidly growing investments in science, high social prestige and attractive financial rewards tied to positions in Chinese institutions, and capable research collaborators and assistants. 

But this research also reveals a significant “push factor.” Following the implementation of the China Initiative in 2018, departures of U.S.-based, China-born scientists increased by 75%. Among the scientists of Chinese descent who left the U.S. in 2010, 48% moved to mainland China and Hong Kong, and 52% moved to other countries. As of 2021, the percentage of relocated scientists moving to China increased to 67%. The life sciences field has witnessed the most significant exodus abroad, with over 1,000 life scientists leaving in 2021.  

Scientists of Chinese descent experience uneasiness, fear. According to the online survey, 35% of Chinese scientists in the U.S. felt unwelcome; 72% did not feel safe as academic researchers; 42% were fearful of conducting research; 65% worried about collaborations with China; and 86% perceived it was harder to recruit top international students compared to five years ago. Additionally, 83% had experienced insults in a nonprofessional setting in the previous year. Engineering, computer science, and life science faculty, federal grant awardees, senior faculty, and males were more likely to feel fearful of conducting research in the U.S.

Of the five possible reasons for “not feeling safe as an academic researcher in the U.S.,” most survey respondents pointed to fears of “U.S. government investigations into Chinese-origin researchers” (67%) and “Anti-Asian hate and violence in the U.S.” (65%). A smaller portion expressed other fears, such as that “U.S. government officials often attack the Chinese government or Chinese policies” (38%), “My family, friends, or collaborators might be targeted by the U.S. or Chinese government in retaliation for something I say or do” (37%), and “Others might report what I say or do to the U.S. or Chinese government” (31%).

However, despite an overall fearful sentiment, 89% of respondents indicated their desire to contribute to U.S. leadership in science and technology.

Survey responses among scientists of Chinese descent

Chinese scientists avoid federal grants, consider leaving U.S. The largest single source of funding for basic research in the U.S. is the federal government. However, 45% of researchers with federal grants now wish to avoid applying for them, and 61% have considered leaving the U.S. Engineering and computer science faculty, senior faculty, and those at public institutions are more likely to avoid federal grants. Junior faculty and federal grant recipients are more likely to consider relocating abroad, which could impact the global competitiveness of the U.S. in science and technology. 

Of the 445 respondents who intended to avoid applying for federal grants, 84% indicated that this was “Because I am afraid that I would have legal liability if I made mistakes in forms and disclosures,” while 65% reported that this was “Because I worry that my collaborations with Chinese researchers or institutions would place me under suspicion.”  

Chinese talent is important for continued U.S. leadership in science. The research suggests that attracting scientific talent from China and keeping scientists of Chinese descent from returning to China or moving to other countries requires alleviating fears and cultivating a welcoming environment for conducting scientific research. U.S. science and society should continue to attract Chinese scientists to maintain U.S. global leadership in science and technology.