Education
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Stanford Center for International Development Twelfth Annual Huang Lian Memorial Lecture

The Real China Threat: Why Might We Need to Worry About a Stagnating China?

Reception: 4:30 - 5:00

Lecture: 5:00 - 6:00

Huang Lian was a doctoral student from the People's Republic of China. He enrolled in the Economics Department at Stanford University in the fall of 1997 after just completing a Master’s degree from the Graduate School of the People's Bank of China. Talented and diligent, Huang Lian came to the United States to seek higher professional training, and planned a career in China working on economic policy. In June 1999, he died in a tragic accident. SCID founded a lecture series as a memorial.


Scott Rozelle holds the Helen Farnsworth Endowed Professorship at Stanford University and is Senior Fellow in the Food Security and Environment Program and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) for International Studies, the Stanford Center for International Development (SCID) and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He is also an adjunct professor at five universities in China and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Dr. Rozelle's research focuses almost exclusively on China’s rural economy. For the past 15 year, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In recent years Rozelle spends most of his time co-directing the Rural Education Action Project (REAP), a research organization with collaborative ties to CAS, Peking University, Tsinghua University and other universities that runs studies to evaluate China’s new education and health programs. In recognition of this work, Professor Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards. Among them, he became a Yangtse Scholar (Changjiang Xuezhe) in Renmin University of China in 2008. In 2008 he also was awarded the Friendship Award by Premiere Wen Jiabao, the highest honor that can be bestowed on a foreigner. In 2009, Rozelle also received in 2009 the National Science & Technology Research Collaboration Award, a prize given by the State Council.

This lecture is sponsered by SCID.

Koret-Taube Conference Room
Gunn-SIEPR Building
366 Galvez Street
Stanford University

Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
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Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.

His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.

Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. His book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, was published in 2020 by The University of Chicago Press. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.

In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.

Faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Faculty Affiliate at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Scott Rozelle Speaker
Lectures
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In the late 1990s and early 2000s, China’s Ministry of Education embarked on an ambitious program of elementary school mergers by shutting down small village schools and opening up larger centralized schools in towns and county seats. The goal of the program was to improve the teacher quality and building resources in an attempt to raise the human capital of students in poor rural areas, although it was recognized that students would lose the opportunity to learn in the setting of their own familiar villages. Because of the increased distances to the new centralized schools, the merger program also entailed building boarding facilities and encouraging or mandating that students live at school during the week away from their family. Given the magnitude of the program and the obvious mix of benefits and costs that such a program entails there has been surprisingly little effort to evaluate the impact of creating a new system that transfers students from school to school during their elementary school period of education and, in some cases, making students live in boarding facilities at school. In this paper, our overall goal is to examine the impact of the Rural Primary School Merger Program on the academic performance of students using a dataset from a survey that we designed to reflect transfer paths and boarding statuses of students. We use OLS and Propensity Score Matching approaches and demonstrate that there is a large “resource effect” (that is, an effect that appears to be associated with the better facilities and higher quality of teachers in town and county schools) that is associated with the transfer of students from less centralized schools (such as village schools) to more centralized schools. Boarding, however, is shown to have a negative impact on academic performance. However, students who transfer to county schools benefit from the transfer regardless of where they start and whether they board.

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International Journal of Educational Development
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Scott Rozelle
Alexis Medina
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Assistant Professor of Health Policy and Management, University of North Carolina
Research Affiliate, Rural Education Action Program
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Sean Sylvia, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management at UNC’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. As a health and development economist, Dr. Sylvia’s research focuses on designing and evaluating innovative approaches to improve the delivery of health services in developing countries. In past and ongoing projects, he has studied the design of performance-based incentives for providers, the implementation of school-based health and nutrition programs, community health worker interventions to improve early childhood health and development, and the measurement of and interventions to improve the quality of primary care in low-resource settings.

Fluent in Mandarin, Dr. Sylvia has long-standing collaborations with researchers at a number of universities in China where he has directed several large-scale surveys and randomized trials. Prior to joining UNC, he worked as an Assistant Professor in the School of Economics at Renmin University of China. He also previously worked for the World Bank and was a predoctoral fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. Dr. Sylvia received his PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Maryland.

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In this paper we present new evidence on the impact of health and nutrition information on anemia rates from three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in rural China. Each RCT studies a different type of health education campaign designed in partnership with the Chinese government to reduce the prevalence of iron-deficiency anemia among rural primary school students. These campaigns include single and multiple face-to-face education sessions for parents at their children’s schools as well as dissemination of written health education materials. Across all three studies, we find little evidence of changes in blood hemoglobin concentration or anemia status. In contrast, in our two studies that also examined a multivitamin supplementation intervention, we find meaningful reductions in anemia.

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CESifo Economic Studies
Authors
Alexis Medina
Scott Rozelle
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China’s future economic growth is dependent on skilled and educated workers. However, recent studies have shown that only a little more than half of the students from poor, rural areas finish junior high school and enter academic or vocational high school. The low level of educational attainment of these students is not surprising given that China has a high level of poverty in rural areas, rapidly rising wages for unskilled work and a highly competitive education system. One problem behind the low rates of matriculation to high school is that, as early as grade 7, students may be misinformed about the returns to high school education and lack other career planning information and skills, such that they drop out before even graduating, lose motivation to perform well academically, and exclude high school from their future plans.

The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of providing information and career counseling in reducing dropout, improving academic performance, and increasing the number of grade 7 students who plan to attend high school in China’s poor, rural areas. To meet this objective, we conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) using a sample of 132 junior high schools and roughly 20,000 students in 15 nationally-designated poor counties in Shaanxi and Hebei provinces. In the RCT we randomly selected and provided training for junior high school teachers to give students either a) information on the returns and costs associated with higher levels of schooling or b) career counseling to help students plan for their school and career options. We then evaluated whether students dropped out less, performed better academically, or planned to matriculate in academic and vocational high school more.

Richard and Rhoda Goldman Conference Room

Prashant Loyalka Assistant Research Fellow, China Institute for Educational Finance Research, Peking University. Research Affiliate, Rural Education Action Project. Speaker
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When the computers arrived at Ma Guanghui’s primary school in China’s rural Qinghai Province, the principal worried his students would break them. It’s not that the third- and fourth-graders are a malicious bunch. They just wouldn’t keep their hands off the new machines.

“They were so enthusiastic because they had never seen computers before,” Ma said, mimicking how the children whacked the keyboards, poked the monitors and pounded the mice before realizing they work with just a click.

“They couldn’t leave them alone,” he said.

The 15 computers that were suddenly being used by about 60 students were part of an experiment to see whether educational software and computer-assisted learning techniques would boost the scores of China’s most disadvantaged students. It’s a question that Stanford researcher Scott Rozelle and his collaborators in the Rural Education Action Project have answered with a resounding “yes.”

An economist and senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Rozelle has worked for years to narrow the income and education gaps between China’s rural poor and urban middle-class. He’s now focusing much of his attention on bridging a digital divide that threatens to leave children without computer skills even farther behind.

His research – the first academic work to really measure those technological disparities – has revealed stark contrasts. While about 80 percent of Chinese students living in cities use the Internet at home, only 2 percent of those in rural areas have online access at home. No one is able to surf the Web at school, and few have access to working computers.

“This is probably the greatest digital divide of any country in the world,” Rozelle said during a March 22 conference at the newly opened Stanford Center at Peking University, where Ma and a few of his students came to discuss how computers have helped improve test scores.

Loaded with games and software that taught Ma’s students Mandarin, the computers provided by ADOC2.0 – a nongovernmental organization affiliated with the Acer computer company – had a quick payoff.

Within 10 weeks, test scores rose on average from the equivalent of a C-plus to a B.

“We were No. 1 in the whole school district,” Ma said. “All our students should have computers and Internet access”

Chinese officials agree. A 10-year-plan laid out by the government calls for every student in China to have access to the Internet.

“This is a very ambitious plan,” Zheng Dawai, a director in China’s Ministry of Education, said during the conference. “But the Internet is an important way to promote learning, especially in the rural areas.”

Rozelle says the costs of a bad education and missed opportunities for China's youngest generation are too big for China to ignore. Hundreds of thousands of migrants are making their ways from the countryside into big cities where jobs await.

But as wages go up, so will the demand for skilled labor. Being poor and looking for a job is one thing. Being poor and uneducated is another.

“Nearly 40 percent of China’s kids are in poor, rural areas,” Rozelle said. “What’s the nature of their education? Are they ready for a new era where you need to know how to use a computer and navigate the Web? We’re talking about more than 100 million rural kids going through the system without the skills they need.”

That premise sets the stage for a disenfranchised class, increased violence and greater poverty that can destabilize China and jeopardize its role as one of the world’s economic stars.

Rozelle’s goal is to influence Chinese policy with the results of his research and lead government officials to the decisions that will improve the health and education of the country's up-and-coming workforce.

He and his colleagues have already had success in tackling anemia, an iron deficiency that’s rampant in rural areas where diets are often unbalanced and consist of hardly any meat. Anemic children tend to do poorly in school because of the lethargy and lack of concentration that accompany the disease.

Thanks in large part to REAP studies that have shown students’ test score go up when they take vitamins or eat more meat and vegetables, the government has committed about $20 billion during the next decade to improving school lunches.

Now the REAP team is measuring the best ways to use technology to improve school performance so he’ll have the data he needs to convince government officials to move faster and spend more money on computer-assisted learning.

Along with computer manufacturer Dell Inc., Rozelle is now partnering with toy and game developer Mike Wood. Wood is the founder and CEO of SmartyAnts, a software program that teaches English as a second language and reading skills through a series of games where the player helps “teach” an ant avatar how to read, write and enjoy learning.

With the cost of technology getting cheaper – tablet computers can cost as little as $50 – Wood is looking for ways to get educational software into the hands of children in the world’s poorest areas.

“It’s possible to load a low-cost platform with top-notch software that’s personalized and will give kids from pre-K through sixth grade access to as good a curriculum as is available to the richest kids going to the richest private schools there are,” he said. “It’s possible. And it’s something we should be doing.”

Through his research and collaborations, Rozelle and his colleagues in the Chinese Academy of Sciences aim to convince Chinese officials that Wood is right.

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Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy,
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Room 3830, Anwai Datun Road, 11A
Beijing, 100101, P. R. China

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REAP Project Manager for Keeping Kids in School
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James Chu manages the Keeping Kids in School projects at REAP. He has five years of experience researching educational issues in China. His research experience involves extensive quantitative and qualitative fieldwork in Shaanxi province and Beijing migrant schools. He has also designed and implemented several projects in Beijing benefiting migrant students. He is fluent in Mandarin and received his MA in Sociology at Stanford University.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore whether an in-service life teacher training program can improve boarding students’ health, behavior, and academic performance.

Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial to measure the effect of life teacher training on student health, behavior, and academic performance among 839 boarding students in ten central primary boarding schools in Shaanxi. And the authors also tried to identify why or why not life teacher training works. Both descriptive and multivariate analysis are used in this paper.

Findings – The authors find significant improvements in health and behavior. Specifically, compared to boarding students in control schools, 15 percent fewer students in treatment schools reported feeling cold while sleeping at night. The results also showed that student tardiness and misbehaviors after class declined significantly by 18 and 78 percent, respectively. However, the in-service life teacher training program had no measurable impact on boarding students’ BMI-for-age Z-score, number of misbehaviors in class, and academic performance. The analysis suggests that improved communication between life teachers and students might be one mechanism behind these results.

Originality/value – This is the first empirical work which explored how to improve the welfare of boarding students via their life teachers. Because of the sudden increase in boarding students in rural China, it is almost certain that school personnel lack experience in managing boarding students. As such, one promising approach to improving student outcomes might be in-service training for life teachers.

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China Agricultural Economic Review
Authors
Huan Wang
James Chu
Scott Rozelle
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We estimate the effects of attending the first versus second-tier of higher education institutions on Chinese students’ at-college and expected post-college outcomes using various quasi-experimental methods such as regression discontinuity, genetic matching, and regression discontinuity controlling for covariates. Overall we find that just attending the first versus second-tier makes little difference in terms of students’ class ranking, net tuition, expected wages, or likelihood of applying for graduate school. The results do show, however, that just attending the first versus second tier makes it less likely that students will get their preferred major choice.

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Social Science Research
Authors
Prashant Loyalka
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