Caixin Media reports on REAP's research about the shockingly high school drop-out rate of China's rural students. To read the original article, click here.

Chen is among the millions of students in rural areas who quit school each year without completing high school. Although there are no official statistics, studies by various research institutions say one in three students in villages – some 3 million teenagers on average – quit school every year before earning a high school diploma.

Boys and girls in rural areas start leaving school at a much younger age than their peers in more developed regions. From 2007 to 2013, almost half the students in poor areas in the central and western parts of the country had left school by grade nine, a study published in December by the Rural Education Action Project (REAP), which involves the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Stanford University and several Chinese universities, found. The researchers, who studied 50,000 students, found something even more alarming: by grade 12, nearly two-thirds dropped out.

The 2010 census showed that 78 percent of the country's school-aged students lived in the countryside, and the research report said that "if dropout rates continue as they are today, increasing unemployment and widening inequality could hinder economic growth and stability on a national scale."

Nearly half of the dropouts REAP surveyed said they quit to find work so they could "broaden their horizons and enjoy new experiences." Another 30 per cent said they chose to leave because "everyone else is doing it."

Chen said that like many of his classmates he was bored in the classroom and did not see how his studies were helping his future.

"Some dropouts are pushed hard by teachers but they can't pass exams," said Hu Yongqiang, who left a school in rural Shaanxi when he was in grade nine. "So they run away."

Middle School Woes

Experts say rural junior middle schools – which cover the seventh to ninth years of school – are one of the biggest problems in the country's education system. Stark inequalities in the distribution of resources have led to this failure, said Wei Jiayu from the New Citizen Program, a non-profit group focusing on rural education.

The government spent an average of 900 yuan more each year on a student in an urban middle school than on a rural student, government data from 2013 show. A few rural junior middle schools with better teachers and facilities, like science labs and libraries, have higher university admission rates, but many others "are just a waste of time," Wei said.

A lack of qualified teachers in rural schools is one of the main turnoffs for students, an education official in the Qinba Mountains area of Shaanxi said. The REAP study found that teachers' qualifications were linked to their students' dropout rate. In schools where less than 30 percent of the teachers had a university degree, students dropped out at twice the rate compared to schools with more qualified staff.

Most dropouts are students labeled by teachers as poor performers, said Liu Chengbin, a professor of sociology at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in the central city of Wuhan. Many teachers tend to pay more attention to students with strong academic records the others, said Liu, because the amount of funding a school receives from the government is linked to exam scores.

"(Students' scores) are related to teachers' performance assessments and salaries as well," said a teacher from the Qinba Mountains area.

Some teachers even tried to persuade students who did poorly on tests to quit so average test scores would stay high, said Shi Yaojiang, a professor of education at Shaanxi Normal University in Xi'an.

And the problems continue into high school. Beijing spent more than 28,000 yuan per high school student in 2013, compared to nearly 6,900 yuan per student in the southwestern province of Guizhou and nearly 5,500 yuan in the poor central province of Henan, research by the education information portal eol.cn in 2015 found.

Left Out

Tens of millions of rural workers have moved to urban areas in recent decades, but the country's system of household registration, or hukou, makes it difficult for them to send their children to good schools in cities.

Migrants often have no choice but to leave their children in rural areas to be educated. A lack of parental supervision compounds many students' difficulties in rural schools, experts said.

Some 60 million children are left in China's villages to be raised by grandparents or relatives, official data show, and educators say this is contributing to problems keeping children in school. "(The high number of) dropouts is the result of long-term problems," said a high school teacher in the Qinba Mountains.

The REAP study also found that nearly three-quarters of rural children showed some signs of psychological trouble. The figure was just under 6 percent for students in cities.

Over 13 percent of children left in villages by parents quit school by their eighth year of school, researchers found, but only 8.6 percent of those who were raised by their parents in rural villages chose to drop out.

Researchers are concerned about the career prospects of those who have not completed their schooling. Scott Rozelle, a Stanford University professor who co-directed the study, said that as the country looks to shift from low-end manufacturing to services and value-added industries, the growing number of less-educated workers will be a burden on the economy.

"What do I do about the chickens?"

When assistant professor of medicine Eran Bendavid began a study on livestock in African households to determine impact on childhood health, he'd already anticipated common field problems like poorly captured or intentionally misreported data, difficulty getting to work sites, or problems with training local volunteers.

But he'd never gotten that particular question from a fieldworker before. It didn't occur to him that participating families, in reporting their livestock holdings, would completely omit the chickens running around at their feet, thereby skewing the data.

"They didn't consider chickens to be livestock," recalled Bendavid. Along with Scott Rozelle, the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow at FSI, and associate professor of political science and FSI senior fellow Beatriz Magaloni, Bendavid spoke to a full house last week on lessons learned from fieldwork gone awry. The return engagement of FSI's popular seminar, "Everything that can go wrong in a field experiment” was introduced by Jesper Sørensen, executive director of Stanford Seed, and moderated by Katherine Casey, assistant professor of political economy at the GSB. The seminar is a product of FSI and Seed’s joint Global Development and Poverty (GDP) Initiative, which to date has awarded nearly $7 million in faculty research funding to promote research on poverty alleviation and economic development worldwide.

Rozelle, co-director of the Rural Education Action Program, spoke of the obstacles to accurate data gathering, especially in rural areas where record-keeping is inaccurate and participants' trust is low. Arriving in a Chinese village to carry out child nutrition studies, said Rozelle, "we found Grandma running out the back door with the baby." The researchers had worked with the local family planning council to find the names of children to study, but the families thought the authorities were coming to penalize them for violation of the one-child policy.

Cultural differences make for entertaining and illuminating (if frustrating) lessons, but Beatriz Magaloni, director of FSI's Program on Poverty and Governance at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law had a different story to tell. Over the course of three years, her GDP-funded work to investigate and reduce police violence in Brazil - a phenomenon resulting in more than 22,000 deaths since 2005 - has encountered obstacle after obstacle. Her work to pilot body-worn cameras on police in Rio has faced a change in police leadership, setting back cooperation; a yearlong struggle to decouple a study of TASER International’s body worn cameras from its electrical weapons in the same population; a work site initially lacking electricity to charge the cameras or Internet to view the feeds; and noncompliance among the officers. "It's discouraging at times," admitted Magaloni, who has finally gotten the cameras onto the officers' uniforms and must now experiment with ways to incentivize their use. "We are learning a lot about how institutional behavior becomes so entrenched and why it's so hard to change."

Experimentation is a powerful tool to understand cause and effect, said Casey, but a tool only works if it's implemented properly. Learning from failure makes for an interesting panel discussion. The speakers' hope is that it also makes for better research in the future.

The Global Development and Poverty Initiative is a University-wide initiative of the Stanford Institute for Innovation in Developing Economies (Seed) in partnership with the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI). GDP was established in 2013 to stimulate transformative research ideas and new approaches to economic development and poverty alleviation worldwide. GDP supports groundbreaking research at the intersection of traditional academic disciplines and practical application. GDP uses a venture-funding model to pursue compelling interdisciplinary research on the causes and consequences of global poverty. Initial funding allows GDP awardees to conduct high-quality research in developing countries where there is a lack of data and infrastructure.

The Wall Street Journal quotes REAP's director Scott Rozelle, on the differences between President Hu and President Xi's approach to China's rural economy. To read the original article, click here.

After Mr. Hu retired in late 2012, and China deemphasized his push for a “harmonious society,” less happened with the foreign run rural banks. 

Citigroup Inc. says its network of Citi Credit outlets remains at four – including two in Hubei province – the same it reported in 2011. Spokesmen for both Standard Chartered Plc and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. each say their push into village banking stopped at one outlet.

The “three nong” issues remain important to Xi Jinping’s administration, according to the conclusion of a seminar on the subject held last September and covered in state-run media. (Mr. Xi didn’t attend the event.)

Not everyone agrees. The former Chinese leaders, Mr. Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao, “for all their indecisiveness in other parts of the economy did a tremendous amount for rural policy,” said Scott Rozelle, an expert on the sector at Stanford University. Mr. Rozelle added that during Mr. Xi’s administration “there’s been almost no effort and even some backtracking on the rural economy.”

On January 9th, China news station CCTV-13 aired a story about REAP's program to train family planning officials who previously enforced the one-child policy, to become early childhood education experts. The original segment was broadcast during News Hour at 10 pm, which has an audience of 1.2 billion viewers.

To view the original broadcast, please click here.

Sheng Menglu describes REAP's colloboration with Chinese one-child policy officials on an early childhood education program targeting rural toddlers. To read the original article, click here.

Last June, a lively and well-equipped preschool opened in one of the poorest villages in Shaanxi province, as part of a pilot project seeking ways to improve childhood development called Nurturing the Future. The pilot is being run by the national health commission and the Rural Education Action Plan (REAP), a joint research program conducted by Shaanxi Normal University in the northwestern city of Xi'an, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University in the U.S. state of California.

The experiment sees idle primary school classrooms and government offices in certain rural areas of Shaanxi Province converted into early childhood development centers like the one Mengjie and her grandmother visit.

The project's organizers also conducted the first study to look at how parenting practices influence the cognitive development of children in China's villages. That research, conducted from 2013 to 2015, found that the best time to have the most impact on rural children's educational performance and growth is during the first three years of life. Yue Ai, a senior researcher from Shaanxi Normal University, said data from the REAP studies of 100 rural villages across the country have consistently pointed to the same conclusion.

Many rural children start to fall behind in terms of cognitive development from an early age, said Luo Renfu, who develops the curriculum for preschools run by the project. In fact, two out of five youngsters aged 18 to 42 months showed significant delays in either cognitive or motor development, or both, the study found.

These early problems can, of course, impact children later in their education, Luo said. "One-third of rural children drop out of high school" because they can't catch up after their bad start.

A lack of parental interaction is strongly linked to developmental delays in rural babies, the study concludes. Another REAP study of over 1,400 toddlers aged 18 to 30 months found that only 5 percent of the parents tell stories to their infants and about 37 percent sang to them. None of the parents or grandparents interviewed reported talking to their babies regularly, often saying, "Why would I talk to the baby? It can't understand me yet!"

Researchers found that when parents spoke directly to their toddlers, the children experienced faster development in language and other cognitive skills. All learning after the age of three depends on this early training, Luo said.

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that millions of children in rural villages are left in the care of grandparents, who are semi-literate or too weak to care for children left by parents who move to cities to work, researchers said. One in five rural babies less than 12 months old is cared for by their grandparents, REAP researchers found. The number increases three-fold for toddlers aged 24 to 30 months.

Multiple international studies have shown that intervening in children's development during the first 1,000 days of their birth will produce the most impact at the lowest cost. Only two out of five villages in the study had a preschool for children above the age of three, and none of them had a day care for younger infants.

China spends 0.2 percent of its GDP on early childhood education and care facilities each year. This figure trails that of many developing countries, such as Argentina or Brazil, which spend 0.5 percent. Although China's education budget accounted for 4.3 percent of its national GDP in 2013, there is no specific allocation for early childhood development.

Cai Jianhua, an official at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said setting up a preschool in every village or rural community would cost about 60 billion yuan, or 0.1 percent of GDP. Cai also suggests training some of the current family planning officials to become early education teachers.

"Even if the country uses just a fraction of the energy it spends on family planning policies to improve the quality of rural education, it will have a brighter future," said Shi Yaojiang, a professor on education at Shaanxi Normal University.

Need for Skills

The country's changing economy requires people with more advanced skills, who can learn quickly, Zhang Linxiu, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said.

"The job market in the future will be quite different," she said. "People who have only farming skills will have trouble competing in cities."

Industries need highly skilled workers if the country is to transition from basic manufacturing to high-end products. In the 1960s and 1970s, "the world's factories" were South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico, said Scott Rozelle, co-director of REAP.

"But by the 1980s and 1990s, as wages increased, the unskilled garment workforce gradually transformed to highly skilled workers in the technology and service sectors," he said. "In Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, almost all workers have at least a high school diploma.

"This high-quality workforce guarantees these countries their industrial upgrade capability. In contrast, in Mexico, only 40 percent of the rural population has completed senior high school and a majority of its labor force had droped out from junior high … So the economy has lost its momentum."

A survey by Rozelle of automobile service shops in Shaanxi Province showed that 90 percent of the vocational school graduates didn't have access to the Internet. "So we have to ask what this low-skilled labor force will do in 20 years," he said.

Patti Waldmeir quotes REAP's director, Scott Rozelle, on how China's rural children are effected when parents migrate to cities for work. To read the original article, click here.

In China, left behind kids battle a social stigma, even if their material conditions are sometimes better than that of children living in homes without migrant income. Conventional wisdon, even among grandparents, is that the grandparents of leff-behind children are not capable of raising children who succeed in school or in life.

Experts are divided on how much children being raised by grandparents are hurt, in terms of educational or even physical development — or even if there is a negative impact at all.

There are trade-offs involved in having a migrant in the family, says Scott Rozelle, professor of economics at Stanford University and co-founder of the Rural Education Action Program, which has been collecting data on children in China’s remote rural areas for a decade. He conducted one of the largest studies so far of the state of China’s rural children, both with and without parents.

The study’s findings go against the conventional wisdom. “Left behind children are not the most vulnerable in rural China,” the study’s authors write, adding they “perform equally or even better than children living with parents on the health, nutrition and education indicators we examine”.

“Anemia prevalence, height for age and weight for age . . . mathematics, Chinese and English scores, junior high school and vocational high school dropout rates . . . are the same as those among children living with their parents.” In fact, children living with parents are in slightly worse health. Mr Rozelle is not sure why. “Maybe access to more resources helps, at least in part, to offset the negative effects of the absence of parental care,” he suggests. Or maybe those who choose to migrate are more intelligent than the average villager — “and so granny is smarter too”.

Mr Rozelle’s point is not that things are just fine for left behind kids — but that both kids living with and without parents in rural areas are vulnerable, and that increasing government resources targeted to helping left behind kids, such as surrogate parenting programmes, may be misspent.

Laurie Burkitt quotes REAP's director Scott Rozelle on the impact of China cancelling the one-child policy . To read the original article, click here.

Chinese leaders implemented the one-child policy in 1980 in an effort to rein in explosive population growth and help raise living standards. It was rooted in a Mao Zedong-era baby boom. China’s population rose by nearly half to about 807 million people in 1969 from when the Communist Party took over the country 20 years before. That led to fears among the leadership that China faced a population boom it couldn’t feed.

Demographers began to present a united front in 2000, arguing that China was dangerously close to falling below a replacement rate of 2.1 children for every woman. Activists stepped up opposition. Chen Guangcheng, the blind activist who famously escaped home confinement and made his way to the U.S. embassy in 2012, became well-known in China in the 2000s for opposing forced abortion.

China effectively hobbled the one-child policy in 2013, when it allowed couples to have two children if one parent came from a household without other siblings. It has also long allowed exceptions in some parts of the country.

Just like on Thursday, the 2013 move led to a frenzy of anticipation from baby-related businesses and a brief bump in shares of Chinese formula makers and other baby-related companies. It resulted in 1.45 million new birth applications as of the end of May, according to the most recent data from the China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission. But the figures have so far disappointed many demographers.

Even rural residents, many of whom have been exempt of the one-child policy, are reluctant to have bigger families, said Scott Rozelle, co-director of Stanford University’s Rural Education Action Program. “Fertility has collapsed in rural and poor areas,” said Mr. Rozelle. “Anyone there can have two or three babies, but no one wants that.”